The euro weakened as German business sentiment data disappointed, reflecting broader concerns over growth, while the pound faced selling pressure on soft UK figures and fiscal uncertainty. The yen struggled as dollar strength persisted despite mixed U.S. signals, while the Australian dollar gained temporary support from rising inflation though risks remain due to weak labor data. Precious metals diverged, with silver surging on strong demand and dovish central bank expectations, outpacing gold, which held firm as investors weighed policy direction and safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainty.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- The euro weakened after Germany’s IFO expectations index showed a decline, signaling growing business concerns.
- Weak German sentiment reflects broader Eurozone economic fragility, with inflation still high but growth faltering.
- The U.S. dollar remains supported by cautious Fed rhetoric and solid labor market concerns. Powell confirmed that rates remain restrictive even after September’s cut.
- Housing data and FOMC member Daly’s remarks will influence intraday volatility.
Key drivers
- Diverging policies: Fed cautious on rate cuts, ECB constrained by weak growth.
- Euro sensitive to incoming Eurozone inflation and employment data.
- U.S. housing and labor market releases will drive near-term sentiment.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.1790, 1.1758, 1.1704
- Resistance: 1.1825, 1.1858
Forecast
- Bias remains mildly bullish above 1.1789, but a break below 1.1758 opens risk toward 1.1704.
- Upside capped near 1.1858 unless U.S. data disappoints significantly.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- The pound remains under pressure following weaker UK PMI readings and elevated borrowing figures.
- Growth concerns outweigh inflation risks, with fears of stagnation weighing on sterling demand.
- Sterling volatility depends on U.S. housing data and FOMC speeches later in the week.
Key drivers
- Weak UK economic performance relative to peers.
- Fiscal concerns ahead of November’s budget.
- USD strength continues to limit upside potential for GBP.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3493, 1.3450, 1.3398
- Resistance: 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713
Forecast
- Short-term downtrend intact; bias bearish below 1.3493.
- Recovery possible only above 1.3530, targeting 1.3585.
- A break below 1.3450 risks accelerating toward 1.3398.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macroeconomic context
- Yen weakened again as Powell highlighted uncertainty on future Fed rate cuts.
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell at its fastest pace in six months; services slowed as well.
- Market awaits Tokyo inflation data and BoJ minutes for signals of future tightening.
Key drivers
- Fed caution continues to underpin USD strength.
- Domestic weakness in Japan limits JPY support, though safe-haven flows may re-emerge if U.S. data disappoints.
- Political uncertainty ahead of LDP leadership change may impact sentiment.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 147.46, 147.14, 146.86
- Resistance: 147.95, 148.76, 148.93
Forecast
- Medium-term uptrend intact.
- Buyers need a push above 147.95 for continuation to 148.76–148.93.
- Break below 146.86 could resume downside momentum.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- August CPI rose to 3.0%, surprising on the upside but driven mainly by temporary factors (energy subsidy removal, food volatility).
- Labor market data disappointed, showing declining full-time jobs and higher unemployment.
- The RBA is expected to hold rates steady in September, with October’s quarterly CPI carrying more weight.
Key drivers
- Temporary inflation spikes offer limited policy impact.
- Weak labor market undermines long-term AUD strength.
- Fed policy stance favors USD over AUD in the medium term.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 0.6580, 0.6555
- Resistance: 0.6655, 0.6680/0.6700
Forecast
- Short-term bullish bias above 0.6580, targeting 0.6655–0.6700.
- A break below 0.6555 negates upside momentum, resuming bearish trend.
🥈Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook – Silver vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- Silver surged to fresh 14-year highs, outperforming gold as dovish Fed sentiment boosts demand for non-yielding assets.
- Structural demand growth continues: industrial use and classification as a critical mineral reinforce long-term bullish outlook.
- Supply constraints further support elevated prices.
Key drivers
- Fed policy dovish tilt supportive of silver.
- Strong physical demand from both investment and industry.
- Safe-haven demand amid debt sustainability concerns.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 43.595, 43.205
- Resistance: 44.395, 44.805
- Pivot: 44.005
Forecast
- Bias remains bullish while above 43.205.
- A break above 44.395 opens path to 44.805.
- Downside only if support at 43.205 fails.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macroeconomic context
- Gold lags behind silver but remains supported by dovish Fed stance and growing economic uncertainty.
- U.S. housing data will shape short-term moves, as weak figures may boost gold demand.
- Persistent inflation keeps gold relevant as a hedge despite higher real yields.
Key drivers
- Fed rate path uncertainty.
- Safe-haven demand amid global economic slowdown.
- USD strength limits near-term upside but doesn’t reverse long-term bullish bias.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1915, 1898, 1875
- Resistance: 1940, 1965, 1985
Forecast
- Consolidation likely between 1915–1940.
- Break above 1940 targets 1965–1985.
- A move below 1898 risks accelerating declines to 1875.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 25, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mildly bullish | 1.1790, 1.1758, 1.1704 | 1.1825, 1.1858 | German data, Fed stance |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3493, 1.3450, 1.3398 | 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713 | Weak UK PMIs, fiscal risks |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bullish trend | 147.46, 147.14, 146.86 | 147.95, 148.76, 148.93 | Fed cautiousness, BoJ outlook |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Neutral-bullish | 0.6580, 0.6555 | 0.6655, 0.6680/0.6700 | CPI surprise, weak jobs |
| 🥈 XAG/USD | Strong bullish | 43.595, 43.205 | 44.395, 44.805 | Supply shortage, Fed dovish |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Range-bound | 1915, 1898, 1875 | 1940, 1965, 1985 | Safe-haven demand, Fed policy |
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