The euro steadied after weak retail sales while traders awaited Fed comments that could determine the dollar’s next move. The pound showed resilience despite poor construction data as focus remained on the Bank of England’s cautious stance. The yen gained modestly on solid wage growth, fueling expectations that Japan may gradually tighten policy. Gold held firm amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, maintaining its appeal as a safe haven. Bitcoin stabilized after a broad sell-off, with long-term holders taking profits and new buyers entering, signaling ongoing consolidation before a potential rebound.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Overview:
- The euro trades near a three-month low after weaker Eurozone retail sales and wage data, indicating subdued consumer activity and easing inflation pressure.
- The U.S. dollar strengthened as markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates due to robust employment and services data.
- FOMC members’ upcoming remarks (Barr, Williams, Waller) could clarify the Fed’s stance, influencing short-term dollar momentum.
Key Factors:
- Bearish drivers: Hawkish Fed outlook, weak Eurozone data.
- Bullish drivers: Potential dovish FOMC remarks, signs of eurozone stabilization in Q4.
- Market sentiment: Neutral to bearish, with traders awaiting U.S. policy signals.
Support levels: 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
Resistance levels: 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1667
Forecast: EUR/USD likely to remain range-bound between 1.1460–1.1570; upside potential limited unless Fed tones down hawkish rhetoric.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Overview:
- The pound held above 1.30 despite disappointing construction PMI data, with traders focused on the Bank of England’s future policy direction.
- Investors anticipate that upcoming fiscal tightening and a slowing labor market may support future rate cuts.
- Attention remains on U.S. monetary policy commentary for near-term volatility.
Key Factors:
- Bearish drivers: Weak U.K. construction sector, slowing wage growth, cautious BoE tone.
- Bullish drivers: Improved service sector activity and business confidence.
- Market sentiment: Mildly bearish; risk of short-term pullback before potential stabilization.
Support levels: 1.3013
Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3162, 1.3216, 1.3291, 1.3365
Forecast: GBP/USD may trade between 1.3010–1.3160; rebound possible if BoE signals gradual easing rather than sharp cuts.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Overview:
- The yen strengthened slightly above 154 per dollar after steady wage growth data fueled expectations of future Bank of Japan tightening.
- However, inflation remains above wage gains, limiting purchasing power and constraining the yen’s strength.
- U.S. dollar demand remains resilient, supported by hawkish Fed officials and robust employment data.
Key Factors:
- Bearish for JPY: Fed’s steady policy stance, rising U.S. yields.
- Bullish for JPY: Higher wage growth expectations, potential BoJ tightening in 2026.
- Market sentiment: Cautiously bullish USD bias; yen recovery limited unless BoJ shifts tone aggressively.
Support levels: 153.75, 153.15, 150.87
Resistance levels: 154.29, 156.54
Forecast: USD/JPY likely to trade within 153.50–154.50; breakout above 154.30 could open the path toward 156.00.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Overview:
- Gold stabilized near $3,975 per ounce, recovering from early-week losses amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks.
- Safe-haven demand remains strong due to tensions in Eastern Europe and U.S. political uncertainty.
- Hawkish Fed sentiment limits upside potential, as stronger U.S. data reduces the urgency for rate cuts.
Key Factors:
- Bullish drivers: Global geopolitical instability, softer dollar due to shutdown, renewed safe-haven flows.
- Bearish drivers: Strong U.S. economic indicators, reduced expectations for Fed easing.
- Market sentiment: Neutral to bullish; buyers are defending the $3,950 area.
Support levels: 3930, 3896, 3867
Resistance levels: 3975, 4046, 4137, 4162
Forecast: Gold likely to trade between 3930–4046; a break above 4046 could push toward 4130–4160 range, while below 3890 would revive selling pressure.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Current Overview:
- Bitcoin trades around $103,000 after recovering from recent lows near $98,400.
- Institutional outflows from spot ETFs persist for a sixth day, reflecting cautious sentiment among long-term investors.
- Despite short-term weakness, redistribution among long-term holders signals a maturing consolidation phase.
Key Factors:
- Bullish drivers: Long-term accumulation, optimism on crypto adoption, potential policy easing in 2026.
- Bearish drivers: ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, high U.S. yields reducing risk appetite.
- Market sentiment: Cautiously optimistic; medium-term bullish structure intact despite short-term corrections.
Support levels: 99,400, 96,875, 95,800
Resistance levels: 105,300, 108,800, 111,300, 113,500
Forecast: Bitcoin expected to consolidate between 99,000–108,000; sustained move above 108,800 may confirm bullish recovery toward 111,000–113,500.
📊 Summary Table: As of November 7, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Neutral-Bearish | Fed hawkish tone, weak Eurozone data | 1.1497 / 1.1462 / 1.1392 | 1.1547 / 1.1579 / 1.1605 | 1.1460 – 1.1570 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Mildly Bearish | BoE cautious stance, weak PMI | 1.3013 | 1.3080 / 1.3162 / 1.3216 | 1.3010 – 1.3160 |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bullish Bias | Higher U.S. yields, BoJ gradual policy shift | 153.75 / 153.15 / 150.87 | 154.29 / 156.54 | 153.50 – 154.50 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Neutral-Bullish | Safe-haven demand, U.S. shutdown, strong dollar | 3930 / 3896 / 3867 | 3975 / 4046 / 4137 / 4162 | 3930 – 4046 |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Cautiously Bullish | ETF outflows, macro risks, long-term accumulation | 99,400 / 96,875 / 95,800 | 105,300 / 108,800 / 111,300 | 99,000 – 108,000 |
