The euro steadied as upbeat PMI data offered limited support, with traders awaiting key U.S. job figures that could influence dollar sentiment. The pound showed resilience on service sector strength but faced pressure from UK political uncertainty. The yen held firm amid calmer trade talks and cautious positioning ahead of labor data. Gold remained range-bound, supported by Fed rate cut expectations but capped by optimism from new trade agreements. All eyes remain on upcoming U.S. employment data to guide the next major market move across currencies and commodities.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Current Situation:
- Hovering near highs not seen since August 2021.
- Mild reaction to positive Eurozone services PMI suggests market caution ahead of key U.S. data.
- ECB expected to maintain interest rates steady after inflation hit the 2% target.
- Demand for euro weakened after a 15-point rise post-technical support at 1.1801.
Key Influencing Factors:
- Eurozone macro data: Strong but already priced in.
- ECB stance: Likely neutral due to inflation target being met.
- U.S. NFP and unemployment rate: Core focus; strong data could revive dollar strength.
- Geopolitics: Mideast tensions and global trade uncertainty may favor euro if dollar weakens.
Trading Strategy Outlook:
- Buying opportunities near 1.1800–1.1778, targeting 1.1852 if U.S. jobs data underperforms.
- Selling pressure could resume if 1.1778 breaks, targeting 1.1724 and below on strong U.S. data.
Technical Levels:
- Support: 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
- Resistance: 1.1810, 1.1913
- Trend Bias: Bullish above 1.1748; bearish below 1.1581.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Current Situation:
- British pound dropped below 1.36 amid political uncertainty in the UK government.
- Positive UK services PMI temporarily boosted the pound, reflecting resilience in the services sector.
- Political instability and budget concerns undermine market confidence in the UK’s fiscal direction.
Key Influencing Factors:
- UK macro data: Services PMI strong, but concerns linger over fiscal leadership.
- BoE outlook: Governor hints at rate cuts due to hard landing risk.
- U.S. labor data: Will shape intraday momentum.
- Geopolitics: Domestic instability is currently a drag on GBP strength.
Trading Strategy Outlook:
- Buying near 1.3669–1.3645, targeting 1.3705 on weak U.S. data.
- Selling likely below 1.3645, aiming for 1.3610 if U.S. jobs surprise to the upside.
Technical Levels:
- Support: 1.3626, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
- Resistance: 1.3675, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000
- Trend Bias: Bullish short-term if above 1.3626; reversal possible under 1.3470.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Current Situation:
- Yen trading stable around 143.7 after recent weakness.
- U.S. jobs data expected to be a major directional trigger.
- Trade optimism and a weaker dollar earlier helped yen rebound modestly.
Key Influencing Factors:
- BoJ stance: Still ultra-loose; unlikely to tighten policy soon.
- U.S. monetary policy: Higher-for-longer stance favors dollar if job data is strong.
- Trade sentiment: Ongoing U.S.-Japan trade talks create temporary yen support.
- Yield differentials: Still strongly in favor of the dollar.
Trading Strategy Outlook:
- Buy near 143.79–143.98, targeting 144.39 if U.S. data is robust.
- Sell below 143.79, aiming for 143.29 on weaker economic signals.
Technical Levels:
- Support: 143.33, 142.64
- Resistance: 144.10, 144.48, 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28
- Trend Bias: Bearish medium-term; flat near-term awaiting data.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Current Situation:
- Consolidating around 3340–3357 after bouncing from 200-hour SMA.
- Optimism over U.S.–Vietnam trade deal capped gains.
- Market sentiment driven by rate cut expectations and NFP anticipation.
Key Influencing Factors:
- Fed expectations: Rate cut speculation supports gold if job data disappoints.
- Dollar direction: Weakness in the greenback is gold-positive.
- Geopolitical risk: Still underpins demand, but currently mild.
- Technical resilience: Multiple rejections of downside suggest accumulating buying pressure.
Trading Strategy Outlook:
- Buying near 3327 support zone, aiming for a breakout beyond 3357, with 3400 as the next key level.
- Selling possible near 3357 with tight stop, only if data surprises on the upside.
Technical Levels:
- Support: 3327, 3301, 3274, 3246
- Resistance: 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
- Trend Bias: Turning bullish; reversal signs growing stronger.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 4, 2025
| Asset | Direction Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Primary Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bullish (near-term) | 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1581 | 1.1810, 1.1913 | U.S. Jobs Data / ECB Rate Outlook |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bullish (cautiously) | 1.3626, 1.3591, 1.3471 | 1.3675, 1.3752, 1.4000 | UK Political Risk / NFP Data |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Neutral to Bearish | 143.33, 142.64 | 144.10, 144.48, 145.95 | Fed Policy Expectations / NFP |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish (building) | 3327, 3301, 3274 | 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444 | Fed Rate Cut Outlook / Dollar Moves |
Categories: Market News
