Dollar (USD) strengthened against most major currencies yesterday. Markets cautious due to lack of data in the afternoon US session. Key events to watch this week include BoE meeting (GBP) and New Zealand GDP data (NZD). The SNB meeting on June 20th is a key event that could impact CHF and potentially other currencies. The direction of gold and Bitcoin prices depends on various factors, including future Fed rate cuts and overall market sentiment. US dollar may weaken due to dovish Fed stance, benefiting other currencies.

Euro (EUR/USD):

  • Upside potential: Limited data today, possible rise if weak US data emerges.
  • Focus on resistance at 1.0760 and support at 1.0713.
  • Entry points: Buy around 1.0747 with a target of 1.0780, or buy on two consecutive tests of 1.0727 (target 1.0747).
  • Downside potential: Strong US data or failed breakout at resistance levels.
  • Sell points: Sell after reaching 1.0727 with a target of 1.0687, or sell on two consecutive tests of 1.0747 in overbought area (target 1.0687).
  • Overall: EUR/USD likely remains in a channel, hawkish Fed and dovish ECB may put downward pressure on Euro in the long run.

British Pound (GBP/USD):

  • Upside potential: Potential rise after weak US data or a breakout of resistance levels.
  • Resistance at 1.2750, support at 1.2687.
  • Entry points: Buy around 1.2739 with a target of 1.2765, or buy on two consecutive tests of 1.2719 in oversold area (target 1.2739).
  • Downside potential: Sellers regain control, unsuccessful breakout at resistance.
  • Sell points: Sell below 1.2719 with a target of 1.2687, or sell on two consecutive tests of 1.2739 in overbought area (target 1.2687).
  • Overall: GBP may rise in the short term but BoE’s dovish stance may weaken it compared to the Fed’s hawkishness.


Japanese Yen (USD/JPY):

  • Upside potential: Continuation of uptrend with strong US data.
  • Resistance at 158.39, support at 157.49.
  • Entry points: Buy around 158.07 with a target of 158.39, or buy on two consecutive tests of 157.82  in oversold area (target 158.07).
  • Downside potential: Lack of buying activity, soft comments from Fed.
  • Sell points: Sell after reaching 157.82 with a target of 157.49, or sell on two consecutive tests of 158.07  overbought area (target 1.57.49).
  • Overall: USD remains strong, potential correction if bullish momentum weakens.


Australian Dollar (AUD/USD):

  • Upside potential: Divergent monetary policy (hawkish RBA, dovish Fed), strong risk appetite, recovering China.
  • Resistance at 0.6690, support at 0.6645.
  • Possible buying: Above 0.6645.
  • Downside potential: US elections and potential protectionist policies under Trump.
  • Overall: AUD/USD has tailwinds but US presidential election is a major risk factor.


New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD):

  • Focus: New Zealand’s first-quarter GDP data on Thursday, market uncertainty about a recession.
  • Current status: Steady, awaiting GDP data.


Swiss Franc (CHF/USD):

  • Strength: Gained strength due to safe-haven status recently, driven by political uncertainty in France ahead of elections.
  • Potential Weakness: A dovish stance from the SNB (Swiss National Bank) on interest rates on June 20th could weaken the CHF.
  • Technical Analysis (EUR/CHF): Short-term downtrend likely to continue unless resistance at 0.9610 is broken. Overall long-term trend is still bearish.
  • USD/CHF: Flat ahead of SNB meeting.
  • Support at 0.8809, 0.9445, 0.9390. resistance at 0.8860, 0.9610.


Gold (XAU/USD):

  • Trading Range: Stuck in a trading range for the past week and a half due to uncertainty about the timing of Fed rate cuts.
  • Potential Upside: A dovish Fed stance or weaker US economic data could push gold prices up. Resistance levels at $2,339 and $2,370.
  • Potential Downside: More hawkish Fed stance or stronger US data could weaken gold. Support levels at $2,307, $2,300, and $2,276.
  • Technical Analysis: Bearish. Potential breakout soon, but direction unclear.


Bitcoin (BTC/USD):

  • Volatility: Experienced some volatility recently but bounced back after reaching a low.
  • Potential Upside: A break above $65,600 could signal further bullish momentum. Targets at $66,700 and $67,500.
  • Potential Downside: A fall below $64,000 could lead to a continuation of the bearish trend. Targets at $63,250 and $62,500.
  • Technical Analysis: Short-term unclear, potentially bullish in the very short-term but bearish in the medium-term.
  • Resistance: $65,600 (BTC/USD), $67,500 (BTC/USD). Support: $63,968 (BTC/USD), $63,250 (BTC/USD), $62,500 (BTC/USD)

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