The US dollar could strengthen on weaker-than-expected US retail sales data. The Euro and Pound could see downside pressure on strong US data. The Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance could support the Japanese Yen. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars could see choppy trading depending on US data. Gold is directionless and could break out of its triangle pattern in either direction.

British Pound (GBP/USD):

• Trend: Bearish with potential for range trading.
• Support: 1.2686, 1.2658, 1.2647, 1.2608
• Resistance: 1.2714, 1.2735, 1.2806
• Key Points:
  • GBP fell on weak economic data.
  • UK inflation expected to fall to 2% on Wednesday.
  • BoE meeting on Thursday not expected to bring rate cut.
  • COT report shows increase in long GBP positions and decrease in short positions.
• Trading Strategy:
  • Long: Look for entries around 1.2657 if there’s a false breakout and weak US data, targeting 1.2688 and potentially 1.2743.
  • Short: Look for entries around 1.2688 if there’s a false breakout, targeting 1.2657 and potentially 1.2606.

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY):

• Trend: Bullish with some consolidation.
• Support: 157.52, 157.33, 156.56
• Resistance: 157.98, 158.29
• Key Points:
  • USD/JPY near yearly high.
  • Weak US data could see USD/JPY decline.
  • BoJ Governor comments suggest possibility of rate hike in July.
  • Technically, the pair is in a consolidation phase.
• Trading Strategy:
  • Long: Look for entries around 157.52 within the range, targeting 158.67.
  • Short: Look for entries around 158.29 if there’s a confirmation signal, targeting 157.66 and potentially 157.05.

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD):

• Trend: Neutral to Bullish
• Support: 0.6559, 0.6503
• Resistance: 0.6632, 0.6688
• Key Points:
  • The Aussie rose after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data.
  • The RBA held rates steady but signaled further hikes are possible.
  • AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6632. A break above could suggest further gains.
• Trading Strategy: AUD/USD is reacting to US data more than its own. Look for possible support around 0.6559 if US data weakens the dollar.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD):

• Trend: Under pressure
• Key Points:
  • The New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure despite the Fed’s hawkish forecast.
  • Mixed economic data from China is undermining the NZD.
  • Weaker US inflation data could limit downside for the NZD/USD.
• Trading Strategy: NZD/USD is pressured by USD strength. Look for possible support if US data weakens the dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD):

• Trend: Neutral
• Support: 2315, 2300, 2276
• Resistance: 2330
• Key Points:
  • Gold is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern.
  • A break above 2330 could signal bullish momentum.
  • A break below 2310 could indicate a bearish acceleration.
• Trading Strategy:
  
  • Long: Look for entries around 2308 or 2312 for a technical bounce.
  • Short: Look for entries below 2330 and close below 2,310, target 2300