The euro remains stable following economic data from Germany, reinforcing optimism about the Eurozone’s recovery. The pound saw demand due to technical corrections, though the absence of UK economic data limited momentum. The yen is under pressure as investors anticipate Japan’s monetary policy changes, with the dollar showing weakness amid uncertainty. Gold hovers near record highs as weaker U.S. employment data fuels demand for safe-haven assets. Market participants are closely monitoring global trade tensions and central bank decisions, which could influence future trends across currencies and commodities.
EUR/USD
Current Market Conditions
The Euro has been gaining strength due to positive macroeconomic data from Germany and an upward revision of the Eurozone’s Q4 GDP. The Eurozone’s economic resilience has contributed to bullish sentiment, even as the European Central Bank (ECB) considers future interest rate cuts.
However, the bullish momentum is encountering resistance as investors weigh the possibility of ECB policy easing. The swaps market indicates a 61% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the ECB’s April 17 meeting. The pair’s movement remains sensitive to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy shifts.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.0820, 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
- Resistance: 1.0884
Forecast
The trend remains bullish in the short term, with potential for upward continuation if 1.0884 is breached. However, consolidation below 1.0820 may indicate a deeper correction. If the pair breaks below 1.0389, the longer-term downtrend could resume.
GBP/USD
Current Market Conditions
The British pound has experienced strong appreciation, with last week’s 2.65% rally being the largest since November 2022. Sterling’s strength is fueled by improved UK-EU cooperation on defense and investor optimism ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting on March 20.
The probability of a rate cut at the BoE’s May 8 meeting stands at 80%, suggesting that rate policy expectations will continue to drive volatility in GBP/USD.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.2866, 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
- Resistance: 1.2932, 1.3008
Forecast
The GBP/USD trend is bullish, but overbought conditions suggest a possible correction. If the pair consolidates above 1.2932, the next target is 1.3008. However, a break below 1.2582 would indicate a shift to a downtrend.
USD/JPY
Current Market Conditions
The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, retreating from a five-month high after U.S. Treasury yields surged. The Bank of Japan remains cautious, with reports suggesting that policymakers prefer to keep rates unchanged at the March 18-19 meeting.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 147.32
- Resistance: 148.40, 149.24, 150.16, 151.29, 152.32
Forecast
The medium-term trend for USD/JPY is bearish, with price action suggesting a potential test of 148.40 before a possible continuation downward. If the pair breaks above 151.29, the uptrend could resume.
USD/CAD
Current Market Conditions
The Canadian dollar weakened following a disappointing jobs report, with job growth stalling at 1.1k in February versus expectations of 20k. The Bank of Canada is under pressure to cut rates, with the probability of a rate cut at the March 12 meeting rising to 87%.
Trade uncertainty related to U.S. tariff threats is also weighing on CAD, as tensions could negatively impact the Canadian economy.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 1.4298
- Resistance: 1.4445, 1.4509
Forecast
USD/CAD has been forming a downward trend since February, with a short-term correction phase underway. If resistance at 1.4440–1.4490 holds, the pair may resume its bearish trend toward 1.4240–1.4190. However, a break above resistance would indicate a shift toward an uptrend.
XAU/USD
Current Market Conditions
Gold prices remain near record highs, fueled by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and uncertainty regarding global trade policy. Rising unemployment and moderate wage growth in the U.S. have supported gold’s safe-haven appeal.
However, risk sentiment could shift if trade tensions ease, potentially leading to a sharp gold price correction.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Support: 2894, 2859, 2833
- Resistance: 2930, 2940, 2944
Forecast
Gold is currently trading in a volatile range of 2894–2930. If the price breaks above 2930, it could test 2944. Conversely, a breakdown below 2894 could trigger a decline toward 2859 and 2833. Given the uncertain geopolitical climate, gold’s trajectory remains closely tied to risk sentiment and U.S. economic data.
Conclusion
The forex and commodities markets remain highly dynamic, influenced by central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain in uptrends but are approaching key resistance levels that may trigger corrections.
- USD/JPY continues to face downward pressure, though short-term corrections are likely.
- USD/CAD is in a corrective phase but could resume its downtrend if resistance holds.
- Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near all-time highs, with market sentiment playing a crucial role in determining its next move.
Traders should remain cautious and monitor economic data releases, as shifts in market sentiment could significantly impact currency and commodity trends.
