The euro climbed on German GDP data beating expectations, indicating mild growth and delaying a technical recession, though eurozone inflation pressures are nudging the ECB toward a rate cut in December. The British pound remained constrained as markets await the UK budget, with downward movement influenced by U.S. economic indicators. The yen held steady with the Bank of Japan expected to leave rates unchanged amid political uncertainty, while hints of future intervention could surface if currency pressures persist. The Australian dollar rose on lower inflation, easing rate cut pressures. Gold reached new highs amid risk-averse sentiment, supported by softer U.S. job data.
EUR/USD Analysis and Forecast
- Current Status: EUR/USD rose by 0.20% to 1.0839 as Germany’s GDP exceeded expectations with a 0.2% Q3 gain, dodging a technical recession. However, Germany’s year-over-year GDP dipped by 0.2%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the Eurozone.
- Economic Outlook: The Eurozone’s inflation trajectory remains uncertain, with German inflation projected to rise slightly to 1.8% in October. A potential ECB rate cut in December looms, contingent on upcoming inflation data.
- Technical Levels:
- Support: 1.0818, 1.0787, 1.0773
- Resistance: 1.0835, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979
- Forecast: EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend but may test resistance at 1.0835 and 1.0868. A break above 1.0871 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below 1.0787 would suggest further downside potential toward 1.0773.
GBP/USD Analysis and Forecast
- Current Status: GBP/USD has risen by 0.28% to 1.3008. The pound has been volatile ahead of the UK’s upcoming budget, with potential sell-off risks if the data supports USD strength.
- Economic Outlook: Chancellor Reeves’ budget may affect GBP sentiment, with attention on balancing low growth against rising fiscal risks.
- Technical Levels:
- Support: 1.3003, 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2940, 1.2918
- Resistance: 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171
- Forecast: GBP/USD shows a bearish outlook. A dip below 1.3003 could trigger a decline toward 1.2979, while consolidation above 1.3032 might signal a short-term bullish reversal.
USD/JPY Analysis and Forecast
- Current Status: USD/JPY trades at 153.25, slightly down by 0.07%. The BoJ’s forthcoming decision, expected to maintain rates, and Japan’s political uncertainties keep the yen under pressure.
- Economic Outlook: Given the BoJ’s cautious stance, the yen’s strength largely depends on the USD’s performance and U.S. economic data.
- Technical Levels:
- Support: 153.17, 152.70, 151.64
- Resistance: 153.86, 154.45, 154.93
- Forecast: USD/JPY has a bullish outlook, but selling pressure may resume if support at 153.17 breaks. A move above 154.45 could propel the pair toward higher resistance levels.
AUD/USD Analysis and Forecast
- Current Status: AUD/USD is trading at 0.6577, up 0.26%, after Australian inflation dropped below 3% in Q3, bolstering the Reserve Bank’s confidence to hold rates.
- Economic Outlook: The market expects the RBA to hold rates, as a strong labor market and elevated services inflation counteract the downward trend in headline inflation.
- Technical Levels:
- Support: 0.6539, 0.6517, 0.6482
- Resistance: 0.6567, 0.6589, 0.6607
- Forecast: The AUD/USD trend is bearish but could test resistance at 0.6567 or 0.6589. A break below 0.6539 would signal potential for further downside toward 0.6482.
XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis and Forecast
- Current Status: XAU/USD hit $2,780, gaining on haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and falling U.S. yields.
- Economic Outlook: The Fed’s rate path and U.S. economic data will influence gold’s movement, with potential for rate cuts lending additional support to gold.
- Technical Levels:
- Support: 2,750, 2,730, 2,715, 2,700
- Resistance: 2,783, 2,785, 2,800
- Forecast: Gold’s bullish trend targets $2,800 if support above 2,750 holds. Any pullback may find initial support around 2,730, with a drop below 2,700 signaling a potential bearish shift.
Summary Forecast:
Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish on strong fundamentals, with geopolitical risks providing support.
EUR/USD: Slight bullish potential if resistance is broken; otherwise, bearish.
GBP/USD: Bearish, with potential for reversal if it consolidates above resistance.
USD/JPY: Bullish, but sensitive to BoJ and U.S. data outcomes.
AUD/USD: Bearish within a narrow channel; may decline further.
