The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision is the main near-term driver across major markets. A hawkish message could support the dollar, pressure EUR/USD and GBP/USD, keep USD/JPY elevated, and limit Bitcoin and gold recoveries. A less restrictive outlook could reverse some of these moves. The ECB’s October 29 decision and the BoJ’s October 30 announcement will add further uncertainty, making the coming sessions particularly sensitive to policy guidance and economic data.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- EUR/USD closed at 1.1177, down 0.39%, extending its decline as the dollar attracted demand ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
- The pair remains under pressure below 1.1200, with sellers maintaining control after the latest move lower. The euro has struggled to benefit from relatively stable eurozone lending figures, suggesting that monetary policy expectations and economic growth concerns remain more influential than individual data releases.
- Price action around 1.1155–1.1190 will be important in determining whether the decline continues or buyers attempt a short-term recovery.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve meeting: Markets expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, but investors will closely assess its comments for clues about a possible December increase. A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar further.
- Eurozone economic outlook: Weak growth prospects and persistent inflation create a difficult environment for the European Central Bank. Stagnation alongside elevated prices limits the euro’s appeal.
- French bond market: Moody’s decision to maintain France’s Aa3 rating has eased immediate fiscal concerns, although elevated borrowing costs and political uncertainty remain relevant.
- Economic releases: US consumer confidence, durable goods orders and housing data could influence dollar demand before the Fed announcement. Thursday’s preliminary US GDP and PCE inflation figures will also be important.
Support Levels
1.1155, 1.1121, 1.1115
Resistance Levels
1.1190, 1.1209, 1.1225, 1.1260, 1.1277, 1.1314
Forecast
- The near-term outlook remains bearish while EUR/USD struggles to regain 1.1200. A sustained break below 1.1155 could expose lower support near 1.1121.
- Conversely, weaker US data or a less hawkish Fed message could encourage a recovery toward 1.1209–1.1225. With the ECB decision approaching on October 29, volatility may increase as traders reassess the outlook for both economies.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- GBP/USD closed at 1.3339, down 0.17%, as the pound surrendered some of its recent resilience against the dollar.
- Sterling has retreated from the 1.3400 area and slipped below its recent trading range, indicating that buyers are becoming more cautious ahead of major US events and the UK’s upcoming Autumn Budget.
- The 1.3329 area is an important near-term reference. Holding above it could allow consolidation, while a decisive break lower would increase the risk of another decline toward 1.3300.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve policy: The Fed’s announcement and subsequent guidance are the immediate drivers. A hawkish tone or stronger-than-expected US data could extend the dollar’s advance and weigh on sterling.
- Bank of England expectations: Persistent UK inflation has kept expectations of a possible November rate increase elevated. This offers some support to the pound, although expectations alone may not be enough to offset broad dollar strength.
- Autumn Budget: Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal plans will be closely watched for evidence of spending discipline, tax changes and credible deficit management. A budget that reassures investors could help sterling recover; concerns over borrowing could undermine it.
- UK growth outlook: A relatively thin domestic calendar leaves GBP/USD particularly sensitive to movements in US yields and broader market sentiment.
Support Levels
1.3329, 1.3300, 1.3297, 1.3267, 1.3231, 1.3188
Resistance Levels
1.3362, 1.3385, 1.3407, 1.3485
Forecast
- Sterling faces a cautious near-term outlook while the pair remains below 1.3362. A break under 1.3329 could expose 1.3300 and then 1.3267.
- A recovery above 1.3362 would suggest that buyers are regaining some control, with 1.3385–1.3407 offering the next resistance zone. The Fed’s guidance and expectations surrounding the Autumn Budget are likely to determine whether the pound stabilizes or extends its decline.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Structure
- USD/JPY closed at 157.46 in the supplied data, up 0.25%, reflecting continued weakness in the yen. On October 28, the pair was trading around 157.8 as the dollar held near a two-week high ahead of the Fed decision.
- The pair remains supported by the substantial interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan. However, its proximity to levels that could prompt Japanese intervention makes further advances increasingly sensitive to official comments.
- Price action around 157.72–158.17 is important for determining whether buyers can extend the recovery or sellers regain control.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve decision: A hawkish message could keep US yields elevated and support USD/JPY, while softer guidance could encourage a correction.
- Bank of Japan meeting: The October 30 decision is the next major catalyst. Even if rates remain unchanged, signals of a possible December increase could strengthen the yen.
- Japanese inflation: September core inflation exceeded expectations, adding pressure on policymakers to address persistent price increases and the cost of imported goods.
- Intervention risk: Continued yen depreciation could prompt stronger warnings or direct action from Japanese authorities, potentially producing abrupt reversals.
- Market sentiment: Improving confidence in technology stocks has reduced demand for the yen, while US Treasury yields near 5% continue to favor the dollar.
