The euro is holding firm despite political risks, supported by stronger data from France, while traders await the ECB meeting. Sterling remains influenced by dollar direction and domestic fiscal challenges, with sentiment shaped by shifting Bank of England expectations. The yen is strengthening as speculation grows over Federal Reserve easing and uncertainty lingers in Japanese politics. The Australian dollar benefits from resilient growth and improving conditions, though consumer confidence has slipped, and markets watch the RBA closely. The Canadian dollar struggles under weak employment figures and looming rate cut expectations, though oil prices provide some relief. Gold continues to soar to record highs, fueled by safe-haven demand, speculation on U.S. rate cuts, and geopolitical concerns.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Euro supported by stronger-than-expected French industrial output, though political uncertainty in France (confidence vote) clouds sentiment.
- ECB expected to keep rates unchanged, highlighting concerns about trade tensions and U.S. tariff threats.
- U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index may add volatility but unlikely to drive a trend.
- Broad dollar weakness remains the main driver of euro gains.
Market Sentiment
- Euro is consolidating near recent highs, with buyers defending key levels.
- Political instability in France may cap upside, while dollar weakness supports a bullish bias.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.1756, 1.1704, 1.1680, 1.1642
- Resistance: 1.1786, 1.1826
Forecast
- If euro holds above 1.1756, bullish continuation likely toward 1.1826.
- A drop below 1.1704 opens downside risk to 1.1642.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Sterling gains supported by weaker USD and relative yield advantage over U.S. assets.
- UK political risks remain, with tax debates, ministerial resignations, and overstated retail sales figures weighing on fiscal outlook.
- Market pricing for a BoE rate hike has fallen, reflecting economic headwinds.
Market Sentiment
- Pound is advancing toward liquidity-rich zones, but upside momentum could stall if political concerns intensify.
- Dollar moves remain more influential than UK domestic developments.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3549, 1.3449, 1.3398
- Resistance: 1.3585, 1.3640
Forecast
- A break above 1.3585 may trigger further bullish momentum to 1.3640.
- Weakness below 1.3549 risks a retracement toward 1.3449.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Drivers
- Yen strengthened as U.S. yields dropped on Fed rate cut expectations.
- Domestic backdrop: political uncertainty following resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba, adding a safe-haven bid.
- No U.S.-Japan trade deal intensifies risks for Japan’s economy, but yen remains supported by dollar weakness.
Market Sentiment
- USD/JPY is struggling near support zones; sellers remain active.
- Market focus stays on Fed policy and U.S. economic data.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 147.09, 146.74, 146.18, 145.61
- Resistance: 147.54, 147.87, 148.26
Forecast
- Sustained trading below 147.09 points to continuation toward 146.18–145.61.
- Only a rebound above 147.87 could shift momentum back to buyers.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Australia Q2 GDP beat expectations, supported by stronger demand.
- Business conditions improved, though consumer sentiment declined on inflation worries.
- RBA expected to keep rates steady in September but may cut later this year if inflation eases.
- Weak U.S. jobs data supports Aussie strength, but external risks (China slowdown, global growth) still loom.
Market Sentiment
- Aussie rally continues, now trading at six-week highs.
- Positioning suggests reduced bearish bias as traders unwind shorts.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 0.6579, 0.6559
- Resistance: 0.6612, 0.6632, 0.6650/60
Forecast
- Breakout above 0.6632 could extend rally toward 0.6650/60.
- If price slips below 0.6579, momentum may reverse to the downside.
🇺🇸/🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Key Drivers
- Canadian dollar under pressure from weak employment data (-60K jobs, higher unemployment).
- BoC widely expected to cut rates this month, adding to CAD downside risk.
- Oil prices providing only partial support to CAD.
- U.S. dollar weakness limits USD/CAD upside, creating a tug-of-war.
Market Sentiment
- CAD is the second-worst performing major in 2025, reflecting structural economic weakness.
- USD/CAD remains range-bound, awaiting U.S. inflation data.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3675–1.3686
- Resistance: 1.3850, 1.3925, 1.4018
Forecast
- Holding above 1.3800 could propel USD/CAD to 1.3850–1.3925.
- A break below 1.3750 may trigger a move toward 1.3680.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers
- Gold at all-time highs above $3,650 on Fed rate cut bets and safe-haven demand.
- U.S. inflation data (PPI, CPI) will be pivotal for near-term direction.
- Strong central bank purchases and geopolitical risks add to long-term bullish support.
- Some caution urged: risk of sharp correction if U.S. data surprises positively.
Market Sentiment
- Market remains heavily bullish, but stretched positioning could spark volatility.
- Demand supported by weakening USD and falling yields.
Support & Resistance
- Support: 3575, 3560, 3500, 3469, 3438
- Resistance: 3600, 3640, 3682, 3720
Forecast
- Break above 3640 could open path toward 3682–3720.
- Failure to hold 3575 risks correction toward 3500.
📊 Summary Table: As of September 10, 2025
| Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | ECB on hold, French politics, weak USD | 1.1756, 1.1704, 1.1642 | 1.1786, 1.1826 | Bullish above 1.1756, bearish below 1.1704 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | UK political risks, BoE expectations, USD weakness | 1.3549, 1.3449, 1.3398 | 1.3585, 1.3640 | Bullish toward 1.3640 if above 1.3585 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Fed cut bets, BOJ policy outlook, safe-haven yen | 147.09, 146.74, 146.18 | 147.54, 147.87, 148.26 | Bearish toward 146.18–145.61 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Strong GDP, consumer concerns, RBA steady | 0.6579, 0.6559 | 0.6612, 0.6632, 0.6650 | Bullish above 0.6632 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Weak jobs, BoC cuts likely, oil stabilizing | 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3680 | 1.3850, 1.3925, 1.4018 | Range-bound, bullish above 1.3800 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Fed cuts, safe-haven demand, central bank buying | 3575, 3560, 3500 | 3600, 3640, 3682, 3720 | Bullish toward 3682–3720 |
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