The euro found support from steady labor conditions in Germany, with confidence readings showing resilience, while the pound faced headwinds after mixed growth signals and cautious fiscal tones. The yen weakened as Japan’s economy showed signs of slowing, with retail sales and output contracting, leaving traders alert to further Bank of Japan signals. The Australian dollar held firm after the central bank kept policy steady, supported by solid growth and sticky inflation despite a softer labor market. Gold surged to new highs as investors sought safety amid political and economic uncertainty, with the weaker dollar boosting demand.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- The euro found support after Germany’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%, signaling labor market resilience.
- Eurozone business confidence weakened slightly, but consumer confidence improved, reducing fears of deeper recession.
- US data (Consumer Confidence and JOLTS report) remains a critical short-term driver. Weak readings could undermine the dollar.
- Political risks in the US, including government shutdown uncertainty, are weighing on dollar sentiment.
Market Outlook
- The euro shows relative strength, but upside momentum is capped by strong resistance.
- A break above near-term resistance could open a bullish extension, but downside pressure may return if US data surprises positively.
Support Levels: 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634
Resistance Levels: 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819
Forecast: EUR/USD likely to test 1.1754 resistance; a sustained break could extend gains to 1.1786. If U.S. data strengthens, euro may slip back toward 1.1709.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- UK GDP met expectations but fell short of stronger market hopes, leading to muted reaction.
- Inflation remains elevated, nearly double the BoE’s target, which keeps policy concerns in focus.
- Political backdrop: Shadow Chancellor Reeves stressed fiscal discipline, but investors await clarity in November’s budget.
- Dollar weakness tied to US political risks provides some cushion for the pound.
Market Outlook
- The pound remains capped below major resistance, with downside risk if US data outperforms.
- Sustained weakness in US releases could allow GBP to retest higher resistance.
Support Levels: 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
Resistance Levels: 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532
Forecast: GBP/USD is consolidating below 1.3463; a breakout above this level opens room toward 1.3491, while a rejection risks a move back toward 1.3388.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors
- The yen weakened after BoJ policymakers showed mixed views on rate hikes, with some cautious about growth impacts.
- Japanese retail sales fell unexpectedly, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- The US dollar remains pressured by lower yields and political risks, which could support further yen recovery.
- A possible BoJ shift toward gradual tightening remains a medium-term risk for USD/JPY bulls.
Market Outlook
- The pair broke below 148.47, signaling near-term downside momentum.
- Support at 147.95 will be key — a sustained break may confirm a deeper correction.
Support Levels: 147.95, 147.50
Resistance Levels: 148.47, 148.88, 150.00, 150.73
Forecast: USD/JPY consolidating below 148.47; if sustained, a decline toward 147.95 is possible. If the pair rebounds, upside toward 148.88–150.00 remains open.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, as expected, but retained a cautious stance, leaving the door open for future cuts.
- Inflation rose to 3.0%, largely from temporary factors, yet concerns remain about underlying price pressures.
- Labor market softened in August, but GDP growth exceeded expectations, reinforcing resilience.
- Market focus is now on Q3 CPI data in October and global USD moves tied to government shutdown risks.
Market Outlook
- The Aussie dollar benefits from risk-on sentiment and weaker USD conditions.
- Immediate upside targets include 0.6684, with further room to 0.6750 if momentum continues.
Support Levels: 0.6542, 0.6522, 0.6500
Resistance Levels: 0.6684, 0.6750, 0.7000
Forecast: AUD/USD strengthened above 0.6600 and may target 0.6684 next; a break higher could push toward 0.6750. Downside limited while above 0.6542.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors
- Gold surged to record highs as investors sought safety amid US government shutdown fears.
- Lower US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar boosted demand.
- Continued central bank buying supports the structural bullish case for gold.
- Technical momentum remains strong, with new highs encouraging further inflows.
Market Outlook
- Break above 3850 has reinforced bullish trend, with potential toward 3900 and beyond.
- Risks include potential rebound in dollar if US political uncertainty resolves.
Support Levels: 3800, 3760, 3718
Resistance Levels: 3850, 3900, 3936, 4008
Forecast: Gold remains in a bullish trend above 3850; potential to extend toward 3900 and 3936. Only a break below 3800 would signal deeper correction risk.
📊 Summary Table: As of October 1, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mildly Bullish | 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634 | 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819 | German labor strength, US data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral/Bearish | 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315 | 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532 | UK growth concerns, US releases |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bearish short-term | 147.95, 147.50 | 148.47, 148.88, 150.00, 150.73 | BoJ stance, US yields |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | 0.6542, 0.6522, 0.6500 | 0.6684, 0.6750, 0.7000 | RBA hold, inflation risks, USD weakness |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Strongly Bullish | 3800, 3760, 3718 | 3850, 3900, 3936, 4008 | Safe-haven demand, US shutdown risk |
