The euro slipped as positive data failed to lift sentiment amid trade concerns, while the pound remained heavy under inflation and deficit worries. The yen weakened as poor wage figures reduced rate hike hopes. The Australian dollar held firm ahead of the rate decision, supported by risk appetite and resilient local data. Gold struggled to gain traction, pressured by dollar strength and easing fears, though geopolitical risks and Fed cut expectations kept downside limited for now. Caution dominates as markets await tariff updates and central bank signals in a tense global backdrop.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Influences:
- Euro under pressure despite positive German industrial output and Eurozone Sentix data.
- Lack of U.S. economic releases shifts focus to trade rhetoric from the Trump administration.
- ECB is expected to deliver another rate cut this year, weighing on the euro’s outlook.
Market Sentiment:
- Investors hesitant to buy the euro despite upbeat EU data, indicating lack of confidence.
- Volatility likely to rise in absence of U.S. data and ahead of potential tariff announcements.
Technical Picture:
- Bullish bias on the hourly chart, but recent price action suggests bearish pressure intraday.
- Short-term downside risks if no buyer reaction is seen near lower support levels.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
- Resistance: 1.1810, 1.1913
Forecast:
- Continued weakness expected unless support at 1.1686 holds. Tariff headlines may trigger whipsaw moves.
- If 1.1810 breaks, bullish momentum could extend toward 1.1913.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Influences:
- Sterling weakened by domestic economic pessimism and limited reaction to Halifax house price data.
- Focus shifts to trade deal headlines and U.S. tariffs.
- Ongoing fiscal challenges and inflation concerns keep pressure on the UK economy.
Market Sentiment:
- Sellers dominate intraday as confidence in the UK’s outlook remains fragile.
- Uncertainty about U.S. tariffs likely to limit upside potential.
Technical Picture:
- Flat accumulation phase but leaning bearish short-term.
- Watching for price behavior at key support near 1.3591 for bullish confirmation.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
- Resistance: 1.3675, 1.3712, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000
Forecast:
- If price stabilizes above 1.3591, moderate bullish rebound possible.
- Sustained break below 1.3470 would shift trend decisively bearish.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Macro Influences:
- Weak Japanese wage data dampens BOJ rate hike expectations.
- Yen further pressured by tough trade stance from Japanese leadership and no U.S. deal yet.
- USD buoyed by risk-off sentiment and safe-haven demand.
Market Sentiment:
- Bearish medium-term trend is losing momentum.
- Tariff updates could heavily impact risk appetite and yen direction.
Technical Picture:
- Approaching inflection point near 144.96; weak seller response could lead to bullish breakout.
- Sellers may reassert if price fails to consolidate above key resistance.
Key Levels:
- Support: 144.25, 143.33, 142.64
- Resistance: 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28
Forecast:
- Break above 144.96 may open up move to 145.95 and beyond.
- If rejected at resistance, downside back to 144.25 remains on the table.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Influences:
- AUD buoyed by strong domestic labor market and fading global tariff worries.
- Upcoming RBA meeting expected to deliver 25 bps rate cut, largely priced in.
- AUD remains sensitive to Chinese economic performance and US dollar strength.
Market Sentiment:
- Traders cautious ahead of rate decision; any surprise may trigger large moves.
- AUD rally stalled but still underpinned by resilient macro backdrop.
Technical Picture:
- Medium-term uptrend challenged by upcoming RBA event.
- Price consolidating between weekly support at 0.6386 and resistance at 0.6718.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.6500, 0.6475, 0.6386, 0.6300
- Resistance: 0.6580, 0.6655, 0.6670, 0.6740
Forecast:
- If no major surprises from the RBA, AUD could test resistance at 0.6655–0.6740.
- Dovish surprise or weak China data could push it toward 0.6386 or lower.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Macro Influences:
- Gold pressured by strong U.S. dollar and fading expectations of near-term Fed cuts.
- Geopolitical concerns and Trump’s tariff threats maintain safe-haven demand.
- Israeli strikes and BRICS-related tensions add a risk premium to gold.
Market Sentiment:
- Mixed outlook: safe-haven demand supports dips, but rate expectations limit upside.
- Volatile environment favors tactical positioning rather than long-term trend trades.
Technical Picture:
- Sellers remain active below 3357; price seeks liquidity toward 3301.
- A break above 3357 may shift the tone back toward bullish.
Key Levels:
- Support: 3327, 3301, 3274, 3246
- Resistance: 3342, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
Forecast:
- Holding above 3300 keeps bullish hopes alive; below that opens up 3274.
- Break above 3357 could drive price toward 3405–3444.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 8, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Key Factors Driving Moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mild Bearish | 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666 | 1.1810, 1.1913 | ECB cut expectations, US-EU trade uncertainty |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Neutral/Bearish | 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471 | 1.3675, 1.3712, 1.3752 | UK fiscal worries, Trump tariffs |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Neutral/Bullish | 144.25, 143.33, 142.64 | 144.96, 145.95, 146.62 | Weak Japan wages, risk sentiment |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Cautious Bullish | 0.6500, 0.6475, 0.6386 | 0.6580, 0.6655, 0.6740 | RBA decision, China outlook |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish to Neutral | 3327, 3301, 3274 | 3342, 3357, 3405 | USD strength, geopolitics, Fed rate bets |
Categories: Market News
