The euro and pound weakened under dollar strength fueled by trade optimism and U.S. data anticipation, while the yen faced added pressure from rising yields and BOJ caution. The Australian dollar struggled amid soft inflation prospects and growing rate cut bets, with Wednesday’s data seen as pivotal. Gold slipped as easing trade risks and a firmer dollar dented its appeal, though geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty offered some support.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing the Pair:
- Trade Agreement Impact: Recent US–EU trade agreement perceived as favoring the US; EU sentiment remains negative, putting pressure on the euro.
- Monetary Policy Divergence: Expectations of additional monetary easing from the European Central Bank contrast with the Federal Reserve’s more resilient policy stance.
- Political Risk in Europe: Growing resistance within EU member states to the terms of the US trade deal fuels political uncertainty.
- US Data Focus: Anticipated releases from the US (Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, and Trade Balance) likely to boost the dollar if results are strong.
Forecast Outlook:
- A continuation of dollar strength is likely, especially if upcoming US data confirm economic resilience.
- Euro may find temporary support on weak US data but the broader trend remains bearish due to fundamental divergences.
Support Levels:
- 1.1557
- 1.1518
Resistance Levels:
- 1.1612
- 1.1710
- 1.1770
Strategic Notes:
- A pullback toward 1.1612 may present selling opportunities if momentum stalls.
- Sustained price action above 1.1770 could signal trend reversal and shift the medium-term outlook toward the upside.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing the Pair:
- Weak UK Data: Disappointing PMIs and fragile consumer data weigh on the pound.
- Rate Cut Expectations: Rising probability that the Bank of England will cut rates in August and potentially again by year-end.
- US Dollar Strength: Greenback remains supported by economic optimism and trade-related gains.
- US Data Watch: Upcoming labor market and consumer sentiment indicators are pivotal for short-term GBP direction.
Forecast Outlook:
- Downside pressure on GBP is expected to persist as rate cut expectations intensify.
- A moderate rebound may occur if the US data underwhelms, but upward moves are likely corrective.
Support Levels:
- 1.3333
- 1.3252
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3375
- 1.3402
- 1.3452
- 1.3470
Strategic Notes:
- Price action below 1.3333 may invite further declines toward 1.3252.
- Reclaiming 1.3470 would undermine the current bearish structure and suggest fresh bullish momentum.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Key Factors Influencing the Pair:
- US Strength vs. Yen Weakness: Rising US yields and strong dollar sentiment continue to weigh on the yen.
- BoJ Stance: Bank of Japan remains cautious, with inflation forecast adjustments likely, but no policy shift expected.
- US Trade Optimism: Agreements viewed as net-positive for US growth, boosting the dollar’s appeal.
- Upcoming US Data: Strong results could add to pressure on the yen and support a renewed rally in USD/JPY.
Forecast Outlook:
- The pair remains in an upward trajectory, supported by both monetary divergence and trade-driven dollar demand.
- A moderate correction may precede further gains if short-term resistance is challenged.
Support Levels:
- 147.94
- 147.50
- 146.83
Resistance Levels:
- 148.81
- 149.16
Strategic Notes:
- A breakout above 149.16 could accelerate the rally toward 150.
- A dip toward 147.95 may present buying opportunities as long as broader dollar sentiment holds.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing the Pair:
- Inflation Slowdown: Q2 CPI expected to decline to its lowest level since 2021, which would cement expectations of an RBA rate cut.
- RBA Policy Outlook: A dovish tilt prevails as the labor market shows signs of cooling and core inflation trends lower.
- Commodity Price Weakness: Softness in export prices (iron ore, gas, fuel) compounds AUD downside risks.
- US Dollar Dynamics: Broad USD strength further weakens the Aussie, with little domestic support in sight.
Forecast Outlook:
- Bearish momentum to persist if CPI confirms inflation slowdown and labor softness.
- Short-term recovery likely to be limited and subject to resistance from broader economic weakness.
Support Levels:
- 0.6484
- 0.6450
- 0.6420
Resistance Levels:
- 0.6514
- 0.6530
- 0.6544
Strategic Notes:
- Bearish continuation confirmed on break below 0.6480, targeting deeper lows.
- Upside attempts may stall at 0.6530–0.6544 unless inflation surprises to the upside.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Key Factors Influencing the Pair:
- Trade Optimism and Dollar Strength: Trade deals with the EU and Japan have lifted the dollar, lowering gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Fed Meeting in Focus: No rate change expected, but market closely watching policy tone for clues on potential September moves.
- Geopolitical Risks: US-Russia tensions and ongoing trade negotiations with China are supportive of safe-haven demand but outweighed by dollar strength for now.
- Upcoming US Data: Strong data releases could further pressure gold, especially if they delay rate cut expectations.
Forecast Outlook:
- Bearish momentum remains intact as the price settles below critical resistance zones.
- Any rebound will face strong selling pressure near key resistance areas unless geopolitical risks escalate.
Support Levels:
- 3296
Resistance Levels:
- 3323
- 3351
- 3374
- 3401
- 3438
Strategic Notes:
- Below 3296, price may accelerate to the downside, targeting deeper supports.
- A sustained move above 3342 could open a path to 3371 and beyond, but would require a meaningful drop in the US dollar or escalation in geopolitical tensions.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 30, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1557, 1.1518 | 1.1612, 1.1710, 1.1770 | US economic strength, EU political risks, ECB easing |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3333, 1.3252 | 1.3375, 1.3402, 1.3470 | Weak UK data, BoE rate cut bets, strong dollar |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 147.94, 147.50, 146.83 | 148.81, 149.16 | Yield spreads, trade optimism, BoJ caution |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6484, 0.6450, 0.6420 | 0.6514, 0.6530, 0.6544 | Soft inflation, RBA policy outlook, weak exports |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bearish | 3296 | 3323, 3351, 3374, 3401, 3438 | Dollar strength, Fed policy expectations, geopolitics |
Categories: Market News
