The euro shows resilience amid shifting economic sentiment, while the pound remains under pressure due to policy uncertainty. The yen experiences volatility as market participants react to global developments. The Canadian dollar sees fluctuations driven by commodity trends and economic outlook shifts. Gold holds steady, reflecting its role as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, with movements influenced by inflation concerns and central bank policies. Overall, the market remains sensitive to global economic conditions and investor sentiment, shaping the trajectory of these assets.
EUR/USD
Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD
- European Economic Growth: The Euro has shown resilience following better-than-expected economic indicators from Germany. The ZEW economic sentiment survey reached a three-year high, reflecting optimism regarding economic expansion.
- ECB Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its monetary easing approach, with market expectations pricing in a possible rate cut of 25 basis points in April.
- US Federal Reserve Decision: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a key determinant for EUR/USD. If the Fed signals that inflation is under control, further dollar weakness could bolster the Euro.
- Fiscal Policies: Germany’s expansive fiscal measures, including a €500 billion fund for infrastructure, are likely to support the Euro.
- Inflation Trends: A downward revision of Eurozone inflation to 2.3% from 2.4% suggests that price pressures are easing, which could influence ECB policy decisions.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.0897, 1.0803, 1.0677, 1.0602
- Resistance: 1.0947, 1.0979, 1.1050
Forecast
The EUR/USD pair remains bullish in the short term but is consolidating within the 1.0897–1.0947 range. If the pair breaks below 1.0830, it may trigger a deeper correction.
GBP/USD
Key Factors Affecting GBP/USD
- Bank of England Policy: The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4.5%, with fewer rate cuts compared to the Fed, supporting GBP strength.
- UK Economic Growth: While recent data showed an economic contraction, expectations of infrastructure investment provide support.
- US Monetary Policy: Similar to the Euro, the Pound’s direction depends on Fed decisions and rate projections.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.2963, 1.2912, 1.2866, 1.2811
- Resistance: 1.3010, 1.3075
Forecast
The bullish trend in GBP/USD remains intact, but a break below 1.2912 could shift momentum to the downside. Further upside is contingent on breaking and holding above 1.3010.
USD/JPY
Key Factors Affecting USD/JPY
- Bank of Japan Policy: The BoJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5%, emphasizing cautious economic assessment.
- US Interest Rates: The Fed’s stance on rate cuts will influence the pair, with dovish expectations potentially weakening USD against JPY.
- Risk Sentiment: Market concerns over US economic slowdown and trade tensions could lead to JPY strength as a safe-haven currency.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 149.06, 148.48, 148.17, 147.61
- Resistance: 150.16, 151.29, 152.32
Forecast
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend. A break above 150.16 could see further gains, while a decline below 147.43 would indicate a bearish shift.
USD/CAD
Key Factors Affecting USD/CAD
- Inflation Data: Canada’s inflation rate rose to 2.1% in February, signaling possible challenges for BoC rate policy.
- Bank of Canada Policy: The BoC recently cut rates by 25 basis points, but trade tensions with the US could limit further easing.
- Oil Prices: The CAD remains tied to oil price fluctuations. Any geopolitical instability may provide support to the currency.
- US Economic Data: Weaker US retail sales and declining manufacturing activity contribute to USD/CAD volatility.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.4260, 1.4200
- Resistance: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4455
Forecast
USD/CAD may remain range-bound in the short term. A break above 1.4350 could lead to further USD gains, while a drop below 1.4260 could favor CAD strength.
XAU/USD
Key Factors Affecting Gold
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed’s monetary stance will significantly influence gold’s direction, with dovish signals likely supporting gold prices.
- Safe-Haven Demand: Economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks continue to drive demand for gold.
- Inflation Outlook: Higher-than-expected inflation could support gold as a hedge against currency depreciation.
- Technical Factors: Gold has reached overbought levels, and profit-taking could lead to a temporary pullback.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: $3,000, $2,980
- Resistance: $3,045, $3,100
Forecast
Gold has stalled at all-time highs and could see a correction if it fails to sustain momentum above $3,045. A break below $3,000 may trigger further declines, while a sustained move above resistance could lead to new highs.
Conclusion
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD show potential for moderate gains.
- USD/JPY remains bullish unless BoJ intervenes.
- USD/CAD could react to oil prices and BoC stance.
- Gold’s movement depends on broader market risk sentiment and USD performance.
