The euro remains under pressure as weak inflation, rising unemployment, and sluggish growth weigh on sentiment, while the pound holds firmer on a softer dollar and shifting policy debates at home. The yen gains support from safe-haven demand and speculation that the Bank of Japan may edge toward policy tightening, while the franc steadies after muted inflation data with traders cautious on Swiss policy signals. Meanwhile, gold trades near record highs as investors seek safety amid US political gridlock, labor market weakness, and expectations of easier monetary policy ahead, keeping demand strong despite short-term corrections.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals & Drivers
- Euro faced pressure as Eurozone unemployment ticked higher and inflation accelerated above the ECB’s target.
- ECB policymakers remain cautious, with markets expecting no rate cut until at least December when updated projections are due.
- Political and trade risks persist, particularly with US tariff measures that could reignite price pressures in Europe.
- US dollar remains sensitive to government shutdown uncertainty, weaker private-sector jobs data, and upcoming US labor indicators.
Short-Term Outlook
- Traders are closely watching US jobless claims and factory orders. Weak US data would support euro strength, while strong figures would renew dollar demand.
- Intraday consolidation continues between 1.1709–1.1754, with sellers holding short-term advantage.
Support levels: 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634
Resistance levels: 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819
Forecast: Bias remains downward unless US data disappoints. Break below 1.1709 opens path toward 1.1661. Upside recovery possible above 1.1819.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals & Drivers
- Pound benefitted from a weaker dollar and political expectations around UK fiscal policy shifts, including speculation over welfare reforms and new taxes.
- Bank of England policymakers remain divided: some warn of sticky inflation, others of risks from prolonged tight policy. No cut is expected until 2026.
- US shutdown uncertainty and weak labor market data lend near-term support, but strong US releases could reverse gains.
Short-Term Outlook
- GBP/USD trades near 1.3463 support, with sellers defending moves higher.
- Market focus is on US labor and manufacturing data plus Fed commentary.
Support levels: 1.3463, 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
Resistance levels: 1.3522, 1.3585
Forecast: Bearish bias persists while below 1.3522. If price breaks above 1.3532 and consolidates, bulls may regain control.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Fundamentals & Drivers
- Yen strengthened on safe-haven demand amid US political gridlock and weaker dollar sentiment.
- Market speculation grows that the Bank of Japan could move toward policy normalization, with a 40% chance of a hike priced in for this month.
- US shutdown delays release of critical data (like NFP), increasing uncertainty.
Short-Term Outlook
- The pair has shifted into a downward trend after breaking below key levels, trading near 147.
- Market positioning favors yen strength unless US data significantly surprises to the upside.
Support levels: 146.25, 146.11
Resistance levels: 147.50, 148.06, 148.47, 148.88, 150.00
Forecast: Bias is bearish while under 147.50. Break below 146.25 opens path toward 146.11. Only a move above 148.85 would revive bullish momentum.
🇺🇸/🇨🇭 USD/CHF Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc
Fundamentals & Drivers
- Swiss inflation remained flat at 0.2%, softer than expected, limiting pressure on SNB to tighten policy further.
- SNB maintains readiness to cut if needed, but moderate inflation supports a wait-and-see stance.
- US dollar weakness from softer data and shutdown uncertainty capped USD/CHF upside.
Short-Term Outlook
- Pair trades with a bearish tone, consolidating near 0.7960.
- Fed expectations (possible cuts before year-end) keep dollar under pressure, limiting gains.
Support levels: 0.7958, 0.7940, 0.7900
Resistance levels: 0.7975, 0.8000
Forecast: Bearish bias prevails; sustained break below 0.7958 targets 0.7940 and 0.7900. Upside capped below 0.8000.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals & Drivers
- Gold trades near record highs as safe-haven demand remains elevated amid the US shutdown and weak private-sector jobs data.
- Expectations for Fed rate cuts this year reinforce bullish sentiment.
- Political standoff in Washington increases uncertainty, adding further support.
Short-Term Outlook
- Gold faces resistance near 3,870–3,895.
- A pullback toward 3,840–3,750 is possible if sellers dominate, but sustained moves above 3,870 reopen path to 3,906.
Support levels: 3,840, 3,750
Resistance levels: 3,870, 3,895, 3,906
Forecast: Bullish bias persists as long as gold holds above 3,840. Break below 3,750 risks deeper correction.
📊 Summary Table: As of October 3, 2025
| Asset | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Bias / Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | ECB cautious, Euro inflation, US shutdown | 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634 | 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819 | Bearish while below 1.1754, bullish only above 1.1819 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | BoE divided, UK fiscal policy, US data | 1.3463, 1.3415, 1.3388 | 1.3522, 1.3585 | Bearish bias, bullish only above 1.3532 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | BoJ normalization risk, US shutdown | 146.25, 146.11 | 147.50, 148.06, 148.85 | Bearish under 147.50, bullish only above 148.85 |
| 🇨🇭 USD/CHF | Swiss low inflation, SNB cautious, weak USD | 0.7958, 0.7940, 0.7900 | 0.7975, 0.8000 | Bearish bias, capped below 0.8000 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Safe-haven demand, Fed cuts, US shutdown | 3,840, 3,750 | 3,870, 3,895, 3,906 | Bullish while above 3,840, correction risk below 3,750 |
