Euro: Improving sentiment and expectations of further ECB tightening are offering support, although French fiscal concerns remain a considerable obstacle. British Pound: Sterling retains relative strength, but the upcoming Bank of England decision could determine whether its recovery continues. Japanese Yen: Intervention concerns are helping the yen recover, although the interest-rate gap continues to favor the US dollar. Bitcoin: Institutional withdrawals, security concerns and uncertainty surrounding US cryptocurrency regulation are limiting recovery prospects. Gold: The metal is struggling to establish a sustainable rebound as expectations of tighter US monetary policy compete with political and geopolitical uncertainty.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery, trading around 1.1210–1.1240 after finding buying interest near recent lows.
- The pair advanced as the US dollar weakened ahead of the midterm election results, although the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed selling.
- The euro is attempting to regain the 1.1225 area, which previously attracted significant selling pressure.
- The broader outlook remains cautious because of France’s fiscal difficulties and uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone’s economic performance.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- US midterm elections: Uncertainty over congressional control is weighing on the dollar. A Democratic victory could increase concerns about political confrontation and government spending.
- European inflation: Preliminary October inflation figures and services activity will be important in determining whether the ECB needs another interest-rate increase.
- ECB policy: Hawkish comments from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel have strengthened expectations of a possible December rate hike.
- French finances: Fitch’s negative outlook and concerns about rising public debt continue to limit confidence in the euro.
- US employment: Strong JOLTS figures and factory orders could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive monetary conditions, potentially limiting EUR/USD gains.
Support Levels
1.1178, 1.1150, 1.1130, 1.1116, 1.1065
Resistance Levels
1.1206, 1.1225, 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1277, 1.1314
Forecast
- The short-term outlook is cautiously positive while the pair holds above 1.1178.
- A sustained move above 1.1225–1.1240 could extend the recovery toward 1.1260 and 1.1277.
- However, stronger US employment and services figures could revive dollar demand and push the euro back toward 1.1150.
- Political uncertainty and upcoming inflation data are likely to keep price movements sensitive to incoming developments.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- GBP/USD is maintaining a relatively strong position around 1.3400–1.3440, benefiting from renewed weakness in the US dollar.
- Sterling continues to outperform several major currencies, with buyers defending the 1.3400 psychological area.
- The pair has recovered from its recent decline and is approaching resistance around 1.3430–1.3448.
- Market attention is increasingly shifting toward Thursday’s Bank of England decision, which could determine whether the pound extends its recent recovery or experiences a reversal.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Bank of England: Markets are anticipating a 25-basis-point increase from 3.75% to 4.00%. The accompanying policy statement and Governor Bailey’s comments will be equally important.
- UK inflation: Persistent inflation pressures have strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy, although weaker energy prices could gradually ease cost pressures.
- UK fiscal outlook: The government’s relatively cautious borrowing approach has helped calm concerns surrounding the bond market.
- US midterm elections: Uncertainty over congressional control is weighing on the dollar and providing temporary support for sterling.
- US employment: Strong JOLTS figures have reinforced concerns that American interest rates could remain elevated, potentially limiting further GBP/USD gains.
Support Levels
1.3402, 1.3379, 1.3358, 1.3329, 1.3300, 1.3267, 1.3231, 1.3188
Resistance Levels
1.3430, 1.3448, 1.3485, 1.3500
Forecast
- The near-term outlook remains moderately bullish while GBP/USD holds above 1.3379.
- A sustained break above 1.3448 could open the way toward 1.3485 and potentially 1.3500.
- However, a disappointing BoE announcement or stronger US employment figures could encourage profit-taking and send the pair toward 1.3358.
- Sterling’s direction will largely depend on whether the BoE delivers the expected increase and signals further tightening.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Structure
- USD/JPY is trading around the 158.00–158.50 region after retreating from a recent three-week high.
- The pair has encountered renewed selling pressure as the US dollar weakens ahead of the midterm election results.
- Japanese intervention concerns are also encouraging traders to reduce bearish positions against the yen.
- Despite this recovery in the Japanese currency, the broader interest-rate difference between the United States and Japan continues to favor the dollar.
- Price movements remain sensitive to changes in US Treasury yields and Japanese government comments.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Japanese intervention: Authorities have renewed warnings against excessive yen weakness. The possibility of direct intervention is becoming increasingly important as USD/JPY approaches 159–160.
- Bank of Japan: The central bank’s cautious approach to further tightening continues to limit the yen’s recovery, although persistent inflation could eventually encourage additional increases.
- US Treasury yields: The 10-year Treasury yield has eased toward 4.92%, reducing some of the dollar’s interest-rate advantage.
- US midterm elections: Political uncertainty and the possibility of divided congressional control are creating additional pressure on the dollar.
- Energy prices: Japan’s dependence on imported energy leaves the yen vulnerable to renewed increases in oil prices, which could worsen the country’s import costs.