Support Levels
157.28, 156.49, 155.49
Resistance Levels
157.72, 157.88, 158.17, 158.37, 158.59, 158.93
Forecast
- The short-term outlook remains tilted toward the dollar while USD/JPY holds above 157.28. A sustained move above 158.17 could open the way toward 158.37–158.59.
- However, a more hawkish BoJ message or intervention concerns could trigger a retreat toward 157.28 and potentially 156.49. With both central banks in focus this week, sharp movements in either direction remain possible.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Current Structure
- Bitcoin is hovering around the $80,000 area after struggling to sustain a recovery from its recent decline. The supplied market data shows a narrow trading corridor, with buyers attempting to stabilize the price while broader confidence remains subdued.
- Galaxy Digital argues that Bitcoin entered an accumulation phase after its June low, citing long-term holder resilience and institutional ETF purchases. However, recent fund outflows and the failure to reclaim higher price levels show that this bullish interpretation has yet to be confirmed by sustained price strength.
- The market is currently balancing the possibility of a recovery with the risk of another test of support. Bitcoin was trading near $80,736 on October 28 as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve policy: Investors expect rates to remain unchanged, making the Fed’s comments about inflation and a possible December increase especially important. A hawkish tone could weaken demand for cryptocurrencies.
- ETF flows: Recent large withdrawals have highlighted inconsistent institutional demand. Renewed inflows could help stabilize prices, but continued outflows would increase selling pressure.
- Investor sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index has retreated from 70 to 48, indicating that enthusiasm has cooled and investors are becoming more selective about risk.
- Technology earnings: Results from major technology companies could influence broader market sentiment and Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
- Long-term accumulation: Galaxy’s bullish outlook provides a counterargument to the prevailing caution, but a sustained recovery will depend on actual demand returning.
Support Levels
$79,800, $79,400, $79,000, $78,700, $76,900, $76,540
Resistance Levels
$80,300, $80,700, $80,900, $82,800, $84,500, $85,000
Forecast
- Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains neutral to bearish while it struggles to establish a stable position above $80,300. A decline below $79,400 could expose $79,000 and $78,700.
- A sustained recovery above $80,700–$80,900 would improve the outlook and bring $82,800 into view. ETF flows, technology earnings and the Fed’s policy message are likely to determine whether Bitcoin builds a base or extends its correction.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- Gold closed at $4,017 per ounce in the supplied data, up 0.47%, as prices attempted to stabilize around the psychologically important $4,000 level after testing a three-month low near $3,975.
- The recovery remains fragile. Gold has faced selling pressure following its recent breakdown from a broader trading range, while buyers have struggled to establish a sustained advance. The market is consolidating around $4,000 as investors wait for greater clarity on US interest rates.
- The immediate trading range is approximately $3,984–$4,029. A sustained move beyond either boundary could signal the next directional shift.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve decision: The Fed’s statement and press conference are the main immediate catalysts. A hawkish tone could lift the dollar and Treasury yields, making gold less attractive, while softer guidance could support a recovery.
- Inflation and energy prices: Persistent energy-related inflation creates uncertainty over the future path of interest rates. Any renewed rise in oil prices could reinforce expectations for tighter policy.
- Geopolitical tensions: Uncertainty in the Middle East may support demand for gold, although competing demand for the US dollar can limit its gains.
- Central bank outlook: The upcoming ECB and BoJ decisions may influence currency markets and indirectly affect gold through dollar movements and global bond yields.
- Market positioning: Recent liquidation and cautious investor sentiment have restrained buying, leaving gold vulnerable to further volatility around key economic announcements.
Support Levels
$3,984, $3,975, $3,945
Resistance Levels
$4,029, $4,062, $4,065, $4,073, $4,118, $4,127, $4,146, $4,179, $4,187, $4,218
Forecast
- Gold’s short-term outlook remains cautious while prices stay below $4,029–$4,065. A break below $3,984 could expose $3,975 and the lower support near $3,945.
- Conversely, a sustained recovery above $4,065 could open the way toward $4,118 and $4,146. The Fed’s assessment of inflation and future interest rates will likely determine whether gold can regain momentum or remains under pressure.
📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of October 28, 2026
| Instrument | Current Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | General Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1155 | 1.1225 | Further downside remains possible unless the euro reclaims 1.1200. |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Cautious bearish | 1.3329 | 1.3362 | US dollar strength and UK fiscal uncertainty may limit sterling’s recovery. |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish, with reversal risk | 157.28 | 158.17 | Yield differences favor the dollar, but BoJ policy and intervention risks remain significant. |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Neutral to bearish | $79,400 | $80,700 | A sustained recovery depends on renewed demand and the Fed’s policy signals. |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Cautious bearish | $3,984 | $4,065 | Gold needs stronger buying interest to overcome pressure from the dollar and interest-rate expectations. |
Categories: Market News
