Euro growth faces caution amid economic recovery doubts, while geopolitical tensions add volatility. The pound awaits central bank decisions amidst economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. The yen weakens as markets anticipate monetary policy shifts, with focus on upcoming central bank meetings. Gold strengthens, driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical risks, targeting higher psychological levels.
EUR/USD
Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD
- Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling potential rate cuts amid declining service sector inflation. Market expectations for an April 17 rate cut stand at 55%.
- Macroeconomic Indicators: Germany’s strong ZEW economic sentiment index has provided support to the euro, although traders remain cautious about a sustainable economic recovery.
- Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing geopolitical developments, including the Ukraine conflict, continue to impact risk sentiment and currency market dynamics.
- U.S. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. housing market data and Federal Reserve rate decisions will be key drivers of EUR/USD movement.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.0897, 1.0803, 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
- Resistance: 1.0937, 1.0979
Forecast
The short-term trend remains bullish, with the euro consolidating above 1.0897. If the price maintains momentum above 1.0937, further gains toward 1.0979 are likely. However, a break below 1.0803 would signal renewed bearish pressure.
GBP/USD
Key Factors Influencing GBP/USD
- Bank of England Policy: The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady as it balances weak economic growth with persistent inflation concerns.
- Economic Data Releases: The U.K.’s upcoming economic projections, particularly in the Chancellor’s spring statement on March 26, will influence investor sentiment.
- U.S. Dollar Strength: The USD’s performance, driven by U.S. housing and industrial production data, will impact GBP/USD trends.
- Technical Divergence: A divergence between GBP/USD and EUR/USD suggests potential for a market reversal or deeper correction.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.2963, 1.2914, 1.2866, 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
- Resistance: 1.3010
Forecast
The current bullish trend indicates GBP/USD may test liquidity above 1.3010. If the price remains above this resistance, further gains could be seen. However, a break below 1.2860 would confirm a shift to a downtrend.
USD/JPY
Key Factors Influencing USD/JPY
- Bank of Japan Policy: The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% while monitoring the impact of U.S. monetary policy shifts.
- U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: A strong U.S. economy may support the USD, putting pressure on the yen.
- Japanese Economic Indicators: Rising wages and steady inflation may prompt future rate hikes in Japan, potentially strengthening the yen over time.
- Technical Trends: The medium-term trend for USD/JPY has turned bullish, with the yen weakening more than the dollar.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 149.06, 148.48, 148.17, 147.61, 146.65, 146.00
- Resistance: 150.16, 151.29, 152.32
Forecast
USD/JPY is testing liquidity above 150.15. If the price holds above this level, further gains toward 151.29 are likely. However, a break below 147.43 would indicate a return to a bearish trend.
XAU/USD
Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices
- U.S. Dollar Strength: A weaker USD has been supporting gold prices, making the metal more attractive to investors.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Recent U.S. strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
- Bond Yields and Inflation: Lower global bond yields have contributed to rising gold prices, with investors seeking alternatives to fixed-income assets.
- Institutional Buying: ETF fund positions in gold have reached a 17-month high, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 3000, 2976, 2954, 2930, 2906, 2896, 2859, 2833
- Resistance: 3050, 3100
Forecast
The current trend remains bullish, with gold trading near historical highs. A breakout above 3050 could drive prices toward 3100. However, a decline below 2906 would suggest a potential bearish reversal.
Conclusion
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain bullish, but require further confirmation above key resistance levels.
- USD/JPY shows continued upward momentum, but potential shifts in BoJ policy could impact direction.
- Gold remains in an uptrend, with key levels to watch for potential breakouts or corrections.
