The euro held firm despite weak German data, while the pound gained support from geopolitical calm and investor confidence. The yen recovered on risk-off sentiment but stayed under pressure from U.S. policy outlooks. The Australian dollar advanced as hopes rose for peace in the Middle East and stable inflation at home. Meanwhile, gold dipped with safe-haven demand easing, though investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S. data and central bank signals. Each market reflected a balance between geopolitical shifts and evolving expectations on economic resilience and monetary policy direction.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD:
- Mixed IFO data from Germany with soft current conditions and business climate numbers, but stronger expectations.
- Market reaction to this data has been limited, suggesting much is already priced in.
- Traders await U.S. Consumer Confidence and Powell’s speech for fresh direction.
- Ongoing ceasefire developments in the Middle East could reduce safe-haven flows to the USD.
- ECB remains on track for a rate cut in September, which weighs modestly on the euro.
Support Levels: 1.1544, 1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373
Resistance Levels: 1.1616, 1.1684
Forecast Outlook:
- Mild bullish bias remains as long as price stays above 1.1544.
- A break above 1.1616 may extend the rally toward 1.1684.
- Strong U.S. data or hawkish Fed commentary may push the pair down toward 1.1471 or lower.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing GBP/USD:
- Pound strength persists despite softer economic data, driven by relative political and monetary policy stability.
- Flash PMI above 50 supports economic resilience; however, BOE remains cautious with potential dovish tilt.
- Market favors GBP as a semi-safe haven compared to EUR during European geopolitical tensions.
- U.S. data and Powell’s stance on interest rates will heavily affect next moves.
Support Levels: 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
Resistance Levels: 1.3583, 1.3603, 1.3686
Forecast Outlook:
- Pound remains firm if sentiment stays risk-on and BOE holds rates.
- Break above 1.3603 opens door to 1.3686.
- A strong dollar and hawkish Fed outlook could push GBP/USD back below 1.3509 toward 1.3450.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors Influencing USD/JPY:
- Yen strengthens amid geopolitical relief and weaker U.S. dollar tone.
- Ceasefire between Israel and Iran calms markets, reducing dollar demand.
- Market awaits Powell’s comments and Consumer Confidence Index.
- Risk sentiment remains critical; any resurgence of conflict could swing USD/JPY rapidly.
Support Levels: 145.02, 144.73, 144.36
Resistance Levels: 146.62, 148.28
Forecast Outlook:
- USD/JPY remains bullish medium-term unless price drops below 145.02.
- A dip to 144.36 is possible on weaker U.S. data or rising safe-haven flows to JPY.
- Resumption of risk-on mood and strong U.S. data may push pair toward 146.62.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD:
- AUD rallies on easing geopolitical tensions and rising risk appetite.
- Australia’s labor market is mixed; full-time jobs up but part-time jobs down.
- May CPI data (due June 25) could impact RBA rate cut expectations.
- Current market pricing favors AUD as long as ceasefire holds and inflation doesn’t collapse.
Support Levels: 0.6490, 0.6455
Resistance Levels: 0.6550, 0.6600
Forecast Outlook:
- AUD/USD remains bullish as long as it holds above 0.6490.
- May CPI above expectations would solidify bullish stance, targeting 0.6550 and beyond.
- If CPI disappoints and risk sentiment weakens, price may retest 0.6455.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing Gold:
- Gold retreats as ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk premium.
- Fed officials hint at dovish shift; Powell’s testimony critical for next gold move.
- U.S. inflation and consumer data may influence interest rate expectations and gold’s path.
- Oversold conditions may trigger short-term rebounds but risk of further sell-off remains.
Support Levels: 3338, 3315, 3303, 3272
Resistance Levels: 3357, 3379, 3405, 3444
Forecast Outlook:
- Gold remains vulnerable below 3357, but profit-taking may cause rebounds near 3315.
- A clear move above 3379 may revive bullish potential toward 3444.
- Sustained pressure below 3338 opens room for deeper drop toward 3300 or lower.
📊 Summary Table: As of June 25, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Outlook Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Slight Bullish | 1.1544, 1.1471, 1.1445 | 1.1616, 1.1684 | Bullish above 1.1544; break above 1.1616 targets 1.1684 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral to Bullish | 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450 | 1.3603, 1.3686 | Bullish above 1.3509; hawkish Fed could shift tone |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Cautiously Bullish | 145.02, 144.36 | 146.62, 148.28 | Holding above 145 keeps uptrend alive; watch Powell |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bullish | 0.6490, 0.6455 | 0.6550, 0.6600 | Bullish on ceasefire and CPI strength; key resistance 0.6550 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish Bias | 3338, 3315, 3303 | 3357, 3379, 3405 | Below 3357 risks further losses; rebound if 3379 reclaimed |
