The euro lost ground after weak regional data and cautious ECB expectations, while the pound faced renewed pressure despite strong local figures as broader economic challenges weighed. The yen weakened sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, driving demand for the dollar and reinforcing bullish momentum in the pair. Gold, though traditionally a safe haven, slipped as traders favored the dollar amid intensifying global risks and delayed Fed rate cut projections, with investors watching for further developments in U.S. data and geopolitical responses.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Impacting EUR/USD:
- Eurozone PMI data disappointed expectations, reflecting contraction in the services and manufacturing sectors.
- Weak German PPI and declining consumer confidence suggest slowing inflation and weak demand.
- The European Central Bank remains dovish, with market pricing hinting at a potential rate cut by July.
- The US dollar gained strength as geopolitical risks escalated with US involvement in the Middle East conflict.
- Rising US Treasury yields and hawkish tones from the Fed added additional pressure on the euro.
Intraday and Weekly Outlook:
- Early weakness from Eurozone data and global tensions prompted a sell-off toward support, but the pair recovered with risk sentiment stabilizing.
- Attention will now focus on upcoming US PMIs to confirm US economic strength or reveal softening that could reverse dollar strength.
- A test of resistance above 1.1539 may bring a pullback unless Eurozone data shows signs of resilience.
Support Levels:
1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373, 1.1356, 1.1312, 1.1296, 1.1269
Resistance Levels:
1.1539, 1.1572, 1.1616
Forecast:
A weak eurozone macro backdrop, combined with stronger dollar demand due to geopolitical escalation, keeps EUR/USD under pressure. While rebounds are possible on dollar pullbacks, euro strength is likely to remain capped unless economic indicators improve.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Impacting GBP/USD:
- UK PMI data was relatively strong but offered limited support as inflation and tax expectations cloud economic outlook.
- Persistent inflation reduces room for immediate Bank of England rate cuts, but economic uncertainty keeps future policy ambiguous.
- Global geopolitical instability and fears of escalating conflict are driving investors into the US dollar.
- The pound remains vulnerable to fiscal risks and potential policy tightening in response to sticky inflation and weak growth.
Intraday and Weekly Outlook:
- GBP/USD held near recent support zones, but attempts at recovery were limited by stronger dollar flows.
- Short-term rallies likely remain corrective as traders await clarity from Fed commentary and incoming UK economic data.
- FOMC member speeches and Middle East headlines will continue driving sentiment and direction.
Support Levels:
1.3388, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
Resistance Levels:
1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3522, 1.3583
Forecast:
Sterling is expected to face continued downside risk amid fragile domestic conditions and dollar strength. Unless geopolitical pressure eases or the UK delivers upside surprises in data, rallies may be sold into.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors Impacting USD/JPY:
- Sharp escalation in Middle East tensions led to safe-haven demand for the dollar, sending the yen lower.
- The Bank of Japan continues its accommodative stance, keeping interest rate differentials wide in favor of the US.
- Japanese manufacturing and services data showed mild improvement, but not enough to reverse yen weakness.
- Hawkish Fed rhetoric and risk-off flows boost dollar strength, further weakening the yen.
Intraday and Weekly Outlook:
- Price action shows strong momentum favoring the dollar, with 148 in focus as the next resistance zone.
- Any cooling of Middle East conflict may briefly strengthen the yen, but the structural divergence in monetary policy keeps the trend bullish for USD/JPY.
- Watch for any signals from US officials that may hint at moderating policy; otherwise, dips will likely be bought.
Support Levels:
146.74, 146.14, 145.46, 145.10, 144.73
Resistance Levels:
148.28
Forecast:
USD/JPY is expected to continue climbing as global uncertainty increases and yield differentials remain in the dollar’s favor. Short-term pullbacks could offer buying opportunities unless Japan intervenes verbally or actively.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Impacting Gold:
- The US joined Israeli military actions, striking Iranian nuclear sites, escalating Middle East tensions and boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Despite elevated risks, gold prices are pressured by a stronger US dollar and Fed policy expectations.
- While the Fed anticipates rate cuts in 2026-2027, current monetary stance remains restrictive, limiting gold’s upside.
- Inflation concerns tied to geopolitical disruptions could renew demand for gold as a hedge.
Intraday and Weekly Outlook:
- Gold failed to sustain recent highs, consolidating near 3350 as traders weigh Fed expectations against geopolitical risks.
- Any Iranian retaliation could trigger strong safe-haven flows, lifting prices back above 3379.
- Dollar strength may continue to cap gains unless accompanied by weaker US data or renewed Fed dovishness.
Support Levels:
3338, 3315, 3303, 3272, 3248
Resistance Levels:
3379, 3405, 3444, 3500
Forecast:
Gold remains at a crossroads, with bearish pressure from dollar strength offset by geopolitical uncertainty. A break above 3379 could trigger another bullish leg, while sustained trade below 3338 could open deeper losses.
📊 Summary Table: As of June 24, 2025
| Asset | Trend | Key Drivers | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Forecast Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mildly Bearish | Weak Eurozone data, stronger dollar, ECB dovish bias | 1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373 | 1.1539, 1.1572, 1.1616 | Euro under pressure; recovery capped by weak data |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | Sticky inflation, fiscal concerns, geopolitical risk | 1.3388, 1.3333, 1.3291 | 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3522 | Pound vulnerable; corrective rallies may fade |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | Hawkish Fed, BOJ dovish, rising yields, risk-off sentiment | 146.74, 146.14, 145.46 | 148.28 | Yen likely to weaken further; watch for interventions |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Neutral-Bullish | Safe-haven demand, strong dollar, Fed policy tension | 3338, 3315, 3303 | 3379, 3405, 3444 | Bullion range-bound; geopolitical shocks can lift it |
