The euro faces pressure from weak momentum as traders await guidance from central banks, while the pound struggles with mixed inflation signals and political uncertainty. The yen steadies with attention on domestic data and Fed comments, balancing between support for growth and risk of stronger policy shifts. The Australian dollar holds on cautious optimism ahead of the central bank meeting, with inflation and labor conditions shaping the outlook. Gold shines as the standout asset, surging to record highs on dollar weakness, geopolitical unease, and strong central bank demand, securing its role as both a safe haven and growth driver.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macro backdrop:
- The euro weakened below 1.17, pressured by diverging central bank policies.
- Fed expected to deliver at least two more cuts this year, though US data shows resilience in labor and services.
- ECB paused easing, signaling that its rate-cut cycle may be done for now.
- European manufacturing remains in contraction while services show tentative recovery.
Political/trade factors:
- US tariffs on pharmaceuticals added trade uncertainty, though Europe secured some concessions.
- EU preparing tariffs on Chinese steel, which could affect broader trade sentiment.
Short-term drivers:
- FOMC speeches from Waller and Williams will set tone on rates.
- US pending home sales data could confirm or challenge housing market strength.
Technical view:
- Downtrend intact but stabilizing near support.
- Key supports: 1.1702, 1.1661, 1.1634.
- Key resistances: 1.1728, 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819.
Forecast:
- Euro may consolidate between 1.1660–1.1760.
- Break below 1.1660 opens path to 1.1630.
- Break above 1.1755 targets 1.1819 and potentially restores bullish bias.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macro backdrop:
- UK inflation slowing but not enough to guarantee rate cuts soon.
- BoE Governor Bailey ties policy to inflation trajectory, while other MPC members warn against premature easing.
- Political noise around renationalization and borrowing weighs on sentiment.
- Domestic savings remain high, but labor conditions are easing.
Short-term drivers:
- Weak US housing data could support GBP.
- Dovish Fed commentary would amplify upside momentum.
Technical view:
- Current downtrend correcting upward.
- Key supports: 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315.
- Key resistances: 1.3434, 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532.
Forecast:
- Consolidation likely between 1.3330–1.3460.
- Break above 1.3463 opens path to 1.3532.
- Break below 1.3330 may revive bearish pressure toward 1.3315.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macro backdrop:
- Dollar-yen easing slightly from 150 highs amid US political uncertainty and risk of shutdown.
- Japan releasing Tankan survey, consumer confidence, industrial production, and retail sales – all crucial for BoJ’s stance.
- BoJ July minutes showed readiness for further hikes if inflation supports it.
- Political backdrop: new LDP leadership election in early October adds uncertainty.
Short-term drivers:
- US pending home sales and Fed speeches will dictate dollar direction.
- Softer US data may drag USD/JPY lower; hawkish Fed rhetoric could reignite 150 challenge.
Technical view:
- Medium-term trend still bullish but facing resistance.
- Key supports: 148.88, 148.36, 147.95, 147.50.
- Key resistances: 150.00, 150.73.
Forecast:
- Likely range between 148.40–150.00.
- Break below 148.36 could extend decline to 147.50.
- Break above 150 confirms resumption of bullish momentum.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
- Macro backdrop:
- RBA expected to hold rates steady in September.
- August CPI rose to 3% due to temporary factors (energy subsidies ending).
- Labor market weaker (job losses, higher unemployment), though Q2 GDP stronger than forecast.
- RBA Governor Bullock stresses inflation moving toward target and labor near full employment.
- Markets pricing in November/December rate cut; not expected in September.
- Short-term drivers:
- September RBA meeting outcome, Fed tone, and global risk sentiment.
- If RBA hints at caution against cuts, AUD may find support.
- Technical view:
- Corrective downtrend in play, with potential for rebound.
- Key supports: 0.6480, 0.6430.
- Key resistances: 0.6600, 0.6650.
- Forecast:
- Short-term weakness may test 0.6480.
- Rebound expected if buyers defend support, with potential move back to 0.6600–0.6650.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macro backdrop:
- Gold hit an all-time high above $3,812 amid US dollar weakness and political uncertainty.
- Looming US government shutdown and unclear Fed path boosting demand.
- Delays in labor market data release could strengthen expectations of October Fed cuts.
- Central banks increasing reserves; ETFs showing largest inflows since 2022.
Market drivers:
- Weaker USD, geopolitical risks, and distrust in US political stability all fueling demand.
- Investors shifting from seeing gold as only a hedge to treating it as a profit-generating asset.
Technical view:
- Bullish momentum intact.
- Support levels: 3,750, 3,700.
- Resistance levels: 3,820, 3,850.
Forecast:
- Gold likely to remain upward biased, consolidating between 3,750–3,820.
- Break above 3,820 opens path to 3,850+.
- Pullbacks likely met with strong demand.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 30, 2025
| Asset | Trend Bias | Key Supports | Key Resistances | Forecast Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish-bias | 1.1702, 1.1661, 1.1634 | 1.1728, 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819 | Range-bound; break above 1.1755 turns bullish |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish-bias | 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315 | 1.3434, 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532 | Consolidation; break above 1.3463 bullish |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bullish-bias | 148.88, 148.36, 147.95, 147.50 | 150.00, 150.73 | Sideways; above 150 resumes uptrend |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Neutral-bias | 0.6480, 0.6430 | 0.6600, 0.6650 | Short-term weakness, rebound potential |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Strong Bullish | 3,750, 3,700 | 3,820, 3,850 | Uptrend intact; dips likely bought |
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