This week looks to be relatively quiet in terms of data releases and market activity, providing investors with a chance to catch their breath and focus on analysis and forecasts. However, there are still some key events to watch out for:
Focus on Central Banks:
- US Federal Reserve (Fed): The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released, with investors searching for clues about future interest rate decisions. While the USD remains stable, a rate cut in May is still a possibility.
- European Central Bank (ECB): The minutes from the ECB meeting will also be released, but are unlikely to offer much new information.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): The RBNZ meets next week and is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, retail sales data for Q4 2023 could influence their future policy decisions.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): The RBA minutes from their February meeting will be released, providing insights into their thoughts on inflation and potential rate cuts later this year.
- Inflation and housing price data for January will be released. Strong reports could help improve the CAD’s position.
Currency Pair Movement:
- EUR/USD: The pair is currently stable around 1.0775, but could move higher if eurozone PMIs come in stronger than expected. ECB meeting minutes are unlikely to offer any new information.
- GBP/USD: The pair has found support at 1.2550 and could rise further if composite and services PMI data are positive. Composite PMI and services PMI data could offer support for the GBP.
- NZD/USD: The NZD is on a three-day winning streak and could continue its upward momentum if retail sales data is strong. NZD has been rising on positive services data and market expectations of rate cuts later in the year.
- AUD/USD: The AUD is also extending its gains, but faces a key test with the release of the RBA minutes. AUD has been gaining ground on market expectations of rate cuts later in the year.
- USD/JPY: The pair is consolidating around 150.01, with potential for further decline or a return to growth.
Other Markets:
- Brent oil: A correction to $81.35 is likely, followed by a possible rise to $85.90.
- Gold: The precious metal is consolidating around $2011, with potential for further gains or a pullback to $2011.08.
- S&P 500: The stock index is also in a consolidation phase, with potential for a decline to $4952.0 or a rise to $5078.0.
This week may be quieter than usual, but there are still several key events that could move the markets. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility and stay informed about the latest developments.
Categories: Market News
