The euro weakened slightly despite stable Eurozone data and ECB confidence, reflecting investor caution ahead of key U.S. figures. The pound remained pressured by soft UK growth and expectations of further policy easing, while political concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. The yen held near recent lows as the Bank of Japan maintained its cautious stance, leaving markets sensitive to any Fed commentary. The Australian dollar steadied before the RBA meeting, with traders expecting a neutral tone amid rising inflation and mixed labor signals. Gold hovered near key levels after a recent pullback, supported by long-term demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

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🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Euro Faces Pressure Amid U.S. Manufacturing Data

• Market Context:
  The euro weakened as Eurozone manufacturing PMI matched forecasts but revealed internal weakness in new orders despite improving employment. The ECB maintained a neutral policy stance after multiple rate cuts earlier this year, with Christine Lagarde emphasizing no imminent easing.
  Meanwhile, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and FOMC speeches from Daly and Cook remain in focus, likely to shape short-term direction through sentiment on inflation and growth.
• Key Drivers:
  • Steady Eurozone inflation near the ECB’s 2% target supports stability.
  • Stronger U.S. data could boost the dollar; weaker data may favor the euro.
  • ECB policy pause keeps the euro sensitive to U.S. economic indicators.
• Market Outlook:
  The euro’s near-term outlook remains bearish due to weaker demand data. Any recovery would likely be corrective unless the dollar weakens materially.
• Support Levels: 1.1515, 1.1477
• Resistance Levels: 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634

Forecast:
EUR/USD is expected to remain under mild selling pressure, with potential rebounds limited near 1.1579. Sustained trade below 1.1515 could open further downside to 1.1470.

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🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar

Pound Faces Fiscal and Policy Uncertainty

• Market Context:
  The pound trades near 1.3150 after slightly better UK manufacturing data. However, concerns persist over slower productivity and budget-related fiscal tightening.
  Expectations for possible Bank of England rate cuts in early 2026 continue to weigh on the currency.
• Key Drivers:
  • Market concerns about UK fiscal deficits and reduced productivity.
  • Bank of England’s cautious tone amid soft inflation.
  • U.S. dollar strength tied to ISM and FOMC comments.
• Market Outlook:
  The pair remains under pressure, consolidating in a flat pattern. Only a clear break above 1.3174 could trigger mild recovery, while renewed selling could occur near that level.
• Support Levels: 1.3086, 1.3090
• Resistance Levels: 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291

Forecast:
GBP/USD is expected to trade sideways with bearish bias. A break below 1.3086 would confirm a deeper correction toward 1.3050. Any upside move remains capped unless the Fed signals dovishness.

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🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Yen Remains Weak Under BoJ’s Dovish Stance

• Market Context:
  The yen hovers near 154 as Japan’s public holiday limits trading activity. The Bank of Japan’s continued reluctance to raise interest rates and comments about economic risks sustain downward pressure on the yen.
  Investors await FOMC remarks to gauge the U.S. policy path.
• Key Drivers:
  • BoJ’s ultra-loose policy contrasts sharply with Fed’s tightening bias.
  • Yen remains the preferred funding currency amid low yield differentials.
  • Japanese authorities’ verbal interventions have limited market impact.
• Market Outlook:
  USD/JPY remains within a bullish structure despite low volatility. Momentum could resume toward 154.80 if U.S. data surprise positively.
• Support Levels: 153.26, 151.51, 150.87
• Resistance Levels: 154.80, 155.20

Forecast:
USD/JPY is expected to stay range-bound, with a bullish tilt. A move above 154.80 could extend gains toward 155.20. A drop below 153.20 could signal a deeper pullback.

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🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar

Cautious Tone Ahead of RBA Meeting

• Market Context:
  The RBA is expected to maintain its policy stance in its November meeting, signaling patience amid mixed data. Inflation has accelerated, but labor market softness tempers hawkish expectations.
  The Australian dollar faces dual forces: domestic inflationary pressures supporting it, and global dollar strength limiting its advance.
• Key Drivers:
  • Rising inflation keeps RBA in wait-and-see mode.
  • Higher unemployment and participation rate signal mild labor market stress.
  • Global dollar trends dominate short-term movements.
• Market Outlook:
  The pair remains uncertain, oscillating near mid-range levels. Price action suggests limited upside potential, with any rallies likely to fade.
• Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6460
• Resistance Levels: 0.6580, 0.6625, 0.6670

Forecast:
AUD/USD is expected to consolidate ahead of the RBA decision. A hawkish tone may push the pair to 0.6620, but sustained gains are unlikely amid global dollar demand.

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🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar

Consolidation Near $4,000 Amid Fed and Trade Developments

• Market Context:
  Gold holds near $4,000 after easing from recent highs as risk appetite improves following the U.S.-China trade agreement extension.
  Despite short-term corrections, long-term sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Key Drivers:
  • Central banks continue significant gold accumulation, bolstering long-term demand.
  • Easing expectations of Fed rate cuts cap short-term upside.
  • Global geopolitical risks and inflation fears sustain long-term bullish bias.
• Market Outlook:
  Gold may remain range-bound short term but retains strong structural support for a longer-term rally. Price could dip toward $3,900 before resuming upward momentum.
• Support Levels: 3930, 3896, 3867
• Resistance Levels: 4050, 4137, 4162, 4184

Forecast:
Gold is expected to consolidate within $3,900–$4,050 in the near term. A break above $4,137 could reignite a bullish continuation toward $4,180. Long-term outlook remains positive.

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📊 Summary Table: As of November 4, 2025

Asset	Bias	Key Drivers	Support Levels	Resistance Levels	Short-Term Forecast
🇪🇺 EUR/USD	Bearish	ECB pause, U.S. ISM data	1.1515, 1.1477	1.1547, 1.1579	Consolidation below 1.1579; risk of further decline
🇬🇧 GBP/USD	Bearish	Fiscal risk, BoE easing bets	1.3086, 1.3090	1.3174, 1.3216	Range trade with downside bias
🇺🇸 USD/JPY	Bullish	BoJ dovishness, U.S. yield support	153.26, 151.51	154.80, 155.20	Bullish momentum likely to resume
🇦🇺 AUD/USD	Neutral to Bearish	RBA policy, inflation vs. jobs	0.6500, 0.6460	0.6580, 0.6625	Consolidation before RBA; limited upside
🪙 XAU/USD	Neutral (Short-term) / Bullish (Long-term)	Central bank demand, U.S. policy	3930, 3896	4050, 4137	Range-bound near $4,000; upside above $4,137