The market sentiment is currently bullish on the Euro and Pound, despite a lack of fundamental justification. The dollar is under pressure due to expectations of rate cuts from the Fed. Keep an eye on the US employment data, which could significantly impact the dollar’s direction.
Dollar:
Weakening due to dovish Fed expectations, not a strong US economy.
- Jerome Powell did not push back against market expectations of a rate cut in April-June.
- EURUSD reacted positively, with the possibility of reaching above 1.1 if US jobs data disappoints.Key data point to watch: US NonFarm Payrolls (important)
Euro:
Strengthening despite a lack of fundamental reasons.
- EURUSD rose even after Christine Lagarde of the ECB maintained a hawkish stance.
- Technically, the euro may see a correction soon, but sentiment is bullish.
- Key levels to watch: 1.0568, 1.0888-1.0896, etc. (refer to source for full list)
- EURUSD longs favored as long as the price stays above 1.088.
British Pound:
Strengthening despite modest fiscal stimulus.
- The pound rose after Jeremy Hunt announced a smaller-than-expected stimulus package.
- The rise is likely due to expectations of higher UK bond issuance and a dovish Bank of England.
- Technically, the pound may be overbought, but the market is ignoring fundamentals.
- Key data point to watch: US NonFarm Payrolls (important)
- Key levels to watch: 1.2215, 1.2605-1.2620, etc. (refer to source for full list)
- Long positions on GBPUSD with targets at 1.275 and 1.2785 if US Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint.
Canadian Dollar:
Neutral with a slight bearish bias in the long term
- The Bank of Canada signaled a wait-and-see approach, but Governor Macklem hinted that rate cuts could be coming in June if inflation falls as expected.
- The Canadian dollar strengthened yesterday after the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged at 5%.
- The US releases Nonfarm Payrolls data today. A strong report could put upward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
- USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3495. Below, there is support at 1.3429. 1.3550 and 1.3616 are the next resistance lines. Bulls may regain control in the short term if the labor market report disappoints.
Cryptocurrencies:
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BTC: Bitcoin is in a bullish impulse wave, but a short-term correction to around $60,293 is expected soon.
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ETH: Ethereum is also in a bullish impulse wave, but a short-term correction to around $3358 is possible soon.
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XRP: Ripple is in a bullish impulse wave, and the price is expected to rise to the high of $0.695 soon.
Important Events for March 8th:
- US Non-Farm Payrolls: This data release could impact the USD if it deviates significantly from expectations.
- EU Third Estimate of GDP: This report is unlikely to move the market unless the figures are surprisingly strong or weak.
- Canada’s Labor market report: could impact CAD
