The major currencies are seeing limited movement on Monday with investors awaiting key economic data releases this week. The focus is on central bank policies and interest rate forecasts in major economies. Inflation data and economic activity indicators will also be closely watched. The euro and pound are holding their ground despite mixed economic signals and ongoing speculation about rate cuts. Gold is showing positive momentum and could potentially break out of its recent range. The Aussie dollar remains under pressure due to weak economic data and a strong US dollar.

Euro (EUR):

• Holding steady despite German inflation rising slightly.
• Core inflation falls, supporting ECB’s hawkish stance.
• No rate cuts expected until inflation firmly back at 2% target.
• Euro maintains consolidation range around 1.0955.
• EUR/USD technical analysis: potential for upward movement.

British Pound (GBP):

• Rising slightly against USD.
• Wage growth expected to continue falling, easing inflation pressures.
• UK economy remains weak, but avoiding recession.
• Bank of England likely to hold rates steady until economic outlook improves.
• GBP/USD technical analysis: consolidation range with potential for decline.
• Pound consolidation around 1.2727.

Gold Eyes Potential Breakout:

• Gold price shows positive momentum after reintegration above key moving averages.
• Lower US Treasury yields and rising geopolitical risks support gold.
• Gold (XAU/USD) trending upwards on lower US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions.
• Potential bullish breakout from 6-week range seen at $2,090.

Aussie Dollar Extends Losses:

• Australian dollar continues to decline against the dollar.
• Consumer confidence remains weak in Australia.
• Strong US data puts pressure on Aussie.
• AUD/USD support seen at 0.6644 and 0.6601.

USD:

• Strengthening against most major currencies.
• Strong US jobs and inflation data boosting the dollar.
• Market expectations for early rate cuts fading.
• Fed seen waiting until mid-2024 to ease policy.

Other Key Points:

• Brent oil (BRENT) expected to rise on improving demand outlook.
• USD dominant, EUR holding steady, GBP and AUD weak.
• Focus on central bank policy decisions and inflation data.
• Geopolitical tensions and economic data impacting market sentiment.