Here are the Top Market Analysis for the 13th of October, 2023.

Currencies (Forex – FX)

• USD: The US dollar is trading mixed on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path. However, the dollar is also being weighed down by risk appetite, as investors are encouraged by the recent decline in oil prices and the prospect of a Chinese economic stimulus package. Overall, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but it could rebound if the Fed signals that it is more willing to raise interest rates more aggressively.
• EUR: The euro is trading lower against the US dollar on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path. The euro is also being weighed down by concerns about the European economy, as the region faces a number of challenges, including rising energy prices and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Overall, the euro is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but it could rebound if the ECB signals that it is more willing to raise interest rates.
• GBP: The British pound is trading lower against the US dollar on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path. The pound is also being weighed down by concerns about the UK economy, as the country faces a number of challenges, including rising inflation, high energy prices, and a potential recession. Overall, the pound is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but it could rebound if the BoE signals that it is more willing to raise interest rates.
• JPY: The Japanese yen is trading lower against the US dollar on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path. The yen is also being weighed down by the Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish monetary policy stance. The BoJ has kept interest rates at near-zero levels, even as inflation has risen sharply. This has led to a widening interest rate differential between Japan and other countries, which has made the yen less attractive to investors. Overall, the yen is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, as the BoJ is expected to maintain its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance.

Metals

• Gold: is trading lower on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path.
• Silver: is also trading lower on Friday, tracking gold. Silver is also facing additional pressure from the rising US dollar, which makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase.
• Platinum & palladium: are both trading higher on Friday, as investors are betting on increased demand for these metals from the automotive industry.
• Copper: is trading higher on Friday, as investors are optimistic about the outlook for global economic growth. Copper is also benefiting from the rising US dollar, which makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase.
• Aluminum: is also trading higher on Friday, as investors are betting on increased demand for this metal from the construction and transportation industries.
• Iron ore: is trading lower on Friday, as concerns about the Chinese economy continue to weigh on the market. China is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore.

Commodities

• Oil: prices are trading higher on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path.
• Natural gas: prices are trading lower on Friday, as investors are encouraged by the recent decline in oil prices and the prospect of a milder winter.
• Soybean: prices are trading higher on Friday, as concerns about the drought in the US Midwest continue to weigh on the market.
• Wheat: prices are trading lower on Friday, as investors are encouraged by the recent decline in oil prices and the prospect of a global economic slowdown.
• Corn: prices are trading lower on Friday, tracking wheat.
• Gold, Silver, Copper: Please check Metals category

Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: is trading lower on Friday, after the release of mixed US CPI data. The headline CPI fell to 8.2% in September, from 8.3% in August, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This suggests that inflation is still broad-based and sticky, which could keep the Fed on a hawkish path.
• S&P 500: is also trading lower on Friday, tracking the Dow. The S&P 500 is also facing additional pressure from the rising US dollar, which makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase US stocks.
• Nasdaq Composite: is trading lower on Friday, as well. The Nasdaq is particularly sensitive to interest rates, as many of the companies in the index are technology companies that rely on growth in the future.
• FTSE 100: is trading lower on Friday, as investors are concerned about the outlook for the UK economy. The UK is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, high energy prices, and a potential recession.
• DAX: is also trading lower on Friday, as investors are concerned about the outlook for the European economy. The region faces a number of challenges, including rising energy prices and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
• Nikkei 225: is trading lower on Friday, as well. The Japanese yen has depreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months, which has made Japanese exports less competitive.

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin is trading at around $26,700, down about 1% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $27,000 resistance level, and it could face further downside pressure if it fails to do so.
• Ethereum is trading at around $1,500, down about 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum is also facing resistance at the $1,600 level, and it could see further downside pressure if it fails to break above it.
• Solana is trading at around $21, down about 5% in the past 24 hours. Despite that, Solana is benefiting from the integration of Shopify’s Solana Pay, which enables USDC stablecoin payments.
• Polygon is trading at around $0.50, up about 3% in the past 24 hours. Polygon is another altcoin that is benefiting from the recent decline in Ethereum gas fees.

Current Factors Affecting the Markets and Events to Watch Out For

• NFP will be released today!
• ‘Tis the season for Q3 earnings which will affect the price of of all instruments.
• Monday, October 17: US PPI data, China GDP Data
• Tuesday, October 18: US housing market data
• Wednesday, October 19: US FOMC Minutes
• Thursday, October 20: Bank of Japan monetary policy decision
• Geopolitical news: Any escalation in the war in Ukraine could also weigh on the forex market.
• US-China trade war: The US-China trade war is still ongoing, and could continue to weigh on the global economy and the forex market.
• The Chinese government’s recent efforts to stimulate the economy
• Central bank monetary policy decisions
• Changes in investor sentiment
• The adoption of cryptocurrencies by businesses and individuals is growing, but it is still in its early stages.