The US dollar is finding support due to expectations of continued Fed tightening. Euro and pound may see some temporary gains on hopes of rate cuts by the ECB and BoE, respectively. The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the wide interest rate differential with the US.
Euro (EUR):
- Outlook: Uncertain. The ECB is dovish and the Fed is hawkish, but EUR/USD is stuck in a range.
- Key Levels: Support – 1.0530, 1.0581;
- Resistance – 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0836, 1.0886, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092
- Trading Tips: Look for short-term trading opportunities within the range. Consider buying around 1.0778 with a target of 1.0815 and selling around 1.0756 with a target of 1.0724.
- Key factors:
- EUR bulls disappointed by weak German industrial orders data.
- ECB comments hinting at rate cuts in June support EUR.
- Overall data suggests a narrowing gap between US and Eurozone growth.
British Pound (GBP):
- Outlook: Uncertain. The BoE meeting on Thursday could be a major driver. A dovish stance might weaken the pound, while hawkish signals could lead to a correction of the recent decline.
- Key Levels: Support – 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516;
- Resistance – 1.2565, 1.2591, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987
- Trading Tips: Look for a potential downside move after the BoE meeting. Consider selling around 1.2558 with a target of 1.2491. A break below 1.2531 could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
- Key factors:
- Pound initially rose on strong UK construction PMI data.
- BoE meeting on Thursday could bring dovish signals hinting at a rate cut in June, similar to the ECB.
- BoE decision and potential dovish signals will be a key driver.
Australian Dollar (AUD):
- Outlook: Weakening. The RBA is on hold, while the Fed is hawkish.
- Key Levels: Support – 0.6501, 0.6574;
- Resistance – 0.6683, 0.6756
- Trading Tips: Look for selling opportunities. Consider selling if the price breaks below 0.6604.
- Factors to consider include commodity prices, risk appetite, and the RBA’s monetary policy stance.
Japanese Yen (JPY):
- Outlook: Bearish. The BoJ is unlikely to tighten policy as aggressively as the Fed, putting pressure on the yen.
- Key Levels: Support – 153.12, 153.57;
- Resistance – 154.34, 154.79
- Trading Tips: Look for selling opportunities. Consider selling around 154.67 with a target of 153.70. Conversely, a rise above 154.67 could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
- Key factors:
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Yen weakens for a second day on expectations of continued Fed tightening and a wide US-Japan rate differential.
- Japan’s large government debt makes rapid monetary policy normalization difficult.
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BoJ intervention last week provided only temporary support for the yen.
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Bitcoin (BTC):
- Outlook: Bearish. A technical correction is likely in the next few days.
- Key Levels: Support – 56,500, 59,375;
- Resistance – 63,975, 65,200
- Trading Tips: Look for selling opportunities, especially if the price falls below $64,000.
Categories: Market News
