Dovish Fed pivot and easing inflation in major economies could weaken USD and strengthen other currencies. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add uncertainty and volatility.

USD:

• Focus: US inflation data (CPI on 11th, PPI on 12th) will heavily influence the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. A dovish pivot is expected.
• Other events: NFIB Small Business Index, Trade Balance, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Final Wholesale Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories

EUR:

• Focus: ECB Economic Bulletin on 11th may hint at future policy direction. Markets are pricing in rate cuts later in the year.
• Other events: German Factory Orders, German Trade Balance, Sentix Investor Confidence, Retail Sales, French Trade Balance, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate

JPY:

• Focus: Bank Lending, Current Account, Economy Watchers Sentiment on 12th could signal a hawkish shift from the BOJ.
• Other events: Tokyo Core CPI, Household Spending, Average Cash Earnings, Leading Indicators

GBP:

• Focus: GDP, Construction Output, Goods Trade Balance, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, NIESR GDP Estimate on 12th could reveal a deeper recession.
• Other events: Housing Equity Withdrawal

Commodities:

• Oil: Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea raise supply concerns, but strong US dollar and high-interest rates keep prices in check.
• Gold: Safe-haven demand from the Gaza crisis and dovish Fed expectations prop up prices.

Cryptocurrencies:

• Focus: Anticipation of ETF approvals peaks as first SEC decisions expected by week’s end. BlackRock and other institutional applications boost expectations.