The euro gained strength as optimism grew over political stability and improving regional data, with traders awaiting key inflation and industrial output updates to gauge further momentum. The pound steadied after labor market softness and cautious remarks from policymakers hinted at a gradual policy shift, with attention fixed on upcoming growth figures. The yen continued to weaken amid expanding fiscal plans and a persistent gap in global interest rates, keeping investors wary of further depreciation. Gold remained resilient, supported by softer U.S. data and growing market conviction that monetary easing is approaching, as investors sought value preservation amid ongoing global uncertainty.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Euro Strengthens amid U.S. Political Uncertainty
- The euro extended gains against the dollar, reaching its highest levels in nearly two weeks as optimism grew around a resolution to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
- The weaker U.S. dollar remains the dominant driver as traders anticipate a rebound in U.S. economic data once government operations resume.
- The European Central Bank’s recent comments indicated satisfaction with current interest rate levels, dampening speculation of near-term policy adjustments.
- However, the German ZEW sentiment index unexpectedly fell, signaling persistent fragility in business confidence and limiting upward momentum.
- Key economic releases today — Germany’s inflation and Italy’s industrial production — could determine intraday direction. A positive surprise may extend euro gains, while weak results could trigger corrective movement.
- Support levels: 1.1577, 1.1542, 1.1520
- Resistance levels: 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667
- Outlook: A mixed outlook with moderate bullish bias. Sustained trading above 1.1605 may open room toward 1.1660, while a drop below 1.1570 would reintroduce downside risk toward 1.1540.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Pound Pressured by Soft Labor Data and BoE Uncertainty
- The British pound faced renewed weakness after disappointing employment data showed slower wage growth and rising joblessness.
- Despite initial selling, the pair stabilized near the 1.31 zone due to general dollar softness.
- Market participants await comments from BoE policymaker Huw Pill, whose tone could define short-term sentiment:
- Hawkish remarks favor continued inflation vigilance, potentially supporting the pound.
- Dovish hints about easing or accommodating slower growth could weigh on the currency.
- The market is also anticipating Thursday’s GDP data, which will clarify whether the U.K. economy is nearing stagnation or mild recovery.
- Technical patterns show a broad consolidation with no clear short-term breakout, though range trading remains likely.
- Support levels: 1.3137, 1.3109, 1.3072
- Resistance levels: 1.3162, 1.3216, 1.3247
- Outlook: Neutral-to-bearish. As long as price remains below 1.3216, momentum favors consolidation or limited downside. A confirmed close above 1.3247 would mark a potential recovery phase.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Yen Weakens as Japan Signals Continued Loose Policy
- The Japanese yen depreciated again amid renewed focus on domestic fiscal expansion and dovish monetary signals.
- Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of a new, more flexible fiscal target reinforced expectations that stimulus measures will remain in place.
- Investors interpreted the plan as reducing the likelihood of any imminent rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
- Despite Japan’s stronger machinery orders, the data had little market impact as broader policy sentiment overshadowed it.
- The interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. remains wide, maintaining upward pressure on the pair.
- Technically, USD/JPY remains in a bullish structure, with key support holding firm and resistance levels now being tested.
- Support levels: 154.36, 153.58, 153.15
- Resistance levels: 154.79, 156.54
- Outlook: Bullish continuation favored above 154.79; a break of 156.00 could push the pair toward new highs. Only a sustained move below 153.15 would signal a possible reversal.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Gold Holds Gains as U.S. Data Weakens and Rate-Cut Bets Rise
- Gold prices consolidated near recent highs around $4,100 per ounce, supported by mounting expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
- Weaker U.S. labor and consumer sentiment data suggest a cooling economy, pushing investors toward tangible assets.
- The prolonged government shutdown has amplified risk aversion and reduced confidence in near-term U.S. growth prospects.
- The market now sees a nearly two-thirds probability of a Fed rate reduction before year-end, helping to maintain gold’s upward trajectory.
- Investor psychology continues to favor metals as political uncertainty and fiscal instability remain unresolved.
- Technical indicators show momentum favoring continuation toward the $4,162–$4,184 resistance area, provided support near $4,100 holds.
- Support levels: 4100, 4083, 4046, 4019
- Resistance levels: 4162, 4184
- Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact. If prices close above 4150, further gains toward 4175–4180 are likely. A decline below 4070 would weaken the upside scenario.
📊 Summary Table: As of November 13, 2025
| Asset | Current Bias | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mildly Bullish | U.S. political progress, German & Italian data, ECB tone | 1.1577 / 1.1542 | 1.1605 / 1.1667 | Potential rebound toward 1.1660 if EU data firm |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral to Bearish | UK labor softness, BoE speech, GDP expectations | 1.3137 / 1.3109 | 1.3216 / 1.3247 | Range-bound; risk of dip before recovery |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bullish | Japan fiscal expansion, BoJ dovish stance | 154.36 / 153.15 | 154.79 / 156.54 | Uptrend may extend if above 154.79 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | Fed rate-cut bets, weak US data, political tension | 4100 / 4083 | 4162 / 4184 | Momentum strong toward 4175–4180 range |
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