The euro remains subdued as growth data fail to ease recession fears, while the pound struggles amid weak UK figures and expectations of future rate cuts. The yen sees modest gains as markets await central bank cues, with volatility likely around U.S. decisions. The Canadian dollar weakens further, pressured by trade tensions and rate hold policies, despite resilient domestic data. The Australian dollar stays under pressure following softer inflation and rising expectations of a near-term rate cut. Gold finds support from inflation concerns and market uncertainty, with bullish potential above key levels.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Economic Drivers:
- The Euro remains weighed down by subdued economic growth in the Eurozone, with inflation still easing and recent ECB rhetoric tilting dovish.
- On the U.S. side, dollar strength continues to be supported by stronger-than-expected consumer confidence and a resilient labor market, which limit rate-cut urgency from the Fed.
- With risk sentiment neutral-to-cautious and the Fed showing little urgency to pivot, EUR/USD remains capped on rallies.
Market Behavior:
- During the U.S. session, the pair tested resistance near the upper boundary of the intraday range and failed to break higher, reflecting persistent bearish pressure.
- Sellers were active near resistance levels, indicating that market participants continue to favor dollar strength on technical pullbacks.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.0885, followed by 1.0910
- Support: 1.0840, followed by 1.0805
Forecast:
- Expect EUR/USD to stay pressured unless Eurozone macro data improves. A deeper drop toward the 1.0800 region is possible if upcoming U.S. job data surprises to the upside.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Economic Drivers:
- The Pound faces a mixed outlook amid weaker-than-expected UK growth signals and slowing wage pressures.
- BoE policymakers remain divided on the timing of cuts, but broad consensus points toward dovish adjustment starting this quarter.
- U.S. resilience continues to give the dollar an edge over the pound, with U.S. economic outperformance limiting GBP upside.
Market Behavior:
- GBP/USD briefly rebounded toward resistance but reversed lower during U.S. trading hours, aligning with broader USD demand.
- Sterling lacked strong momentum after bouncing from support, and the failure to hold above intraday highs suggests upside exhaustion.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.2880, followed by 1.2910
- Support: 1.2820, followed by 1.2785
Forecast:
- Downside bias remains intact while below 1.2880. A sustained move under 1.2820 may open the path to test the 1.2750 zone if U.S. economic strength continues to dominate.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Economic Drivers:
- The Yen remains weak on diverging policy paths. The Bank of Japan’s slow normalization and cautious tightening are no match for firm U.S. yields.
- U.S. data has stayed robust, keeping Treasury yields elevated and boosting USD/JPY even as Tokyo CPI shows some upward pressure.
- Japan’s Ministry of Finance remains a wild card if yen weakness accelerates beyond comfort.
Market Behavior:
- USD/JPY surged during the U.S. session, breaking intraday resistance, showing market favor toward dollar-yen carry trades.
- Buyers stepped in near support and drove price higher with little resistance, confirming solid underlying bullish momentum.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 158.20, followed by 158.60
- Support: 157.40, followed by 157.00
Forecast:
- USD/JPY remains biased higher while above 157.40. Risk of intervention will rise if the pair breaches 160, but for now, dips are likely to be bought.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
FuEconomic Drivers:
- The Canadian Dollar has weakened as oil prices retreat and domestic inflation shows signs of sustained easing.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on a gradual cutting path, while U.S. dollar strength keeps upward pressure on USD/CAD.
- Soft Canadian GDP data and lack of strong commodity support are also bearish CAD factors.
Market Behavior:
- USD/CAD pushed higher during the U.S. session, showing bullish reaction to stronger U.S. consumer confidence.
- Buyers continue to support the pair at dips, and failure to break below intraday lows points to a persistent uptrend.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.3795, followed by 1.3830
- Support: 1.3745, followed by 1.3700
Forecast:
Expect USD/CAD to remain buoyant above 1.3745. A break above 1.3795 could signal an extension toward the 1.3900 area, especially if oil prices fall further.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Economic Drivers:
- The Aussie remains under pressure due to sluggish Chinese economic data and weaker global risk appetite.
- Although the RBA has hinted at readiness to hike again if inflation resurfaces, markets remain skeptical, limiting upside for the currency.
- U.S. dollar strength remains the dominant driver, with risk-off flows further dragging AUD lower.
Market Behavior:
- AUD/USD attempted to rally but reversed at resistance, with sellers dominating near the top of the range.
- Price action suggests continued vulnerability amid cautious sentiment and lack of positive momentum from Asia.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 0.6675, followed by 0.6710
- Support: 0.6620, followed by 0.6590
Forecast:
- AUD/USD may continue to grind lower unless China data or risk sentiment improves. A break below 0.6620 could open deeper losses toward 0.6580.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Economic Drivers:
- Gold is losing luster as U.S. data beats expectations and Fed officials delay dovish pivots.
- Real yields remain firm, and lack of strong geopolitical escalation or risk-off demand has curbed gold’s safe haven appeal.
- The market awaits Friday’s U.S. jobs data to reassess the timing of rate cuts and real interest rate trajectories.
Market Behavior:
- Gold failed to hold gains during the U.S. session, falling back from resistance and triggering fresh seller interest.
- The metal struggled to sustain above the 2350 area, indicating strong supply on rallies and fading bullish conviction.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 2355, followed by 2368
- Support: 2330, followed by 2308
Forecast:
- Gold remains vulnerable to further downside unless it can reclaim ground above 2355. A dip below 2330 could extend the retracement to test 2300 in the near term.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 31, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Resistance | Key Support | Outlook Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.0885 / 1.0910 | 1.0840 / 1.0805 | Pressured by U.S. strength; downside risk if data stays strong |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.2880 / 1.2910 | 1.2820 / 1.2785 | Limited upside amid UK softness and USD resilience |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 158.20 / 158.60 | 157.40 / 157.00 | Upward momentum intact; watch for BoJ/MoF caution near 160 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Bullish | 1.3795 / 1.3830 | 1.3745 / 1.3700 | Firm USD and weak oil support further gains |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6675 / 0.6710 | 0.6620 / 0.6590 | Weak China data and cautious risk tone weigh on Aussie |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish | 2355 / 2368 | 2330 / 2308 | Real yield pressure and strong dollar cap gains |
Categories: Market News
