The week of August 12, 2024, is set to be crucial for global markets with key events in the US, UK, and New Zealand. The US will release CPI inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may cut rates, with markets pricing an 80% chance. The UK will focus on CPI inflation and wage data, which could affect future rate decisions by the Bank of England. Other important events include retail sales and industrial production data from the US and GDP and employment data from the UK.
The EUR/USD pair remains resilient amid low volatility, as the U.S. retail sales report drives focus on the dollar’s trajectory. The GBP/USD sees mild recovery, supported by the UK’s solid GDP growth despite inflation concerns. The JPY weakens as robust U.S. retail sales push USD/JPY higher, testing key resistance levels. Gold recovers from a post-CPI dip, buoyed by a softening U.S. Dollar Index but remains under $2500/oz, needing a significant catalyst to break higher. Bitcoin’s performance remains volatile, influenced by market sentiment and macroeconomic developments.
The EUR/USD pair shows a strong bullish trend, reflecting a weakening dollar. In contrast, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure as UK inflation remains subdued, suggesting a possible rate cut by the BoE. Meanwhile, USD/JPY faces selling pressure despite supportive Japanese economic data, indicating a complex market environment. Gold, seen as a safe haven, is gaining momentum due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of a U.S. recession, while oil prices are affected by rising U.S. crude inventories and ongoing geopolitical risks, balancing demand and supply concerns.
The EUR/USD pair shows resilience despite disappointing European data, with focus shifting to U.S. Producer Price Index figures that could influence a potential rise. GBP/USD experiences modest gains as the UK labor market improves, though wage growth slows, raising concerns about inflation. Meanwhile, the JPY weakens, pressured by dovish expectations from the Bank of Japan, and faces resistance at key levels. Gold prices increase amid geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand, but signs of exhaustion suggest potential for a corrective pullback if resistance at $2,476 holds firm.
The week of August 12, 2024, is set to be crucial for global markets with key events in the US, UK, and New Zealand. The US will release CPI inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may cut rates, with markets pricing an 80% chance. The UK will focus on CPI inflation and wage data, which could affect future rate decisions by the Bank of England. Other important events include retail sales and industrial production data from the US and GDP and employment data from the UK.
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In the recent trading session, the euro, pound, yen, and gold all displayed varying degrees of sensitivity to economic data and central bank comments. The euro saw limited movement amid expectations of further ECB rate cuts, while the pound weakened as investors anticipate Bank of England rate cuts. The yen experienced a sharp decline following dovish BOJ comments, boosting the dollar. The Canadian dollar remained stable ahead of crucial employment data. Gold, although under selling pressure, showed potential for a technical rebound if it maintains support above key levels.
The EUR/USD pair faced limited upward potential due to bearish market conditions and weak Eurozone retail sales. For the GBP/USD pair, a downward trend persisted, pressured by economic uncertainties in the UK. The Japanese yen, after a sharp rise, tumbled following dovish comments from the Bank of Japan, reflecting investor nervousness. Gold showed bullish momentum early in the session but faced selling pressure due to a strong dollar and rising stocks. However, increasing fund demand for gold hints at potential gains ahead.
The euro appears stronger than the pound, yen, and gold, despite concerns about U.S. economic slowdown impacting the dollar. The euro’s potential correction hinges on weak U.S. statistics. The pound is experiencing a bearish trend, with expectations of Bank of England rate cuts affecting its performance. The yen is volatile, with significant gains due to safe-haven demand amid market uncertainties. Gold, currently in a downward trend, faces resistance at key levels, with its performance tied to broader economic and geopolitical factors.
EUR/USD rose on concerns over the US economy, with the Fed likely to stay on the sidelines due to weaker-than-expected data. GBP/USD remains volatile amid mixed UK economic signals and pressure from US data. USD/JPY fell as expectations for US rate cuts grew, with the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates. AUD/USD slid amid fears over the US economy and a possible hawkish hold by the RBA. Gold approached record highs due to recession fears and expected dovish Fed policy. Bitcoin rebounded to $55k after a sharp drop, reflecting market sentiment.
Following a tumultuous week for global markets, investors brace for continued volatility despite a calmer economic calendar. Last week’s disappointing US employment data sparked concerns about economic growth, reversing recent market optimism. While the upcoming week’s economic calendar is less packed, market sentiment remains fragile due to recent concerns about economic growth.
