As financial markets continue to navigate through an environment of heightened uncertainty, traders brace themselves for another potentially volatile week. Despite a lighter macroeconomic event calendar compared to the previous week, key economic indicators and central bank decisions will play a crucial role in shaping market movements. Investors will closely watch the release of US inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, while geopolitical developments remain a significant factor in driving risk sentiment.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the key economic events scheduled for the upcoming week:
Monday, 10 March 2025
- The trading week is expected to begin on a relatively quiet note, with minimal significant economic releases across the three major trading sessions (Asia, Europe, and North America).
- Market participants will be assessing the impact of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which was released over the weekend and came in lower than expected.
- Traders may be on alert for potential market gaps at the Asia open, particularly in response to the weekend’s Chinese inflation figures.
Tuesday, 11 March 2025
- Another subdued day in terms of macroeconomic events during the Asian and European sessions.
- The US session, however, will see the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report, which is an important indicator of labor market strength.
- This data, typically published in the first week of the month, has been rescheduled, potentially amplifying its impact on market sentiment and US dollar movements.
Wednesday, 12 March 2025
- Asian Session: No major economic releases scheduled.
- European Session: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is set to deliver a speech, which could provide insights into the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
- US Session:
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data: The most critical data release of the week, CPI figures will be closely analyzed to gauge inflation trends and their potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.
- Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision: The BoC will announce its latest interest rate decision, accompanied by a rate statement and a press conference. Investors will scrutinize the central bank’s forward guidance on monetary policy amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
- Market volatility is expected to spike as traders digest both CPI data and the BoC’s policy stance.
Thursday, 13 March 2025
- Asian & European Sessions: Likely to remain relatively quiet, with no major data releases anticipated.
- US Session:
- Producer Price Index (PPI) Data: A secondary inflation gauge that typically has a lower market impact than CPI but still holds significance in assessing inflation trends.
- Weekly Unemployment Claims Report: Provides insight into the US labor market, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policy expectations.
- Although PPI data tends to have a more muted effect on markets compared to CPI, traders will analyze it for additional confirmation of inflationary trends.
Friday, 14 March 2025
- Asian Session: Expected to be uneventful in terms of major macroeconomic releases.
- European Session: The focus will shift to the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report, a key indicator of economic growth that could influence Bank of England policy expectations and GBP movements.
- US Session:
- Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: A widely watched measure of consumer confidence that could impact market sentiment.
- US Inflation Expectations Report: Offers insights into consumer expectations for future inflation, which can affect Federal Reserve policy projections.
- As the week draws to a close, markets may experience reduced volatility heading into the weekend, barring any unexpected geopolitical developments or central bank commentary.
Final Thoughts
While the macroeconomic calendar is relatively lighter than the previous week, key data points such as US CPI and PPI, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and UK GDP data are expected to influence market movements. Additionally, traders will continue to monitor geopolitical factors, which could overshadow scheduled economic events. Volatility is expected to remain high, particularly mid-week when major data releases occur.
Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential market shifts as the week unfolds.
