The upcoming week promises to be eventful for global markets, with a strong focus on the United States. A series of significant economic data releases, including the pivotal Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, are set to shape investor sentiment. Additionally, trade developments will take center stage, particularly on April 2, when new tariffs are expected to be implemented.
Beyond the U.S., major economic updates from China, Australia, Europe, and Canada will provide further market-moving insights. This week’s highlights include key inflation readings, central bank decisions, and employment reports that could impact global financial markets.
Below is a structured breakdown of the most critical events to watch:
Monday, 31 March 2025
- China:
- Release of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data, providing insight into the country’s economic health.
- Germany:
- Individual German states report their Consumer Price Index (CPI) updates, offering an early look at inflation trends.
- United States:
- A relatively quiet session in New York, with no major data releases scheduled.
Tuesday, 1 April 2025
- Australia:
- Retail Sales data release, indicating consumer spending trends.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision and Press Conference, with investors watching for potential monetary policy shifts.
- Europe:
- Eurozone CPI inflation figures, crucial for European Central Bank (ECB) policy decisions.
- United States:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI report, gauging industrial sector health.
- JOLTS Job Openings data, with potential market impact as labor demand trends are analyzed.
Wednesday, 2 April 2025 (“Liberation Day”)
- United States:
- Key focus: Announcement on tariffs from President Trump, potentially sparking volatility.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment data, serving as a precursor to Friday’s NFP release.
- Markets anticipate heightened uncertainty as the administration’s trade policies come into effect.
Thursday, 3 April 2025
- Switzerland:
- CPI data release, impacting Swiss franc valuation.
- United States:
- Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI, and Final Services PMI data, offering a broader view of labor market trends and economic activity.
- Trade Policy Updates:
- Expected counter-tariff announcements from affected countries in response to new U.S. trade measures.
Friday, 4 April 2025 (Non-Farm Payroll Day)
- United Kingdom:
- Construction PMI report, providing insight into the construction sector.
- United States:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report – The most anticipated economic release of the week.
- Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data, essential indicators for Federal Reserve policy considerations.
- Canada:
- Employment data release, with potential market impact, though overshadowed by the U.S. figures.
Market Themes and Analysis
Recent Market Performance
- U.S. equities showed volatility last week amid concerns over economic exceptionalism.
- Spot Gold (XAU/USD) surged past $3,000, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar declined slightly, suggesting cautious sentiment.
Macroeconomic Insights
- U.S. Economy:
- GDP growth for Q4 2024 came in at an annualized rate of 2.4%, but concerns remain for Q1 2025.
- February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed persistent inflation, with core PCE rising to 2.8% year-on-year.
- Eurozone & UK:
- Eurozone CPI expected at 2.3% year-on-year, with core inflation possibly softening.
- UK inflation decelerated in February, raising expectations for a potential Bank of England rate cut.
- Australia:
- The RBA is expected to keep rates at 4.10%, with markets eyeing a potential cut in July.
Market Reactions & Technical Outlook
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Resistance seen at 104.92; potential downside movement towards 101.92.
- AUD/NZD Cross: Bearish trend developing; traders watching key support levels at N$1.0978.
- EUR/GBP Cross:
- Eurozone CPI data could influence EUR direction, with resistance observed at £0.8398.
Conclusion
This week’s trading activity will be heavily influenced by U.S. economic data and President Trump’s tariff policies. Investors should brace for volatility, particularly around the April 2 tariff announcements and Friday’s NFP release. Meanwhile, key inflation figures, central bank decisions, and employment reports from Europe, Australia, and Canada will provide additional market-moving catalysts.
With multiple macro themes converging, traders should remain vigilant, ensuring risk management strategies are in place to navigate potential market fluctuations
