The euro held firm despite political turmoil in France and mixed data from Italy, while the pound consolidated as markets await key U.S. inflation reports and Bank of England guidance. The yen remained steady, reflecting caution ahead of major U.S. releases, with Japan showing stronger business sentiment despite political uncertainty. The Australian dollar gained support from resilient domestic conditions and improving Chinese data, though inflation expectations and trade ties remain crucial. The Canadian dollar weakened under soft employment and sluggish growth, leaving it vulnerable to external pressures. Gold steadied as investors balanced inflation risks, central bank outlooks, and geopolitical tensions, keeping demand for safe havens intact.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Drivers
- Political uncertainty in France after the fall of Bayrou’s government, raising concerns about Eurozone stability.
- Italian industrial production improved, easing recession fears but not reversing the broader slowdown.
- Energy price volatility and sticky inflation remain critical challenges for the euro area.
- ECB expected to hold rates steady, but tone of communication will guide expectations.
- U.S. PPI and wholesale inventories data key for dollar direction; strong results could strengthen the USD.
Forecast
- Short-term consolidation likely above 1.1700 as traders await U.S. inflation data.
- Break above resistance could see recovery toward late-August highs.
- Weak U.S. data favors euro strength; stronger U.S. inflation would renew downside pressure.
Key Levels
- Support: 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642, 1.1629
- Resistance: 1.1756, 1.1786
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Drivers
- UK data limited; inflation still high at 3.8%, limiting BoE’s ability to cut rates aggressively.
- US payroll revision weighed on sentiment but dollar remains resilient.
- Investors watching U.S. PPI and CPI; softer inflation could allow GBP to rebound.
- Consumer spending data in the UK showed resilience, lending some support to the pound.
Forecast
- Likely rangebound trading until U.S. inflation data is released.
- Upside possible if U.S. inflation weakens, but capped by BoE’s cautious stance.
- Risks remain tilted to the downside if U.S. data signals inflation persistence.
Key Levels
- Support: 1.3545, 1.3485, 1.3449
- Resistance: 1.3585
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Drivers
- Japanese yen steady near 147 amid political uncertainty after Ishiba’s resignation.
- Japanese business sentiment improving, showing resilience in manufacturing.
- Fed policy expectations dominate: markets eye inflation data for signals of a dovish pivot.
- A softer Fed stance would weaken USD and strengthen yen, while persistent inflation would favor USD strength.
Forecast
- Pair remains in a bullish structure but vulnerable to U.S. data outcomes.
- Likely to stay rangebound between 146.70–148.30 until inflation data release.
- A break below 147.00 opens risk of deeper correction toward 146.20.
Key Levels
- Support: 147.09, 146.74
- Resistance: 147.54, 147.87, 148.26
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Current Drivers
- AUD supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth and resilient business conditions.
- RBA remains in easing mode with rates at 3.6%, but cautious on further cuts until new inflation data.
- China’s core CPI improved to 0.9%, offering a lifeline to Australian export prospects despite headline deflation.
- Risk appetite supported by weaker USD ahead of Fed decision.
Forecast
- AUD likely to remain supported as long as Chinese data improves.
- Break above 0.6620 opens path to 0.6660–0.6680.
- Downside limited unless U.S. data strongly boosts the dollar.
Key Levels
- Support: 0.6570, 0.6555
- Resistance: 0.6635, 0.6660
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Current Drivers
- CAD under pressure as Canada’s economy shows weak growth and job losses.
- Unemployment at 7.1% highlights domestic economic fragility.
- Market expects BoC rate cuts as core inflation moderates.
- Tariff concerns and weak domestic demand weigh heavily on CAD.
- U.S. dollar strength adds further pressure, keeping USD/CAD near highs.
Forecast
- USD/CAD biased higher unless strong oil recovery or surprise Canadian data boosts CAD.
- Break above 1.3860 confirms momentum toward 1.3925–1.3958.
- If U.S. inflation data comes weaker, CAD could gain temporary relief.
Key Levels
- Support: 1.3800, 1.3745
- Resistance: 1.3860, 1.3925, 1.3958
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Drivers
- Gold supported by global risk appetite and expectations of Fed easing.
- Lower U.S. PPI or CPI data could increase demand for gold as a hedge against dollar weakness.
- Persistently high U.S. inflation would cap gains, as real yields remain elevated.
- Investors monitoring geopolitical tensions and U.S. bond yields for additional direction.
Forecast
- Bullish bias remains intact as long as gold holds above $1900 region.
- A break higher could test $1950, while strong U.S. inflation risks sending prices back toward $1880.
Key Levels
- Support: 1905, 1890
- Resistance: 1940, 1955
📊 Summary Table: As of September 11, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral-Bullish | French political crisis, ECB stance, U.S. PPI | 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642 | 1.1756, 1.1786 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral | BoE cautious, UK inflation, U.S. data | 1.3545, 1.3485, 1.3449 | 1.3585 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish-Range | U.S. inflation, Fed policy, Japan politics | 147.09, 146.74 | 147.54, 147.87, 148.26 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | Strong GDP, China CPI, RBA policy | 0.6570, 0.6555 | 0.6635, 0.6660 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Bullish | Weak Canada data, BoC easing expectations | 1.3800, 1.3745 | 1.3860, 1.3925, 1.3958 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | Fed rate cut bets, inflation data, safe-haven demand | 1905, 1890 | 1940, 1955 |
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