The market is cautious and waiting for key data releases this week, particularly Japan’s inflation data and potential news from the ECB and BoE. The news background this week could be crucial for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with inflation data potentially impacting central bank policies and market sentiment.
USD/JPY:
- Focus: Japan’s core inflation data release tomorrow, expected to be soft at 3.2% y/y.
- Key point: Recent strength in USD/JPY might be limited due to potential intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) if the pair approaches 151.
- Technical analysis: Watch the key short-term resistance at 150.70 and near-term support at 149.60.
EUR/USD:
- Trend: Downward, with wave 3 or c of a larger bearish structure potentially forming.
- Target: Below 1.0462, corresponding to 127.2% according to Fibonacci.
- News: This week’s news background might favor selling the euro, with potential dovish rhetoric from ECB officials and reports suggesting a slowdown in European inflation.
GBP/USD:
- Trend: Unclear, currently stuck in a sideways movement.
- Technical analysis: Technicals suggest a decline, but the market might be holding its ground.
- Target: Below 1.2039, corresponding to the low of wave 1 or a. However, the sideways movement at 1.2500 might be a new support level.
Gold:
- Overall: Opinions are divided, with some analysts expecting an increase and others predicting a decline.
- Technical Analysis: Indicators suggest a possible short-term correction, but the overall trend remains bullish.
- Key Events: PCE report, new home sales, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and preliminary GDP report. These could add volatility to the market.
Bitcoin :
- Market Consolidation: Bitcoin is hovering around $50,000, potentially benefiting altcoins like Ethereum.
- Historical Cycles: The current market cycle might resemble past trends, with altcoins surging after Bitcoin’s initial rally.
- Investor Sentiment: Cautious optimism prevails, with anticipation for an upcoming bull run but also awareness of potential risks.
Ethereum:
- Price Action: Ethereum is holding above $3,000 despite recent bearish candlestick patterns.
- Legal Drama: The ongoing legal battle surrounding Craig Wright and his claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto is creating uncertainty.
- Technical Analysis: Indicators are mostly bullish, but some caution is warranted due to conflicting candlestick signals.
Other Markets
- AUD/USD: Likely to see upward movement followed by a decline towards the support area.
- USD/CHF: Potential correction of the uptrend after reaching the resistance zone.
- USD Index: Sideways movement expected, followed by a potential resumption of the uptrend.
Categories: Market News
