The most important point for today’s session is not to force trades before the US inflation data. The market is positioned between two competing narratives: weak employment suggests less pressure for tighter Fed policy, while persistent inflation or energy-related price pressure could revive the opposite view. That is why buying EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Bitcoin or Gold immediately before CPI carries considerably more event risk than waiting for the initial reaction and then trading the confirmed direction. The main theme is still the US dollar versus changing Federal Reserve expectations: the recent weak US labor-market report has reduced the case for aggressive tightening, but today’s CPI and tomorrow’s PPI could quickly change that view.

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Current situation

• EUR/USD remains relatively resilient around the 1.15 area, despite recent dollar strength.
• The pair’s previous close near 1.1543 shows that the euro has pulled back slightly but has not suffered a decisive breakdown.
• Eurozone growth expectations have improved, with Q2 GDP expected to confirm continued expansion.
• The European economy therefore has a somewhat better fundamental backdrop than earlier in the year.
• However, the euro remains heavily dependent on what happens to the US dollar.
• The biggest immediate risk is today’s US CPI. A stronger inflation reading could push US yields and the dollar higher, putting EUR/USD under pressure.
• A softer CPI would likely give the euro room to recover toward the upper end of its recent range.
• The current environment still favors buying controlled pullbacks rather than chasing the pair higher.

Factors affecting EUR/USD

• 🇺🇸 US CPI: The most important immediate driver.
• 🇺🇸 Fed policy expectations: A renewed expectation of tighter policy favors the dollar.
• 🇪🇺 Eurozone growth: Improving growth expectations provide underlying support for the euro.
• 🇮🇷 Middle East/Hormuz developments: Changes in energy prices can affect both European growth and inflation expectations.
• 💵 Dollar sentiment: Still the dominant short-term factor for EUR/USD.

Key levels

Support

• 1.1533 — first important support
• 1.1502 — major near-term support
• 1.1468 — deeper support
• 1.1437
• 1.1400
• 1.1379

Resistance

• 1.1581 — first upside target
• 1.1617 — stronger resistance

Forecast

Base case: Moderately bullish / range-bound

The euro can continue higher if it holds above 1.1533. A sustained move through 1.1581 would strengthen the case for 1.1617.

However, a break below 1.1502 would change the short-term picture and expose 1.1468.

Trading recommendation

• Preferred trade: Consider buying around 1.1533 if the level holds and buyers return.
• Secondary buy zone: 1.1502, provided the decline appears controlled rather than aggressive.
• Upside targets: 1.1581, followed by 1.1617.
• Short setup: Consider selling only after a convincing break below 1.1502, targeting 1.1468 and potentially 1.1437.
• Avoid: Chasing EUR/USD directly into 1.1581 before the CPI reaction.

Bias: 🟢 Mildly bullish above 1.1533

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Current situation

• GBP/USD is currently showing more resilience than EUR/USD.
• The pair has remained around the 1.35 area, close to its highest levels since mid-July.
• The previous close near 1.3507 confirms that the pound has maintained its recent recovery.
• UK labor-market conditions have shown some localized improvement, with permanent hiring stabilizing and temporary-work demand improving.
• The pound is also benefiting from reduced expectations of immediate additional Fed tightening.
• However, the pound remains vulnerable to a stronger dollar if US inflation surprises to the upside.
• Compared with the euro, GBP/USD currently has a cleaner bullish structure because buyers have managed to maintain the pair around 1.35.

Factors affecting GBP/USD

• 🇺🇸 US CPI and PPI: The biggest short-term external drivers.
• 🇬🇧 UK employment: Stabilizing employment conditions are supportive.
• 🇬🇧 UK inflation and wages: Important for future Bank of England policy.
• 🏦 BoE expectations: A relatively firm UK rate outlook can support sterling.
• 🌍 Risk sentiment: The pound tends to perform better when investors are comfortable taking risk.
• 🛢️ Oil prices: A sustained energy shock could create inflation and growth concerns for the UK.

Key levels

Support

• 1.3504
• 1.3482
• 1.3420
• 1.3400
• 1.3371
• 1.3339
• 1.3318
• 1.3303

Resistance

• 1.3550

Forecast

Base case: Bullish

GBP/USD has a good chance of testing 1.3550 as long as it remains above 1.3482–1.3504.

A clean break through 1.3550 could encourage another move higher, particularly if US CPI comes in softer than expected.

Conversely, a sustained move below 1.3482 would suggest that buyers are losing control and could open the way toward 1.3420.

Trading recommendation

• Preferred trade: Buy around 1.3504 after confirmation that buyers are defending the level.
• Alternative entry: 1.3482 if the pair experiences a controlled pullback.
• Target: 1.3550.
• Breakout trade: A sustained move above 1.3550 could justify holding for a further upside extension.
• Short setup: Consider selling only after a decisive failure around 1.3550 or a clear break below 1.3482.
• Downside targets: 1.3420, followed by 1.3400.

Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 1.3482

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Current situation

• USD/JPY is currently the most sensitive of the three major currency pairs to intervention risk.
• The pair surged from roughly 157.64 to 159.28, demonstrating how quickly dollar demand can return.
• The yen remains fundamentally pressured by the large interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States.
• Japan’s fiscal concerns, high energy costs and import dependence also remain negative for the yen.
• However, the closer USD/JPY moves toward 160, the greater the risk of another official response.
• This creates an unusual situation where the fundamental trend remains bullish for USD/JPY, but the risk of a sudden reversal becomes increasingly important.
• Recent intervention has already shown that traders should not assume that a move above 159 will automatically lead to a smooth move higher.

Factors affecting USD/JPY

• 🇺🇸 US CPI: Strong inflation could push USD/JPY higher.
• 🇺🇸 US Treasury yields: Higher yields increase dollar attractiveness.
• 🇯🇵 BoJ policy: Any indication of greater willingness to tighten would support the yen.
• 🇯🇵 Japanese intervention: The most important risk near 160.
• 🛢️ Energy prices: Higher energy costs worsen Japan’s import bill.
• 🌍 Risk sentiment: A sudden global risk-off move can trigger yen buying.

Key levels

Support

• 158.41
• 157.98
• 155.50
• 154.86
• 154.00

Resistance

• 159.42
• 160.79
• 161.66
• 162.71
• 162.96

Forecast

Base case: Bullish, but extremely volatile

A sustained break above 159.42 would favor another attempt at 160.79.

However, unlike EUR/USD and GBP/USD, USD/JPY should not be treated as a straightforward breakout trade. The closer the pair gets to 160, the more dangerous it becomes to chase the move because intervention headlines can produce very fast reversals.

A break below 158.41 would weaken the bullish structure and expose 157.98.

Trading recommendation

• Preferred trade: Buy only after USD/JPY establishes itself above 159.42.
• Initial target: 160.79.
• Extended targets: 161.66, then 162.71 if momentum remains strong.
• More conservative strategy: Buy dips around 158.41–157.98 only if buyers clearly defend those areas.
• Short setup: Consider short positions after a strong rejection around 159.42–160.00, particularly if intervention concerns intensify.
• Downside targets: 158.41, then 157.98.
• Important: Reduce position size near 160 because intervention risk can overwhelm normal technical behavior.

Bias: 🟢 Bullish, but high-risk near 160

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₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin

Current situation

• Bitcoin’s recovery remains considerably less convincing than the headline ETF numbers might suggest.
• Recent spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $853.5 million in weekly inflows, their strongest week since April.
• However, more than 80% of that weekly inflow reportedly went into BlackRock’s IBIT, meaning institutional demand was heavily concentrated rather than broadly distributed.
• At the same time, ETF trading volume declined, suggesting that the recovery is not yet supported by overwhelming secondary-market participation.
• This creates a constructive but fragile environment.
• Strategy’s continued Bitcoin selling remains another source of supply pressure.
• The company reportedly sold another 1,690 BTC, making it the second consecutive week of sales.
• This does not automatically mean Bitcoin must fall, but continued selling by a major holder makes it harder for the market to build a strong sustained rally.
• Bitcoin therefore needs to reclaim the $65,000–$66,000 region to demonstrate that buyers are gaining control.

Factors affecting Bitcoin

• 🏦 Spot Bitcoin ETF flows: Improving flows are supportive.
• 🐋 Large-holder selling: Continued Strategy selling creates additional supply.
• 🇺🇸 Fed expectations: A softer Fed outlook generally helps risk assets.
• 📊 US CPI: A hotter reading could pressure Bitcoin through a stronger dollar and higher yields.
• 🤖 AI investment: Capital competition from AI-related assets remains relevant.
• 🌍 Risk appetite: Bitcoin tends to perform better when investors are willing to take risk.

Key levels

Support

• $64,100
• $63,500
• $63,400
• $62,300
• $60,600

Resistance

• $64,700
• $65,000
• $66,000
• $66,800

Forecast

Base case: Neutral to cautiously bullish above $63,400

Bitcoin needs to regain $65,000 before the broader recovery becomes more convincing.

A sustained move above $66,000 would improve the outlook substantially and open the way toward $66,800.

On the other hand, failure to hold $63,400 would be a warning that the recent recovery is losing momentum. A move below $62,300 would expose the market to a deeper correction toward $60,600.

Trading recommendation

• Aggressive buy: Around $64,100 if buyers defend the level.
• Safer bullish confirmation: Wait for a sustained move above $65,000.
• Upside targets: $65,000 → $66,000 → $66,800.
• Breakdown short: Consider selling if $63,400 fails decisively.
• Downside targets: $62,300, followed by $60,600.
• Avoid: Chasing Bitcoin aggressively between $64,700 and $65,000 without confirmation.
• Risk management: Because ETF flows and large-holder activity are sending mixed signals, smaller positions are preferable until BTC establishes itself above $66,000.

