The upcoming week is set to bring a steadier flow of macroeconomic events after a hectic previous week. Although the volume of market-moving data releases has somewhat subsided, key inflation data across multiple economies remain at the forefront of investor and central bank considerations.
Additionally, geopolitical developments continue to shape market sentiment, particularly with ongoing concerns regarding U.S. tariffs and international conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Traders and investors will keep a close watch on these events as they could influence global markets.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the key economic data releases and market-moving events for the week ahead:
Monday, March 24, 2025: Global PMI Data and Central Bank Speeches
- Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports will be released across several economies, including:
- Australia
- France
- Germany
- United Kingdom (UK)
- European Union (EU)
- United States (US)
- Central Bank Activity:
- Remarks from the Federal Reserve’s Raphael Bostic
- Speech by the Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey
Tuesday, March 25, 2025: Key Business Sentiment and Consumer Data
- German Ifo Business Climate Index: A key measure of business confidence in Germany, impacting euro sentiment.
- US Economic Reports:
- CB Consumer Confidence Index
- New Home Sales data
- Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, March 26, 2025: Inflation Data and UK Budget Release
- Inflation Data Releases:
- Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- UK’s CPI, a closely watched indicator given inflationary pressures and central bank policies
- UK Fiscal Policy:
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the UK’s Spring Budget Statement, potentially influencing fiscal policy outlook.
- US Data Releases:
- Durable Goods Orders, providing insights into business investment trends
- Speeches from Fed members Neel Kashkari and Adriana Kugler
Thursday, March 27, 2025: US GDP and Unemployment Data
- US Economic Reports:
- Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q4 2024
- Weekly Unemployment Claims data
- Pending Home Sales report
Friday, March 28, 2025: Critical Inflation and Growth Data
- Inflation Data Releases:
- Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI, a leading inflation indicator for the Bank of Japan
- UK Retail Sales Report, which could impact British pound movement
- US Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, likely influencing rate expectations
- Additional Economic Reports:
- Canada’s GDP figures
- US Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Market Themes and Key Considerations
1. US Tariff Policy and Market Impact
With the highly anticipated April 2 announcement by President Donald Trump regarding broad reciprocal tariffs, markets will be on edge. This policy shift has the potential to trigger significant volatility across global trade-sensitive sectors.
2. Inflation Trends and Central Bank Responses
- The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan recently maintained their policy rates.
- Market participants will analyze US PCE inflation data for clues on the Fed’s future rate path.
- Australia’s and the UK’s inflation prints could also influence expectations for rate adjustments.
3. Equity and Currency Market Reactions
- Lower-than-expected inflation prints could pressure local currencies (e.g., AUD and GBP) due to increasing rate-cut expectations.
- Conversely, higher inflation readings may reinforce hawkish central bank stances, supporting local currencies.
- The S&P Global PMIs will offer insight into business sentiment and economic health, potentially impacting equity markets.
Conclusion
This week brings a slightly calmer schedule compared to the prior week, but with critical inflation data and geopolitical developments, traders should remain vigilant. The economic landscape remains uncertain, and central bank signals will be scrutinized closely as investors position themselves for the months ahead.
