The euro remained stable amid a lack of economic data, with traders awaiting U.S. durable goods figures for direction. The British pound saw volatility as inflation concerns and Bank of England policy speculation influenced sentiment. The Japanese yen weakened, with the Bank of Japan maintaining a cautious stance, while U.S. policy developments added to market uncertainty. Gold maintained a positive tone but faced resistance, with traders balancing safe-haven demand against dollar strength and economic data. Market participants continue to assess central bank policies and global trade developments for future moves.
EUR/USD
Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD:
- Economic Data: The lack of significant Eurozone data has led to limited movement in EUR/USD. However, U.S. economic indicators, particularly Durable Goods Orders, play a crucial role in determining the short-term direction.
- ECB Monetary Policy: With ECB officials suggesting that interest rate cuts are not yet confirmed, market participants are closely watching upcoming meetings. The current probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the April 17 meeting remains around 68%.
- U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed’s stance on interest rates is a major driver. If upcoming U.S. data suggests weaker economic performance, expectations for a Fed rate cut may rise, weakening the dollar.
- Geopolitical Events: Any escalation in geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, or tariff implementations by the U.S. could influence EUR/USD volatility.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.0766, 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
- Resistance: 1.0830, 1.0858, 1.0918, 1.0947, 1.0979
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair currently shows a bearish trend, with the next key support at 1.0766. If the pair holds above this level, a rebound toward 1.0830 is possible. However, a break below could lead to further declines toward 1.0677. The medium-term outlook depends on Fed policy expectations and Eurozone economic resilience.
GBP/USD
Key Factors Affecting GBP/USD:
- UK Inflation Data: Lower-than-expected inflation has led to a decline in the British pound, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts by the Bank of England.
- Bank of England Policy: Investors anticipate potential policy easing, but persistent inflation above the BoE’s target complicates decision-making.
- U.S. Dollar Strength: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and upcoming speeches by Fed officials may reinforce the dollar’s position if the data remains strong.
- Retail Sales and Business Sentiment: The latest UK retail sales data showed a continued decline, adding further pressure on the pound.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.2933, 1.2911, 1.2866, 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
- Resistance: 1.2974, 1.3010
Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish structure as long as it stays above 1.2911. A breakout above 1.2974 could signal a continuation of the upward trend toward 1.3010. However, if price action falls below 1.2911, bearish momentum could extend toward 1.2866 and lower.
USD/JPY
Key Factors Affecting USD/JPY:
- Bank of Japan Policy: The BoJ remains cautious about rate hikes, supporting a weaker yen. However, inflation concerns may push the central bank toward tighter monetary policy.
- U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Hawkish statements from Fed officials could support further gains for USD/JPY, while weak economic data may lead to dollar weakness.
- Trade Policy and Geopolitical Risks: U.S. tariff policies could affect Japanese exports, influencing JPY demand.
- Technical Momentum: The pair remains in an uptrend, but resistance at 151.32 may act as a cap.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25
- Resistance: 151.32, 152.32
Forecast:
USD/JPY is trending higher, with buyers likely targeting 151.32. A break above this level could lead to further gains toward 152.32. However, if support at 149.51 is breached, the downtrend may resume.
XAU/USD
Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices:
- U.S. Monetary Policy: Gold remains sensitive to the Fed’s rate expectations. If the Fed signals aggressive rate cuts, gold may rally further.
- Global Uncertainty: Trade policies, geopolitical risks, and market instability drive safe-haven demand for gold.
- ETF Flows and Investor Sentiment: Gold-backed ETFs saw significant inflows, suggesting strong investor demand.
- Technical Levels: Gold remains near key resistance, with potential for further gains if momentum sustains.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $3000, $2980, $2956
- Resistance: $3036, $3046, $3125
Forecast:
Gold remains in a bullish structure above the $3000 level. A breakout above $3036 could open the path toward $3046 and possibly $3125. However, failure to hold $3000 could result in a deeper correction toward $2980 or $2956.
Conclusion
- EUR/USD: Bearish bias below 1.0830; support at 1.0766, resistance at 1.0858.
- GBP/USD: Bullish above 1.2933; resistance at 1.2974, support at 1.2911.
- USD/JPY: Bullish trend; resistance at 151.32, support at 149.51.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Neutral to bullish; resistance at $3,036, key support at $3,000.
