The euro faces pressure from mixed lending and money supply trends, while weak German sentiment weighs on confidence. The pound remains vulnerable as soft business activity dampens support, leaving it reliant on broader dollar moves. The yen stays sensitive to US labor and growth data, with Japanese policymakers signaling caution despite hints of future shifts. The Swiss franc weakens as the central bank holds rates steady and warns of trade risks, keeping growth subdued. Gold, though pressured by strong US data and a firmer dollar, remains supported by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, ensuring its role as a safe-haven hedge.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- Euro weakened after disappointing German Ifo Business Climate data, which dropped to its lowest since May.
- Contradictory signals: stronger services sector vs weaker manufacturing sector in the Eurozone.
- US economic data remains the main driver—particularly initial jobless claims, GDP revisions, and trade balance.
- Fed Chair Powell confirmed a cautious stance on rates but markets still expect cuts later this year.
- Capital outflows from the eurozone continue to weigh on money supply (M3), highlighting growth risks.
Market sentiment
- The euro pulled back from a multi-year high, showing signs of exhaustion.
- Short-term sentiment remains bearish unless US data disappoints, which could lift EUR/USD.
Technical outlook
- Support levels: 1.1727, 1.1704
- Resistance levels: 1.1763, 1.1786, 1.1825, 1.1858
- Current trend: short-term bearish, but SMT divergence with GBP suggests possible reversal.
Forecast
- If US data is strong → further downside toward 1.1704.
- If US data is weak → rebound toward 1.1786 – 1.1825.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- UK business activity slowed, with PMIs coming in below expectations.
- Weak manufacturing (below 50) raises concerns of recessionary risks.
- Signs of a cooling labor market may force the BoE into a more dovish stance.
- US economic data remains decisive for intraday moves.
Market sentiment
- Pound is under pressure, trading weaker than the euro.
- Investors are cautious due to political uncertainty and weaker fundamentals.
Technical outlook
- Support level: 1.3398
- Resistance levels: 1.3459, 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713
- Trend: medium-term bearish.
- SMT divergence with EUR/USD may suggest potential for a short-lived rebound.
Forecast
- If price consolidates above 1.3459 → recovery toward 1.3530.
- If support at 1.3398 breaks → risk of further drop toward 1.3407 – 1.3360.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macroeconomic context
- Strong US data supports dollar strength, while Fed’s cautious tone limits upside.
- BoJ minutes revealed some members favoring future rate hikes, though policy remains ultra-loose.
- Japan’s economy is growing moderately, but higher import costs and weak sentiment persist.
Market sentiment
- Dollar remains strong against yen, trading near key resistance.
- Markets cautious due to BoJ’s potential policy shift in coming months.
Technical outlook
- Support levels: 148.26, 147.97, 147.46, 147.14, 146.86
- Resistance levels: 148.76, 149.13
- Current trend: medium-term bullish, but price is at resistance with correction risks.
Forecast
- If resistance at 149.13 breaks → upside continuation toward 150.00 psychological level.
- If support at 148.26 breaks → correction toward 147.46.
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc
Macroeconomic context
- SNB kept rates at 0%, signaling an end to its aggressive easing cycle.
- Swiss GDP growth revised lower, inflation remains subdued.
- Swiss economy faces pressure from US tariffs, affecting exports.
- Strong US GDP data pushed USD/CHF higher, overwhelming SNB’s neutral stance.
Market sentiment
- USD/CHF strengthened sharply after US GDP surprise.
- CHF is under pressure, particularly against USD, as dovish SNB outlook contrasts with resilient US data.
Technical outlook
- Support levels: 0.7939, 0.7920
- Resistance levels: 0.7971, 0.7990, 0.8022
- Current trend: rangebound, but bias is bullish above 0.7975.
Forecast
- If USD strength persists → test of 0.8022 likely.
- If SNB signals concern over CHF weakness → correction back to 0.7940 – 0.7920.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- Gold faces pressure from strong US data and higher USD.
- Still supported by geopolitical risks (US-Russia, Middle East tensions).
- Central bank demand remains robust, supporting long-term bullish bias.
- Market speculation on Fed rate cuts continues to underpin gold.
Market sentiment
- Despite corrections, gold remains close to all-time highs.
- Traders remain buyers on dips due to safe-haven demand.
Technical outlook
- Support levels: 3700, 3645, 3615–3600
- Resistance levels: 3752, 3765–3770, 3790, 3800, 3849
- Trend: bullish but overbought, with risk of short-term pullback.
Forecast
- If price holds above 3700 → bullish continuation toward 3790–3800.
- If breakdown below 3700 → correction toward 3645–3615 before next rebound.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 26, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish → Possible rebound | 1.1727, 1.1704 | 1.1763, 1.1786, 1.1825 | Weak US data → rebound; strong US data → further drop |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3398 | 1.3459, 1.3530, 1.3585 | Risk of decline unless it clears 1.3459 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish but near resistance | 148.26, 147.46 | 148.76, 149.13 | Break above 149.13 → 150.00; correction if below 148.26 |
| 🇨🇭 USD/CHF | Bullish bias | 0.7939, 0.7920 | 0.7971, 0.7990, 0.8022 | Strong US GDP supports 0.8022 target |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish but overbought | 3700, 3645, 3615 | 3752, 3770, 3790, 3800 | Above 3700 → test 3790; below 3700 → correction |
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