The euro is holding firm as traders await the Fed meeting, with expectations of easing keeping demand supported, while the pound shows resilience despite weak local data. The yen stays under pressure as investors weigh political uncertainty in Japan against global risk appetite. The Australian dollar is swayed by soft Chinese figures but still finds strength from global sentiment. Oil prices remain volatile, pulled between supply risks from geopolitics and weaker demand signals from inventories and China’s slowdown. Gold continues to climb, supported by safe-haven demand and speculation of softer US monetary policy.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Context
- The euro continues to hold above recent support levels despite mixed eurozone data.
- Narrowing of the eurozone trade surplus provided temporary pressure but the pair rebounded, showing resilience.
- Traders are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where markets price in a high probability of a 25bps rate cut.
Key Factors
- Eurozone side: Sluggish trade balance and subdued inflation weigh on the euro but not enough to derail short-term momentum.
- US side: Cooling labor market and stable but subdued inflation support expectations of Fed easing.
- Event risk: Empire Manufacturing Index may give intraday volatility but unlikely to shift the broader bullish tone unless exceptionally strong.
Technical Levels
- Support: 1.1717, 1.1703, 1.1677, 1.1642, 1.1629
- Resistance: 1.1752, 1.1786, 1.1826
Outlook
- Bias remains bullish toward 1.1786 and possibly 1.1826 if US data is weak.
- A break below 1.1629 would reopen downside risks.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Context
- The pound trades near 1.35 despite weak UK GDP and falling industrial production.
- Lack of fresh domestic data allowed the pound to follow broader market sentiment.
- Bank of England expected to remain on hold, with focus shifting to November’s meeting.
Key Factors
- UK side: Weak economic data raises concerns about domestic growth, but the pound benefits from relative resilience and positioning.
- US side: Dollar’s direction depends on Fed outcome and Empire Manufacturing Index.
- Sentiment: Investors remain cautious but not aggressively bearish on GBP, given oversold conditions.
Technical Levels
- Support: 1.3523, 1.3503, 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3417
- Resistance: 1.3585, 1.3618, 1.3662
Outlook
- Near-term bullish bias while above 1.3523, targeting 1.3618–1.3662.
- A break below 1.3417 could shift trend back to bearish.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Context
- Yen weakened toward 147.4 as Japan and US reaffirmed exchange rate discipline.
- Political uncertainty in Japan following PM resignation adds to volatility.
- The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, limiting yen upside.
Key Factors
- Japan side: Political instability, BOJ dovish stance, and weak growth outlook cap yen strength.
- US side: Fed easing expectations limit upside for USD, keeping pair in consolidation.
- Geopolitical: Ongoing currency discussions with US Treasury prevent sharp moves.
Technical Levels
- Support: 147.32, 146.82, 146.74, 147.09
- Resistance: 147.48, 148.07, 148.24, 148.77
Outlook
- Trend remains bullish above 147.32, targeting 148.07–148.24.
- A sustained break below 147.09 may trigger renewed downside toward 146.74.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Current Context
- Aussie dollar rose after its strongest week since April, supported by improving sentiment despite weak Chinese data.
- China’s slowing industrial production, retail sales, and higher unemployment weigh on demand outlook.
- Fed policy shift will be key driver for AUD direction.
Key Factors
- Australia side: Momentum driven by external conditions, especially China’s slowdown and Fed rate cut expectations.
- China side: Weak data underscores vulnerability of AUD given close trade ties.
- US side: Expected Fed cut may provide short-term support for AUD.
Technical Levels
- Support: 0.6630, 0.6612, 0.6560
- Resistance: 0.6650, 0.6668, 0.6720, 0.6770
Outlook
- Range-bound with bullish bias toward 0.6720 if Fed cuts as expected.
- A break below 0.6560 would signal deeper downside.
⚫ Oil (WTI/BRENT) Outlook – Oil
Current Context
- Brent crude consolidates between $65–67.4 amid geopolitical tensions and mixed fundamentals.
- Supply risks remain elevated due to Russian infrastructure attacks and Western sanctions threats.
- Demand outlook weakens as US inventories rise and Chinese data disappoints.
Key Factors
- Supply: Geopolitical risks from Russia and potential G7 sanctions create upward pressure.
- Demand: Slowing China growth and rising US inventories limit bullish moves.
- Market sentiment: Hedge funds cut long positions, reflecting caution.
Technical Levels
- Support: 61.54, 60.48, 59.28
- Resistance: 63.80, 65.00, 67.4
Outlook
- Sideways range continues, with risk skewed lower if $65 breaks.
- Fed easing could give short-term support, but structural fundamentals remain weak.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Context
- Gold continues to strengthen, supported by expectations of Fed easing and geopolitical risk.
- Market has priced in a 25bps rate cut, with some speculation about a larger cut.
- US labor market weakness and stable inflation reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Key Factors
- Macro: Softer US data and Fed policy easing are supportive.
- Geopolitical: Rising global uncertainty sustains safe-haven flows.
- Market sentiment: Strong bullish positioning continues as gold posts fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Technical Levels
- Support: 3620, 3600, 3578, 3560, 3511
- Resistance: 3655, 3700, 3680
Outlook
- Bullish bias targeting 3700 in the near term.
- Failure to hold 3511 would shift bias back to bearish.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 16, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.1717, 1.1703, 1.1629 | 1.1752, 1.1786, 1.1826 | Targeting 1.1786+ if Fed eases |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish | 1.3523, 1.3485, 1.3417 | 1.3585, 1.3618, 1.3662 | Bias higher while above 1.3523 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 147.32, 146.82, 147.09 | 147.48, 148.07, 148.24 | Upside capped unless Fed surprises |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Neutral-Bullish | 0.6630, 0.6612, 0.6560 | 0.6668, 0.6720, 0.6770 | May extend gains if Fed cuts |
| ⚫OIL | Sideways-Bearish | 61.54, 60.48, 59.28 | 63.80, 65.00, 67.4 | Rangebound, downside bias |
| 🪙 Gold | Bullish | 3620, 3600, 3560, 3511 | 3655, 3680, 3700 | Strong upward bias toward 3700 |
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