The euro remains under pressure following disappointing services data and speculation over ECB rate cuts, while the pound’s resilience is tempered by economic challenges and BOE policy ambiguity. The yen faces uncertainty as Japan signals potential rate hikes, contrasting with the Fed’s mixed signals affecting the dollar. Australia’s weak GDP has dragged the AUD to multi-month lows, compounded by domestic and global economic concerns. Gold trades steadily, balancing strong US job data with geopolitical uncertainties, as markets monitor its movement within key technical ranges.
EUR/USD
Market Analysis:
The euro remains under pressure due to weak economic data, including contractionary PMIs for both the services and manufacturing sectors. Political instability in France and expectations of rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) have further weakened sentiment. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut during the upcoming December 12 meeting, with potential rate cuts continuing into 2025.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: 1.0515, 1.0539, 1.0568, 1.0609
- Support Levels: 1.0480, 1.0449, 1.0425
Forecast:
- The short-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish, with the possibility of retesting support at 1.0425.
- A break above 1.0609 could reverse the trend to bullish, targeting 1.0654.
- Volatility is likely to increase following US labor data and ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming testimony.
GBP/USD
Market Analysis:
The British pound has shown resilience amid mixed UK economic data and speculation about the Bank of England’s (BoE) future rate cuts. Rising trade barriers and inflation concerns are key risks, while the BoE’s upcoming meeting on December 5 could provide more clarity.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: 1.2691, 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878
- Support Levels: 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2526
Forecast:
- The GBP/USD trend is bullish, with buyers likely targeting 1.2731.
- However, a break below 1.2526 could shift momentum to the downside, targeting 1.2487.
- Intraday traders should monitor Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech for potential catalysts.
USD/JPY
Market Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is being driven by divergent monetary policy expectations between the US and Japan. While the Bank of Japan signals potential rate hikes, the Federal Reserve’s policy remains uncertain, with markets awaiting US labor market data and inflation reports.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: 150.24, 150.76, 151.96, 153.23
- Support Levels: 149.23, 148.67, 147.34
Forecast:
- The medium-term trend is bearish, with corrections likely.
- A move above 151.14 would signal bullish continuation, targeting 152.06.
- Conversely, a drop below 149.23 could lead to further declines toward 147.34.
AUD/USD
Market Analysis:
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply due to disappointing GDP data and expectations of prolonged high-interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Concerns about Chinese economic recovery and global trade risks are also weighing on the Aussie.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: 0.6447, 0.6500, 0.6563
- Support Levels: 0.6400, 0.6351, 0.6345
Forecast:
- The short-term trend is bearish, with further downside likely toward 0.6350.
- A recovery above 0.6500 would require strong bullish momentum, potentially targeting 0.6563.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Market Analysis:
Gold remains stable amid geopolitical tensions and mixed economic signals. The metal has found support from robust labor market data and political uncertainty in France and South Korea. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching US inflation and employment reports for directional cues.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: $2,652, $2,695, $2,700
- Support Levels: $2,638, $2,620, $2,578
Forecast:
- A break above $2,652 would signal a bullish breakout, targeting $2,695.
- Conversely, a move below $2,638 could accelerate losses toward $2,620 and $2,578.
- Gold’s long-term bullish outlook depends on geopolitical risks and further dollar weakness.
Summary:
- EUR/USD and AUD/USD: Bearish trends dominate.
- GBP/USD: Bullish but vulnerable to US economic data.
- USD/JPY: Mixed signals with a bearish medium-term outlook.
- Gold: Range-bound but favors technical correction toward lower levels.
Key data releases and geopolitical developments remain critical for shaping near-term movements across these assets. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts in sentiment driven by economic reports and central bank decisions.
