The euro steadied after gains driven by soft US labor data while the pound struggled amid limited domestic catalysts and cautious outlook from the Bank of England. The yen faced political turbulence in Japan and shifting central bank expectations, adding volatility. The Australian dollar found support in confidence data but remained tied to China’s slowing trade outlook. The Canadian dollar weakened with sharp job losses while policy uncertainty weighed. The Swiss franc retained safe-haven strength but eased slightly on improving market sentiment. Gold surged near record highs, supported by central bank buying and expectations of easier US policy, reinforcing its role as a hedge against uncertainty.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Euro supported by stronger-than-expected German industrial production data.
- US labor market weakness (NFP +22k, unemployment at 4.3%) reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut this month.
- ECB expected to keep rates unchanged, with focus shifting to forward guidance.
- Political attention on French PM Bayrou’s vote of confidence adds a layer of risk.
- Lack of high-impact US data (only consumer credit) means range trading likely in near term.
Market Behavior & Outlook
- Euro consolidating above 1.17 with limited upward momentum.
- Broader trend shows sideways-to-bullish bias but capped at resistance.
- Stronger moves may only occur if ECB rhetoric shifts hawkish or if US CPI surprises.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.1696, 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629, 1.1584
- Resistance: 1.1737, 1.1760, 1.1810
Forecast
- Short-term consolidation within 1.1680–1.1760 range.
- Bias upward but limited; selling opportunities near 1.1760/1.1810 if rejection signals appear.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Pound supported by broad dollar weakness after US labor data.
- Lack of UK data limits bullish continuation.
- BoE policy outlook remains uncertain; Bailey highlights uncertainty over timing of rate cuts.
- Domestic risks include fiscal concerns ahead of UK’s autumn budget.
- US consumer credit could temporarily strengthen the dollar.
Market Behavior & Outlook
- Current upmove appears overbought with signs of weakening momentum.
- Technical correction possible before any sustained rise.
- Weekly structure points to sideways-to-bullish bias with risk of pullback before recovery.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3398, 1.3312
- Resistance: 1.3549, 1.3700, 1.3750
Forecast
- Likely to test support around 1.3468–1.3449 before resuming upward attempts.
- Consolidation expected between 1.3440–1.3550; a breakout above 1.3550 would open 1.3700.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Yen strengthened after Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, adding political volatility.
- Japan’s revised GDP shows stronger growth, reinforcing BoJ’s hawkish stance.
- US labor data weakness caps dollar strength but US consumer credit could offer short-term support.
- Broader Fed policy expectations still weigh on dollar.
Market Behavior & Outlook
- Pair rejected near 148.00 and slipped lower, showing difficulty breaking higher resistance.
- Weekly outlook suggests sideways trading with risk of declines toward support.
- Market cautious ahead of US inflation data later this week.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 147.87, 147.09, 145.70, 145.20
- Resistance: 148.26, 148.76, 148.93, 149.55, 150.34
Forecast
- Consolidation expected between 147.00–148.50.
- Risk skewed to downside if Fed signals aggressive rate cuts.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
- Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Aussie boosted by broad USD weakness post-NFP.
- Confidence data (Westpac, NAB) expected to improve, providing domestic support.
- Trade risks remain as China (Australia’s top partner) faces export weakness amid tariffs and deflation pressures.
- China’s slowdown could cap sustained AUD gains despite short-term strength.
- Market Behavior & Outlook
- Pair recently tested 0.6598, its highest since late July.
- Sideways bias near resistance zone with potential dips before resuming uptrend.
- Investors awaiting China trade and sentiment data for further direction.
- Support & Resistance
- Support: 0.6551, 0.6512, 0.6480
- Resistance: 0.6594, 0.6633, 0.6670
- Forecast
- Short-term consolidation between 0.6530–0.6630.
- Bias remains bullish if global risk appetite stays strong.
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Canadian jobs data weak: -65.5k in August after -40.8k in July, highest unemployment since 2021.
- US-Canada trade war with tariffs weighing heavily on Canadian exports.
- BoC hesitant to cut rates despite labor market weakness due to inflation above 3%.
- US weak NFP pushes USD lower, but CAD also pressured by domestic weakness.
Market Behavior & Outlook
- USD/CAD steady around 1.3820, showing sideways behavior.
- Pair broke below support at 1.3830, now testing 1.3821.
- Volatility likely to rise as inflation data and BoC decision approach.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3821, 1.3800, 1.3750
- Resistance: 1.3843, 1.3852, 1.3920, 1.3970
Forecast
- Sideways consolidation with possible dips toward 1.3800 before rebounding.
- Broader outlook favors upside if BoC stays cautious and Fed cuts slower than expected.
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc
- Key Factors Affecting Pair
- Dollar weakness after NFP weighs on USD/CHF.
- Safe-haven flows reduced due to optimistic global sentiment.
- Fed expected to cut rates, capping USD upside.
- Focus on US inflation (PPI, CPI) later in week for clearer direction.
- Market Behavior & Outlook
- USD/CHF attempting rebound from 0.7950 but struggling.
- Market capped by resistance near 0.8000; downside bias persists.
- Weekly structure suggests sideways early, then potential bullish reversal if data favors USD.
- Support & Resistance
- Support: 0.7950, 0.7930, 0.7880
- Resistance: 0.8000, 0.8170, 0.8220
- Forecast
- Range-bound early in the week; bias remains bearish below 0.8000.
- Potential recovery only if US CPI surprises to the upside.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Affecting Price
- Gold rally driven by Fed easing expectations after weak NFP.
- Central banks (especially China) continue buying gold, diversifying away from USD.
- Political risks, Fed independence concerns, and inflation fears boosting safe-haven demand.
- Goldman Sachs and others forecast possible move toward $5,000 if confidence in USD erodes further.
Market Behavior & Outlook
- Gold surged to all-time high near $3,600.
- Short-term technical correction possible after sharp rally.
- Structure remains bullish with risks of consolidation.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 3575, 3550, 3530, 3515
- Resistance: 3600, 3635, 3670, 3682
Forecast
- Likely consolidation between 3550–3635.
- Longer-term trend remains bullish, targeting 3670 if momentum sustains.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 9, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Sideways-Bullish | 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629 | 1.1737, 1.1760, 1.1810 | Consolidation with mild upward tilt |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Sideways | 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3398 | 1.3549, 1.3700, 1.3750 | Range-bound, correction before recovery |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Sideways-Bearish | 147.87, 147.09, 145.20 | 148.26, 148.93, 150.34 | Political risk-driven, downside risk |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | 0.6551, 0.6512, 0.6480 | 0.6594, 0.6633, 0.6670 | Upside bias if China outlook stabilizes |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Sideways-Bullish | 1.3821, 1.3800, 1.3750 | 1.3843, 1.3920, 1.3970 | Sideways, volatility ahead of BoC |
| 🇨🇭 USD/CHF | Bearish | 0.7950, 0.7930, 0.7880 | 0.8000, 0.8170, 0.8220 | Bearish bias, recovery only on strong CPI |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3575, 3550, 3530, 3515 | 3600, 3635, 3670, 3682 | Strong bullish trend, consolidation likely |
Categories: Market News
