The euro remains pressured by trade uncertainty and weak momentum, while the pound slides amid UK budget worries and limited demand. The yen softens as tariffs weigh on sentiment, despite Japan’s efforts to maintain diplomacy. The Australian dollar steadies after the RBA surprised markets by holding rates, but remains under commodity-linked strain. The kiwi consolidates around a key support ahead of the RBNZ decision, reflecting fragile risk appetite. Gold holds near recent lows, caught between geopolitical fears and fluctuating dollar strength, as traders watch for signs of inflation or central bank shifts.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- German Trade Balance: Initially supported euro sentiment but failed to sustain gains.
- US Tariff Developments: The market is on edge awaiting Trump’s midweek tariff declarations.
- Eurozone-US Trade Talks: A provisional EU-US deal may avoid escalation, but retaliatory tariffs are on standby.
- US NFIB Index and Consumer Credit: Short-term data points unlikely to spark major EUR/USD moves but signal US economic conditions.
Price Behavior:
- Euro attempted recovery after testing support at 1.1751 but quickly encountered renewed selling.
- Buyers remain active above 1.1686, yet momentum is limited without fresh drivers.
Forecast:
- Price consolidation is likely between 1.1687 and 1.1746 in the short term.
- Breakout above 1.1746 may push the euro toward 1.1810.
- If 1.1686 fails, bears may test deeper supports at 1.1651 and 1.1581.
Support Levels:
- 1.1687, 1.1651, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
Resistance Levels:
- 1.1746, 1.1810, 1.1913
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Lack of UK Data: No fresh economic updates from the UK keeps GBP exposed to US sentiment.
- UK Budget Risks: Chancellor hints at possible tax increases, raising fiscal concerns.
- BoE Policy Outlook: A September rate cut is still expected despite economic uncertainties.
- US Political Uncertainty: Trump’s tariff threats and potential trade shifts overshadow traditional indicators.
Price Behavior:
- Price rejection near 1.3640 suggests resistance is holding firm.
- Sellers are defending the 1.3589–1.3676 range, indicating a tug-of-war near mid-range.
Forecast:
- A move below 1.3589 could pressure the pound toward 1.3509 or 1.3450.
- A break above 1.3676 would pave the way for a rally toward 1.3712 or higher.
Support Levels:
- 1.3589, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3676, 1.3712, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Drivers:
- Trump’s Tariffs on Japan: New 25% tariff set for August is pressuring the yen.
- US-Japan Trade Relations: Prime Minister Ishiba aims for further negotiations.
- US Economic Data: Small business sentiment and consumer credit data offer directional hints.
Price Behavior:
- Despite attempts at gains near 146.19, USD/JPY failed to hold momentum.
- Sellers remain active near 146.50 but weak below 145.88.
Forecast:
- A bounce from 145.88 could push the pair toward 146.62 or even 148.28.
- A break below 145.28 increases the likelihood of deeper correction to 144.18.
Support Levels:
- 145.88, 145.28, 144.18
Resistance Levels:
- 146.62, 148.28
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- RBA Rate Decision: Surprise hold at 3.85% defied market expectations of a rate cut.
- Commodities Impact: Weakness in raw materials markets continues to pressure the Aussie.
- US Tariff Threats: Uncertainty over global tariffs indirectly dampens AUD sentiment.
Price Behavior:
- AUD rebounded from oversold territory post-RBA, but upside capped near resistance.
- Price tested 0.6513 but remains in a larger consolidation zone.
Forecast:
- Likely consolidation in the 0.6394–0.6446 range in the near term.
- A breakout below 0.6394 opens room toward 0.6262.
- Above 0.6513, the next target would be 0.6541.
Support Levels:
- 0.6463, 0.6435, 0.6394, 0.6262
Resistance Levels:
- 0.6513, 0.6541
🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- RBNZ Rate Decision: Market leans toward a hold, but tone could shape near-term expectations.
- Improving US-China Tone: Helped support NZD in Q2, but mood now more cautious.
- USD Strength: Dollar rebound has weighed on NZD/USD since early July.
Price Behavior:
- Price holding above 0.60 psychological level; testing lower boundary of upward channel.
- Short-term sellers are active, but support is holding.
Forecast:
- If 0.60 holds, a move toward 0.6050 or 0.6110 is possible.
- A breakdown below 0.60 would likely target 0.5930 or 0.59.
Support Levels:
- 0.60, 0.5930, 0.59
Resistance Levels:
0.6050, 0.6090, 0.6110–0.6120
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Drivers:
- Tariff-Induced Inflation Risks: Could keep Fed on hold, hurting gold’s upside potential.
- Safe-Haven Demand: Weighed by easing geopolitical fears but supported by US fiscal concerns.
- Trump’s Trade Policy: Postponed tariff implementation reduces immediate panic buying.
Price Behavior:
- Price rebounded to test resistance near $3347–3360 but stalled.
- Buyers are defending $3300, preventing deeper drops.
Forecast:
- Consolidation between $3300–3365 likely in the short term.
- A move above $3365 could test $3400 and $3444.
- A drop below $3300 may push toward $3270 and June lows.
Support Levels:
- 3301, 3274, 3246
Resistance Levels:
- 3342, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
📊 Summary Table: As of July 9, 2025
| Pair | Outlook | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Cautiously Bullish | 1.1687, 1.1651, 1.1581 | 1.1746, 1.1810, 1.1913 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Range-bound | 1.3589, 1.3509, 1.3450 | 1.3676, 1.3712, 1.3752 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish Bias | 145.88, 145.28, 144.18 | 146.62, 148.28 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish to Neutral | 0.6463, 0.6435, 0.6394 | 0.6513, 0.6541 |
| 🇳🇿 NZD/USD | Neutral to Bearish | 0.60, 0.5930, 0.59 | 0.6050, 0.6090, 0.6120 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Neutral Bias | 3301, 3274, 3246 | 3342, 3357, 3405, 3444, 3500 |
Categories: Market News
