The US dollar is expected to benefit from a hawkish Fed and a strong US economy, while the euro, pound, and yen are likely to face headwinds due to dovish central banks and weaker economies. Gold remains volatile, with a potential breakout dependent on overcoming technical resistance.
USD (US Dollar):
- The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to a lack of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and positive economic data.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to see continued weakness as the European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to ease monetary policy before the Fed.
Euro (EUR):
- Trend: Bearish
- Key Levels: Resistance – 1.0787, Support – 1.0462
- Technical Analysis: Bearish pattern suggesting a decline towards 1.0462 with potential to fall below 1.0000. Resistance at 1.0787 not broken decisively.
- Fundamental Analysis: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates sooner than the Fed, weakening the euro.
- Forecast: EUR/USD is likely to continue its decline in the near future.
- Trading Tips: Consider selling EUR/USD with targets near 1.0462.
British Pound (GBP):
- Trend: Bearish
- Key Levels: Resistance – 1.2625, 1.2497, Support – 1.2039, 1.2470
- Technical Analysis: Bearish pattern suggesting a decline towards 1.2039, with resistance at 1.2470 not broken decisively.
- Fundamental Analysis: The Bank of England (BoE) hinted at potential rate cuts in the coming quarters, weakening the pound.
- Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to weaken further.
- Trading Tips: Consider selling GBP/USD with targets below 1.2039.
New Zealad Dollar (NZD):
- Trend: Neutral (short-term uptrend)
- Key Levels: Resistance – 0.6023, Support – 0.5988
- Technical Analysis: NZD/USD has broken resistance at 0.6014, but the overall trend is unclear.
- Fundamental Analysis: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain rates, and manufacturing data on Friday may impact the currency.
- Forecast: The NZD/USD outlook is uncertain, with potential for both upward and downward movement.
- Trading Tips: No clear trading recommendations yet.
Japanese Yen (JPY):
- Trend: Bullish
- Key Levels: Resistance – 156.42, Support – 155.22
- Technical Analysis: USD/JPY is testing resistance at 155.96, with potential to rise further.
- Fundamental Analysis: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may be turning slightly hawkish, but significant rate hikes are unlikely due to the fragile economy.
- Forecast: USD/JPY is likely to continue its upward trend.
- Trading Tips: Consider buying USD/JPY with targets near 156.26.
Gold (XAU):
- Trend: Neutral (short-term consolidation)
- Key Levels: Resistance – 2,315, Support – 2,290.
- Gold tends to benefit from a weaker US dollar and rising inflation.
- However, rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices.
- Analysis: Gold is consolidating but needs to break above 2,315 for a strong bullish move. A break below 2,290 could indicate a technical correction.
- Forecast: The direction of gold depends on its ability to break above 2,315. A break above could lead to a rise, while a break below could lead to a correction.
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