The euro remains pressured as traders await key US inflation data that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with weaker figures likely to offer relief for the currency. The pound is supported by political stability and firm expectations that the Bank of England will maintain its hawkish stance, contrasting with a softer outlook for the Fed. The yen holds steady as a safe-haven, with its direction closely tied to US inflation results and global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, gold benefits from softer producer prices, rising geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further US rate cuts, reinforcing its role as a preferred hedge against uncertainty in both economic and political spheres.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Market focus on US CPI data, both headline and core, as it will directly influence the Fed’s policy path.
- The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, as Eurozone inflation remains stable but growth concerns persist.
- Softer US labor market data last week increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, though the size depends on inflation surprises.
- Political backdrop: Macron’s appointment of a new Prime Minister adds some short-term political stability in France.
Market Sentiment
- The euro is consolidating around 1.1700, reflecting hesitation ahead of CPI results.
- Dollar strength may return if CPI comes in higher than forecast, but a downside surprise could propel the euro higher.
Support Levels: 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629, 1.1584, 1.1528
Resistance Levels: 1.1756, 1.1786
Forecast
- Bullish case: If CPI is softer, EUR/USD could climb toward 1.1756–1.1786.
- Bearish case: If CPI is stronger, a break below 1.1642 could extend losses toward 1.1584.
- Short-term consolidation likely until CPI releases provide clarity.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- US CPI data remains the most critical factor influencing GBP/USD.
- In the UK, political risks have stabilized with cabinet reshuffling well received by markets.
- The Bank of England is maintaining a hawkish stance, with expectations of delayed rate cuts into 2026, supporting sterling’s appeal.
- Divergence between a dovish Fed and a hawkish BoE strengthens the case for pound appreciation.
Market Sentiment
- GBP remains firm around 1.3520, consolidating after recent gains.
- Investors see potential for sterling to retest its multi-year highs if US inflation softens and Fed rate cuts accelerate.
Support Levels: 1.3505, 1.3545, 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3398, 1.3312, 1.3281
Resistance Levels: 1.3556, 1.3585
Forecast
- Bullish case: Weak US CPI could lift GBP/USD to 1.3556–1.3585.
- Bearish case: Strong US CPI could trigger a drop toward 1.3464 and below.
- Overall outlook leans bullish due to UK stability and policy divergence.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Drivers
- Dollar-yen remains sensitive to US CPI results, with lower inflation boosting yen demand as a safe-haven.
- Japan’s business sentiment is improving thanks to export recovery before tariffs take effect.
- Producer prices in Japan rose modestly, adding to speculation of domestic cost pressures, though the BoJ remains cautious.
- US producer prices have weakened, raising bets on Fed cuts, which in turn supports yen strength.
Market Sentiment
- USD/JPY is steady near 147.5, caught between bullish momentum and risk of correction if US data disappoints.
- The yen retains its safe-haven appeal, especially amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Support Levels: 147.25, 146.82, 146.74
Resistance Levels: 147.54, 147.87, 148.26
Forecast
- Bullish case: Stronger US CPI could push USD/JPY above 147.87 toward 148.26.
- Bearish case: Weak CPI may drag the pair below 147.25, opening downside toward 146.82.
- Medium-term remains bullish, but short-term risks tilt to downside if US data weakens.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Recent US PPI data showed a decline, reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
- Market consensus is for multiple Fed cuts this year, capping the dollar and supporting gold.
- Rising geopolitical tensions: NATO involvement in Ukraine, heightened Middle East unrest, and US tariffs on China/India, all boost safe-haven demand.
- Weak labor market data and softer producer prices are also fueling gold’s upside.
Market Sentiment
- Gold has risen above $3640, reflecting strong demand for safe assets.
- Investors are cautious ahead of today’s US CPI, which could determine whether the rally extends or corrects.
Support Levels: 3600, 3575, 3560, 3500, 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374
Resistance Levels: 3660, 3700
Forecast
- Bullish case: Softer US CPI could propel gold above 3660 and toward 3700.
- Bearish case: Strong CPI may cause a pullback to 3600 or deeper to 3575.
- Broader trend remains bullish due to Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 12, 2025
| Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | ECB steady policy, US CPI, Fed rate outlook | 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629 | 1.1756, 1.1786 | Consolidation, CPI-driven move |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | BoE hawkish stance, Fed dovish shift, UK politics | 1.3505, 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3398 | 1.3556, 1.3585 | Bullish bias, CPI-dependent |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | US CPI, Fed cuts, Japanese exports, safe haven | 147.25, 146.82, 146.74 | 147.54, 147.87, 148.26 | Stable, risk of yen gains if US CPI weak |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Fed cuts, inflation data, geopolitical risk | 3600, 3575, 3560, 3500 | 3660, 3700 | Bullish, CPI and geopolitics supportive |