Support Levels
157.62, 157.28, 156.49, 155.49
Resistance Levels
158.05, 158.37, 158.59, 158.93, 159.15, 159.75
Forecast
- The short-term outlook is becoming more balanced, with selling pressure increasing below 158.50.
- A sustained decline below 158.05 could expose 157.62 and 157.28.
- Conversely, a recovery above 158.59 could bring 158.93 and 159.15 back into focus.
- Intervention warnings remain a significant risk for dollar buyers, while stronger US employment data could restore upward pressure. Overall, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Current Structure
- Bitcoin remains under considerable pressure, trading around $77,000–$78,000 after struggling to establish a convincing recovery above $80,000.
- The cryptocurrency has experienced repeated selling following October’s decline, with the latest weakness reflecting reduced institutional demand and uncertainty surrounding the Binance security incident.
- Recent attempts to stabilize near $76,300–$76,500 suggest that buyers are still defending an important price floor.
- However, the inability to reclaim $79,800–$80,000 indicates that confidence remains fragile, and the broader recovery has yet to gain sufficient strength.
- The market is also reacting to developments in technology stocks, making Bitcoin particularly sensitive to changes in overall investor appetite for risk.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- US midterm elections: Uncertainty surrounding congressional control could influence cryptocurrency regulation, particularly the future of the proposed CLARITY Act.
- ETF outflows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $399 million in net withdrawals in the latest reported session, extending the pressure on institutional demand.
- Binance security incident: The reported $6.3 billion security incident and subsequent customer withdrawals have weakened confidence across the cryptocurrency market.
- Federal Reserve policy: Stronger US employment figures have reinforced expectations of restrictive monetary policy, creating an unfavorable environment for speculative assets.
- Technology stocks: The Nasdaq’s correction and concerns about excessive AI investment are weighing on Bitcoin through their influence on broader risk sentiment.
- Strategy accumulation: Strategy continues expanding its Bitcoin holdings, reaching approximately 849,000 BTC, providing a longer-term indication of institutional commitment despite current weakness.
Support Levels
76,400, 76,141, 75,600, 75,000, 72,900, 71,100, 70,800
Resistance Levels
77,700, 78,500, 79,800, 80,000, 82,000, 84,500
Forecast
- Bitcoin’s immediate outlook remains cautious, with $76,400–$76,500 representing an important area for buyers.
- A sustained break below $75,000 could accelerate losses toward $72,900 and $70,800.
- On the upside, reclaiming $78,500 and subsequently $79,800 would improve recovery prospects.
- ETF withdrawals, election developments and Friday’s US employment report remain important influences. Until institutional demand improves, recovery attempts may continue to encounter substantial selling pressure.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Structure
- Gold is attempting to stabilize around $3,900–$3,950 after experiencing a substantial correction from its previous highs.
- The metal recovered toward $3,946 during the previous session but struggled to maintain its upward momentum as Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened.
- Recent movements indicate that gold remains highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments.
- Although lower oil prices have reduced some inflation concerns, gold has not received consistent buying support.
- The broader short-term structure remains fragile, with sellers defending the $3,940–$3,964 region while buyers continue monitoring the $3,884 support area.
Factors Affecting the Pair
- Federal Reserve policy: Markets are increasingly considering another US interest-rate increase in December. Higher borrowing costs generally reduce gold’s appeal because the metal does not generate interest.
- US Treasury yields: The movement in long-term yields remains an important influence. Any sustained decline could improve gold’s attractiveness.
- US midterm elections: Political uncertainty and possible changes in congressional control could weaken the dollar and encourage renewed demand for precious metals.
- Geopolitical developments: The possibility of renewed US-Iran military escalation remains an important source of uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold.
- Oil prices: Lower crude prices have eased inflation concerns, but renewed supply disruptions could reverse this trend and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
- Investment demand: Gold’s recovery needs stronger and more consistent buying interest, particularly after recent declines and changing expectations for monetary policy.
Support Levels
3884, 3846, 3790, 3870, 3835, 3720
Resistance Levels
3912, 3940, 3955, 3964, 3985, 4000, 4035, 4068, 4092, 4118, 4127, 4200
Forecast
- Gold’s short-term outlook remains cautious, with the $3,940–$3,964 region representing an important recovery barrier.
- Failure to regain this area could bring renewed pressure toward $3,884 and $3,846.
- Conversely, a convincing move above $3,964 could encourage further recovery toward $4,000 and $4,035.
- Election developments, Treasury yields and expectations for December’s Federal Reserve decision will remain central to gold’s direction. The metal may continue experiencing sharp price swings until a clearer balance emerges between inflation concerns and interest-rate expectations.
📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of November 4, 2026
| Instrument | Current Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | General Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Cautiously bullish | 1.1178 | 1.1225–1.1240 | Recovery dependent on US data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish | 1.3379 | 1.3448 | BoE decision remains crucial |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Neutral | 157.62 | 158.59 | Intervention risks limit gains |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Bearish | $76,400 | $79,800 | Weak demand and ETF outflows |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Cautiously bearish | $3,884 | $3,964 | Sensitive to yields and elections |
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