The US CPI report released on May 15th triggered a market reaction. Lower than expected inflation data caused the US dollar to weaken against most major currencies. The focus shifts to Japan’s GDP data on May 16th, with expectations of a rebound. The RBA’s monetary policy stance will also influence AUD/USD.
Euro (EUR):
- Recent Performance: Flat, testing resistance levels but failing to break through. The euro remained largely unchanged after mixed eurozone data on GDP and industrial production.
- Key Factors: US inflation data (released May 15th). Lower inflation could weaken USD and support EUR.
- Forecast: Slightly bullish. If US inflation falls more than expected, EUR/USD could rise towards 1.0882. Otherwise, it may trade sideways within a range.
- Support: 1.0804, 1.0778
- Resistance: 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0884
British Pound (GBP):
- Recent Performance: Upward trend, testing daily highs. The pound gained ground against the US dollar after positive UK data on unemployment claims and average earnings.
- Key Factors: US inflation data. Lower inflation could weaken USD and support GBP.
- Forecast: Bullish. If US inflation falls more than expected, GBP/USD could rise towards 1.2680. Otherwise, it may see some consolidation around current levels.
- Support: 1.2557, 1.2544
- Resistance: 1.2627, 1.2652, 1.2680
Japanese Yen (JPY):
- Recent Performance: Weakened after US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected rise. The yen appreciated against the US dollar following the weaker-than-expected US CPI data.
- Key Factors: US inflation data already released. Japan GDP data (released May 16th) could impact JPY.
- Forecast: Neutral to slightly bearish. If Japan GDP data disappoints, USD/JPY could weaken further. Otherwise, it may see some consolidation around current levels.
- Support: 155.11, 153.72
- Resistance: 156.07, 156.65 (target), 157.99
Australian Dollar (AUD):
- Recent Performance: Upward trend. The Aussie dollar extended gains after lower-than-expected wage growth data in Australia, suggesting a potential slowdown in inflation.
- Key Factors: US inflation data already released. Australian labor market report (released May 16th) could impact AUD.
- Forecast: Bullish. If US inflation falls more than expected and Australian labor market data is positive, AUD/USD could rise further. Otherwise, it may see some consolidation around current levels.
- Support: 0.6607, 0.6559
- Resistance: 0.6645, 0.6688
Gold (XAU):
- Key Factors: US inflation data. Lower inflation could reduce demand for gold as a hedge.
- Forecast: Neutral to slightly bearish. If US inflation falls more than expected, gold prices could decline.
Crude Oil:
- Key Factors: Global economic data and geopolitical tensions.
- Forecast: Uncertain. The direction of oil prices will depend on various factors, including global economic data and geopolitical tensions.
Categories: Market News
