This week is crucial for gauging central bank policy and the health of major economies. Be prepared for potential volatility in currency markets, especially around key data releases.

Central Bank Decisions:

• FOMC Meeting (Wednesday): No policy change expected (rates at 5.25%-5.50%). Focus will be on the Fed’s stance on future rate cuts.
• ECB and BoE Hawkish Shift: Both banks may tighten policy sooner than the Fed, with potential rate cuts in June (ECB) and August (BoE).

Inflation Data:

• Eurozone Flash Inflation (Tuesday): Inflation expected to hold steady at 2.4% (YoY). Lower-than-expected figures could weaken the Euro.
• Switzerland CPI (Thursday): Important data for Swiss Franc traders.

US Jobs Data:

• ADP Employment (Wednesday): Not the most reliable indicator, but a significant deviation could impact markets.
• JOLTs Report & ISM Manufacturing Employment (Wednesday): Provide insights into labor market health.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday): Key data release. Payroll growth is expected to slow (median estimate: 250,000). A weaker-than-expected number could trigger a dovish shift in rate expectations and weaken the US Dollar.

Others:

• Chinese PMI Data (Tuesday): Important indicator for China’s manufacturing sector.
• Canadian GDP (Tuesday): May influence the Canadian Dollar.
• US Consumer Confidence (Tuesday): Gauge of consumer sentiment.
• May Day Bank Holidays (Wednesday): Reduced liquidity in European markets.
• Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday): US labor market update.