Bias: 🟡 Neutral-to-bullish above $63,400

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🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Current situation

• Gold remains one of the strongest assets in the group.
• The previous close around $4,389 shows that gold is still trading near historically elevated levels.
• The market is increasingly focused on whether the recent weak US employment data will cause the Fed to become less aggressive.
• That is positive for gold because lower expectations for future tightening can reduce pressure from the dollar and bond yields.
• However, gold has already made a substantial recovery and is now approaching $4,429–$4,467, where profit-taking becomes increasingly likely.
• Higher oil prices remain a complication because they can revive inflation expectations and potentially make the Fed more cautious about easing policy.
• Geopolitical developments around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply also remain capable of producing sudden gold movements.
• The immediate fundamental battle is therefore between weaker US labor conditions, which support gold, and renewed inflation pressure, which can support the dollar and restrict gold’s upside. Recent market analysis also highlights CPI and PPI as the next major catalysts.

Factors affecting Gold

• 🇺🇸 US CPI: Lower inflation would generally support gold.
• 🇺🇸 Fed policy expectations: Less aggressive policy is favorable.
• 💵 US dollar: Dollar strength can pressure gold.
• 🛢️ Oil prices: Higher oil can increase inflation concerns.
• 🌍 Middle East tensions: Escalation can increase demand for defensive assets.
• 📈 Treasury yields: Higher yields can make non-interest-bearing gold less attractive.
• 🏦 Central-bank demand: Remains an important longer-term support.

Key levels

Support

• $4,373
• $4,318
• $4,301
• $4,238
• $4,166
• $4,111
• $4,077
• $4,043
• $4,025
• $4,000

Resistance

• $4,429
• $4,467

Forecast

Base case: Bullish, but vulnerable to correction

Gold’s broader structure remains constructive, but the market is approaching an important resistance area.

A sustained move above $4,429 would strengthen the bullish outlook and put $4,467 in focus.

A rejection around $4,429–$4,467, however, could trigger profit-taking toward $4,318.

The most attractive risk-reward area for fresh long positions is therefore lower down rather than immediately chasing gold at resistance.

Trading recommendation

• Preferred buy: Consider $4,318–$4,301 if buyers defend the area.
• Secondary support: $4,238.
• Upside target: $4,429, followed by $4,467.
• Breakout buy: A sustained move above $4,429 could justify a continuation trade toward $4,467.
• Short-term short: Consider selling after a clear rejection from $4,429–$4,467, targeting $4,318.
• Bearish confirmation: A sustained break below $4,301 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $4,238.
• Avoid: Buying aggressively directly underneath $4,429 resistance.

Bias: 🟢 Bullish above $4,301, but correction risk is elevated

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📊 Cross-Market Trading Strategy

Best bullish setups

1. GBP/USD above 1.3504
   • Currently one of the cleaner currency setups.
   • Target: 1.3550
   • Stronger bullish confirmation above 1.3550.
2. EUR/USD above 1.1533
   • Good candidate for a controlled pullback strategy.
   • Target: 1.1581–1.1617.
   • Requires caution around today’s US inflation release.
3. Gold around $4,318–$4,301
   • Attractive area if buyers return.
   • Target: $4,429–$4,467.

More dangerous bullish setup

4. USD/JPY above 159.42
   • Upside toward 160.79 remains possible.
   • But intervention risk makes this considerably more dangerous than the other currency trades.

Conditional crypto setup

5. Bitcoin above $65,000
   • A sustained move above this level would improve the short-term outlook.
   • $66,000 becomes the next important objective.
   • Below $63,400, the bullish thesis becomes considerably weaker.

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⚠️ What to Watch Most Closely

• US CPI today: Potentially the biggest market-moving event for all five assets.
• US PPI tomorrow: Could confirm or challenge the CPI message.
• Fed expectations: The dollar, gold and Bitcoin are particularly sensitive to changes in rate expectations.
• US Treasury yields: A major transmission channel between inflation data and currencies/gold.
• Oil/Hormuz: Another inflation shock could strengthen the dollar while simultaneously creating volatility in gold and risk assets.
• USD/JPY near 160: Intervention remains the major risk to the yen trade.
• Bitcoin ETF flows: Continued positive flows would strengthen the recovery argument, but concentration and weak trading volume remain concerns.
• Strategy’s Bitcoin sales: Continued selling is an important supply-side headwind.

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📊 Summary Table: Forex Analysis As of August 12, 2026

Asset	Current Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Main Driver	Trading Preference
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	🟢 Mild bullish	1.1533 / 1.1502	1.1581 / 1.1617	US CPI & dollar	Buy controlled dips above 1.1533
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	🟢 Bullish	1.3504 / 1.3482	1.3550	US CPI + UK outlook	Buy 1.3504/1.3482 with confirmation
🇯🇵 USD/JPY	🟢 Bullish, high risk	158.41 / 157.98	159.42 / 160.79	US yields + intervention	Buy above 159.42 cautiously
₿ BTC/USD	🟡 Neutral-bullish	$63,400 / $62,300	$65,000 / $66,000	ETF flows + Fed expectations	Buy above $65k or defended $64.1k
🪙 XAU/USD	🟢 Bullish, correction risk	$4,318 / $4,301	$4,429 / $4,467	CPI + Fed + geopolitics	Buy pullbacks; avoid chasing resistance