The euro remains under pressure due to weak labor data and rising geopolitical tensions, while the pound is weighed down by rate cut hints and soft growth. The yen faces renewed weakness amid trade threats despite resilient domestic sentiment. The Australian dollar slips following soft retail data and rate cut bets, though downside appears limited. Gold holds steady, benefiting from dollar weakness and safe-haven flows, with further gains possible if global uncertainties persist and U.S. job data disappoints.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- Euro weakened slightly after Eurozone unemployment rose unexpectedly to 6.3%.
- ECB policymakers signaled no imminent rate changes; Lagarde warned of geopolitical and economic fragmentation risks.
- Dollar strength remains supported by robust U.S. economic indicators and a strong ADP employment report.
- Ongoing trade tension from Trump’s tariff threats adds pressure on risk assets, limiting EUR demand.
Forecast & Strategy:
- Sentiment leans bearish if U.S. data remains strong.
- Recovery is possible if U.S. jobs data disappoints.
Support Levels: 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
Resistance Levels: 1.1822, 1.1913
Trading Bias:
Bearish below 1.1700; target 1.1581
Bullish above 1.1748; target 1.1822/1.1913
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- Pound pressured by dovish Bank of England signals; rate cut expected in August.
- Lack of UK economic data makes GBP reactive to USD trends.
- Bailey acknowledged slowing UK growth and labor market softening.
- Political uncertainty around UK welfare policy could impact fiscal expectations.
Forecast & Strategy:
- Downside pressure remains if U.S. jobs data is strong.
- GBP could rebound temporarily if ADP/NFP miss expectations.
Support Levels: 1.3698, 1.3675, 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
Resistance Levels: 1.3734, 1.3748, 1.4000
Trading Bias:
- Bullish above 1.3698; target 1.3734/1.3748
- Bearish below 1.3698; target 1.3675/1.3652
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Market Context:
- Yen weakened after Trump threatened 35% tariffs on Japanese imports.
- Domestic Japanese business sentiment improved, but external risks dominate.
- BoJ remains dovish; interest rate differentials continue to favor USD.
- Traders await clarity from U.S. labor data for fresh direction.
Forecast & Strategy:
- Pair may rise if ADP/NFP beat estimates.
- Risk of reversal if Trump’s tariff stance intensifies or U.S. data disappoints.
Support Levels: 143.41, 143.37, 142.64
Resistance Levels: 143.93, 144.48, 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28
Trading Bias:
- Bullish above 143.86; target 144.64/144.96
- Bearish below 143.41; target 142.64
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- AUD pressured after weaker-than-expected retail sales (0.2% vs. 0.4% forecast).
- Markets anticipate a rate cut by the RBA next week; inflation is under control at 2.1%.
- U.S. dollar strength is capping AUD gains, though longer-term dollar outlook is clouded by Fed rate cut prospects.
- Gold prices and China sentiment continue to indirectly affect AUD.
Forecast & Strategy:
- AUD could stabilize if U.S. dollar weakens post-labor data.
- Further downside if RBA confirms dovish stance next week.
Support Levels: 0.6555, 0.6540
Resistance Levels: 0.6582, 0.6594
Trading Bias:
- Bullish above 0.6555; target 0.6582/0.6594
- Bearish below 0.6540; target 0.6500
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Market Context:
- Gold rose above $3340, supported by weaker dollar and renewed geopolitical risks.
- Trump’s spending bill raises fiscal concerns, boosting gold as a safe-haven.
- Powell’s cautious stance and expectations of Fed cuts in coming months support a bullish gold narrative.
- Price is at a key resistance zone; buyers gaining ground.
Forecast & Strategy:
- A sustained break above $3350 may open the way to $3405 and beyond.
- Consolidation possible if yields rise on strong U.S. labor data.
Support Levels: 3327, 3301, 3274, 3246
Resistance Levels: 3350, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
Trading Bias:
- Bullish above 3327; target 3393/3405
- Bearish below 3301; target 3274/3246
📊 Summary Table: As of July 3, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Macro Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Mild Bearish | 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1581 | 1.1822, 1.1913 | Weak EU data, strong USD, ADP/NFP risk |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3698, 1.3675, 1.3652 | 1.3734, 1.3748, 1.4000 | BoE dovish signals, no UK data, U.S. jobs in focus |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Bullish | 143.41, 143.37, 142.64 | 143.93, 144.48, 144.96 | U.S. data strength, tariff threats, BoJ caution |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6555, 0.6540 | 0.6582, 0.6594 | Weak retail sales, RBA rate cut bets, dollar headwinds |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3327, 3301, 3274 | 3350, 3357, 3405, 3444 | Fiscal concerns, USD weakness, Fed rate cut prospects |
