The global economic outlook remains uncertain with mixed data from major economies. Central bank decisions and inflation concerns are key factors influencing currency markets. The US dollar may be pressured by weak US data but could find support if the data is not as bad as expected. The focus for the euro and pound will be on upcoming ECB and Bank of England meetings. The Swiss franc is likely to remain volatile ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting.

Euro (EUR/USD):

  • Analysis: The Euro is currently calm after a slight decline on Monday. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose, but remains below the growth level. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, which could weaken the Euro against the USD. Technically, EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0842. and resistance at 1.0895.
  • Forecast: Short-term direction depends on US data today. Disappointing US data could lead to a rise in the Euro, but strong data could lead to a decline towards 1.0789.


British Pound (GBP/USD):

  • Analysis: The Pound fell after weak UK manufacturing data. Focus shifts to US data today, which could cause volatility. Technically, GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2696. The COT report indicates increased long positions in GBP, suggesting traders believe the Bank of England will cut rates.
  • Forecast: Short-term direction depends on US data today. Disappointing US data could lead to a rise in the Pound, but strong data could lead to a decline towards 1.2646.


Japanese Yen (USD/JPY):

  • Analysis: USD/JPY is calm after failing to capitalize on weak US data on Friday. Technically, USD/JPY is testing support at 156.64. The pair could rise if US data today is strong.
  • Forecast: Short-term direction depends on US data today. Strong US data could lead to a rise in USD/JPY towards 158.25, while weak data could see a decline towards 155.95.


Australian Dollar (AUD/USD):

  • Analysis: The Australian Dollar is trading in a sideways range. The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is on June 18th. Technically, AUD/USD is consolidating above support at 0.6627. The Marlin oscillator suggests a potential bullish bias.
  • Forecast: AUD/USD is likely to remain range-bound until the ECB meeting on June 6th. A breakout could occur after that depending on the outcome of the meeting.


New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD):

  • Analysis: Current: NZD/USD is moving sideways within a bearish trend. It is expected to continue its decline within the dominant bearish wave.
  • Forecast: Sideways trend likely to continue for a few days, followed by a possible decline. Resistance at 0.6240/0.6290. Support at 0.6090/0.6040.


Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD):

  • Analysis: The Canadian Dollar is near the lower boundary of a potential weekly reversal zone on the chart. The horizontal pennant formed over the last two years is nearing completion.
  • Forecast: USD/CAD’s direction depends on the completion of the chart pattern and upcoming economic data. A breakout could occur in the coming days.


Swiss Franc (USD/CHF):

  • Analysis: The Swiss Franc is rallying after comments from the SNB president suggesting intervention to curb inflation. Swiss CPI data is due Tuesday and could impact the SNB’s rate decision on June 28th. Technically, USD/CHF is testing support at 0.8966.
  • Forecast: USD/CHF is likely to decline further in the near term, potentially testing support at 0.8909. A reversal is possible in the second half of the week, with increased volatility around the CPI release.


Gold (XAU/USD):

  • Analysis: Direction will likely depend on the overall risk appetite in the market. Rising inflation could be supportive for gold prices in the long term.
  • Forecast: Gold may see choppy trading with limited upside or downside in the near term.


Key Events To Watch:

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI data (released on June 3rd)
  • ECB meeting on June 6th
  • Federal Reserve meeting on June 12th
  • Swiss CPI data on Tuesday (June 4th)
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on June 18th

Categories: ARFX News

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