The EUR/USD shows a bullish trend as it tests key resistance levels, while the GBP/USD is facing selling pressure due to economic uncertainty. In contrast, the JPY weakened against the USD, driven by cautious sentiment from Japanese officials about interest rate hikes. The AUD has fallen amid anticipation of RBA minutes and market concerns about rate cuts. Gold remains in a consolidation phase, with mixed geopolitical signals influencing its movement, but the overall trend remains bullish amid global uncertainties.
EUR/USD:
Analysis:
- The euro has seen mixed signals due to uncertainty around the European Central Bank’s future monetary policy.
- As mentioned, Eurozone inflation figures and economic data will likely be crucial for any movement in the pair. The USD remains strong on the back of robust non-farm payroll data and expectations of continued rate hikes.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.0531, 1.0501, 1.0450
- Resistance: 1.0596, 1.0615, 1.0650
Forecast:
The EUR/USD remains bearish overall. With a firm USD driven by better-than-expected U.S. employment data, the pair could continue to test lower support levels. A potential short-term rally could occur if Eurozone inflation surprises on the upside or if the USD faces short-term corrections.
- Medium-term outlook: Bearish, with a potential drop towards 1.0500.
- Key scenario: A break below 1.0531 could open the door for further declines to the 1.0450 level.
GBP/USD:
Analysis:
- The GBP has been struggling due to dovish sentiment from the Bank of England (BoE), and weak economic growth. The pound’s movements could further depend on U.K. inflation data and BoE’s policy stance.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.2102, 1.2063, 1.2010
- Resistance: 1.2201, 1.2253, 1.2300
Forecast:
The outlook for the GBP remains negative, as the combination of high inflation and low economic growth weakens the currency. Unless there is a significant shift in the BoE’s monetary stance, the GBP/USD pair could continue downward, testing lower support levels.
- Medium-term outlook: Bearish, likely to reach 1.2060 in the near term.
- Key scenario: A break below 1.2100 would likely signal a deeper drop towards 1.2010.
USD/JPY:
Analysis:
- The USD/JPY pair has been bullish, driven by the U.S. dollar’s strength and Japan’s cautious stance on further monetary tightening. The Bank of Japan remains dovish, with key policymakers suggesting restraint in rate hikes.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 146.87, 146.02, 144.20
- Resistance: 149.37, 151.26
Forecast:
The bullish trend is likely to continue as long as the U.S. dollar remains strong. However, the MACD divergence indicates a potential corrective movement, especially if the USD weakens slightly or Japan’s economic outlook improves.
- Medium-term outlook: Bullish, but with potential for a minor correction.
- Key scenario: A break above 149.37 will likely push the pair toward the 151.26 level, while a break below 146.87 could lead to a corrective move to 146.02.
AUD/USD:
Analysis:
- The Australian dollar has been under pressure, with AUD/USD down for the month amid a stronger U.S. dollar and weak commodity prices. The RBA’s dovish stance, coupled with China’s economic concerns, has also weighed on the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 0.6760, 0.6745, 0.6680
- Resistance: 0.6811, 0.6835, 0.6933
Forecast:
The AUD/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure, especially if the RBA minutes hint at dovish policy actions or if the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. While the pair may see some upward movement in the short term, the overall trend remains bearish.
- Medium-term outlook: Bearish, with potential testing of support at 0.6680.
- Key scenario: A break below 0.6745 could accelerate the downward move toward 0.6680.
XAU/USD (Gold):
Analysis:
- Gold has been consolidating in a range, facing pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and bullish equity markets. Despite geopolitical risks, such as the conflict in the Middle East, gold has not seen significant safe-haven inflows, indicating that risk appetite remains strong.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 2632, 2623, 2569
- Resistance: 2669, 2700, 2750
Forecast:
The bullish technical setup indicates that the precious metal could break out of its consolidation zone if risk aversion picks up or if the dollar weakens. For now, the price is hovering near important support levels, and any break lower could trigger technical selling.
- Medium-term outlook: Bullish, but consolidation could continue in the near term.
- Key scenario: A break above 2669 could push the price towards the psychological level of 2700. Conversely, a break below 2623 could lead to a decline towards 2569.
General Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) may see some volatility around key US economic releases, but its medium-term trend remains bullish, especially with the ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East acting as a potential catalyst for higher safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to remain under pressure due to a stronger US Dollar and weak regional economic growth. The Euro and Pound may recover slightly but will face challenges without strong fundamental support.
USD/JPY is expected to stay bullish, but a short-term pullback is possible given the overbought conditions and potential intervention from Japanese authorities if the Yen weakens too much.
AUD/USD will closely follow RBA developments, and any signs of dovishness could push the pair lower, with the US Dollar’s strength also acting as a headwind.
