Global markets continue to navigate a landscape defined by diverging central bank policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. The U.S. dollar, supported by strong labor market data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, remains a dominant force across FX markets. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand for gold and alternative assets like Bitcoin has risen due to rising inflation concerns, persistent trade disputes, and increasing institutional crypto engagement.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Diverging Policies Weigh on the Euro
The euro remains under pressure, unable to capitalize on modestly positive European data such as stronger-than-expected German industrial production. The broader narrative is shaped by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold and fears of policy divergence between the U.S. and Eurozone. The European Central Bank remains cautious amid mixed signals in the euro area’s inflation and growth indicators, while the Fed maintains its restrictive policy posture.
Eurozone retail sales recently declined for the first time in five months, adding to the bearish tilt. Despite a brief bounce supported by technical buying, EUR/USD lacks sustained bullish momentum, largely due to the Fed’s influence and the dollar’s safe-haven appeal in light of unresolved U.S.-EU trade tensions.
Forecast: The pair is likely to remain range-bound to bearish, with downward risks if upcoming U.S. labor market and inflation data outpaces Eurozone indicators.
Support levels: 1.1297, 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
Resistance levels: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572
🔍 Outlook: A breakdown below 1.1297 may accelerate a move toward 1.1246. If 1.1400 is breached and sustained, a recovery to 1.1440 becomes possible, but such a move would require a significant shift in sentiment or weak U.S. data.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
All Eyes on the Bank of England
The British pound has been volatile following the Bank of England’s rate cut from 4.5% to 4.25%, a widely expected move aimed at addressing economic softness and easing inflation pressures. However, the market’s reaction suggests that investors are pricing in further cuts ahead — up to four by year-end — indicating a broadly dovish outlook.
Speculation over a UK-U.S. trade agreement has temporarily buoyed the pound, but momentum lacks conviction amid weak volume and cautious sentiment. The pound’s fate now hinges heavily on forward guidance from BoE officials and whether the central bank signals a pause or continuation of rate cuts.
Forecast: GBP/USD could face downside pressure unless BoE sentiment turns more balanced. With the Fed showing no urgency to cut, the policy divergence may cap sterling’s gains.
Support levels: 1.3286, 1.3246, 1.3121
Resistance levels: 1.3352, 1.3402, 1.3434
🔍 Outlook: A drop below 1.3286 may lead to deeper losses toward 1.3246. A move above 1.3352 would open the path to 1.3402, but this would likely require a less dovish tone from the BoE or weaker-than-expected U.S. data.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Yen Weakness Persists Amid Fed-BoJ Divergence
The Japanese yen remains under selling pressure as the Bank of Japan cautiously considers further rate hikes, but with clear hesitation due to external risks and global uncertainty. In contrast, the Fed’s steady stance has bolstered the dollar, fueling a bullish bias in USD/JPY.
The yen’s weakness is structurally tied to Japan’s ongoing low-rate environment and sluggish inflation trends, which continue to justify ultra-loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims and productivity data may add short-term volatility, but the broader uptrend favors further dollar appreciation unless the BoJ signals a shift.
Forecast: USD/JPY is expected to remain on an upward trajectory unless there is a meaningful policy surprise from the BoJ or a collapse in U.S. economic indicators.
Support levels: 143.00, 142.50, 141.96, 140.18, 139.59
Resistance levels: 144.05, 144.42, 145.08, 147.13
🔍 Outlook: As long as the price remains above 144.05 and consolidates, a move to 145.08 and 147.13 becomes increasingly likely. A break below 141.96 would signal the potential for deeper correction.
🪙 XAU/USD Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Safe Haven Demand Reignites
Gold has regained momentum after the Fed left interest rates unchanged while signaling caution over inflation and labor market fragility. The market’s uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations is also fueling renewed safe-haven flows. Gold’s appeal is being reinforced by global debt concerns and expectations that central banks may be nearing their tightening limits.
Technically, gold is in a bullish formation, though immediate resistance near $3405 could limit upside in the short term. Dips toward $3355 and $3334 are viewed as buying opportunities, particularly if risk sentiment deteriorates further.
Forecast: Gold is poised for further gains, particularly if trade tensions escalate or U.S. data begins to falter. A sustained push above $3405 opens the door to a test of $3444 and eventually $3500.
Support levels: 3355, 3334, 3269, 3223, 3194
Resistance levels: 3405, 3444, 3500
🔍 Outlook: A break below $3334 would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis and expose gold to a deeper correction toward $3270. However, as long as buyers defend the $3355 zone, the medium-term trend remains intact.
₿ BTC/USD Outlook – Bitcoin
Liquidity Inflows and Policy Shifts Fuel Rally
Bitcoin is capturing investor attention as it surges toward the key $100,000 threshold. While much of the mainstream narrative attributes market momentum to Fed policy, insiders like Arthur Hayes argue that U.S. Treasury actions — particularly the release of liquidity and short-term bond issuance — are the true drivers.
This monetary backdrop, combined with institutional inflows into spot BTC ETFs, suggests a shift from speculative hype to structural adoption. A recent $142 million daily inflow indicates growing institutional confidence. In parallel, the U.S. is moving toward regulatory clarity with pending legislation to define crypto infrastructure and stablecoin standards.
Bitcoin is also benefiting from geopolitical considerations. As global powers compete over digital finance leadership, the U.S. is positioning itself as a regulatory leader — a shift that adds legitimacy and long-term tailwinds to BTC.
Forecast: BTC remains in a bullish phase. A break above $100,000 would likely trigger a technical and psychological breakout toward $102,500, then $109,000.
Support levels: 95,715 (50-day MA), 92,800, 88,000
Resistance levels: 99,824, 100,756 (Fib extension), 102,501, 109,000
🔍 Outlook: Bitcoin’s trend remains strong. As long as it holds above $95,700, dips are likely to be bought. A failure at $99,824 may produce short-term volatility, but overall sentiment favors further upside.
📊 Summary Table: As of May 9, 2025
Summary Forecast Table
| Asset | Directional Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Fundamental Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Bearish to Neutral | 1.1297, 1.1246, 1.1157 | 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1440 | ECB-Fed divergence, U.S. labor data, Eurozone retail sales decline |
| GBP/USD | Neutral to Bearish | 1.3286, 1.3246, 1.3121 | 1.3352, 1.3402, 1.3434 | BoE dovish outlook, U.K.-U.S. trade rumors, U.S. rate expectations |
| USD/JPY | Bullish | 143.00, 142.50, 141.96 | 144.42, 145.08, 147.13 | BoJ policy caution, Fed hawkishness, strong U.S. labor market |
| Gold (XAU) | Bullish | 3355, 3334, 3269 | 3405, 3444, 3500 | Safe-haven flows, Fed pause, U.S.-China trade tension |
| Bitcoin | Strongly Bullish | 95,715, 92,800, 88,000 | 99,824, 100,756, 102,501, 109,000 | Liquidity injection, institutional inflows, U.S. regulatory clarity, dollar softness |
