The euro remains supported by confidence in ECB policy despite weak regional data and trade tensions. The pound faces headwinds from soft economic indicators and cautious central bank signals. The yen holds steady on political shifts and safe-haven demand, while the kiwi finds modest strength amid mixed inflation data and cautious RBNZ outlook. Gold stays resilient within its range, lifted by global uncertainty and diverging Fed views, as traders weigh geopolitical risks and shifting expectations on interest rates and tariffs.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Drivers:
- Lack of Eurozone data gives euro a temporary reprieve, aiding recovery.
- Dovish ECB sentiment lingers due to weak German PPI and Eurozone construction output.
- Upcoming ECB meeting (July 24) in focus; market assigns a very low probability of a rate cut.
- Ongoing U.S.–EU trade tensions could limit euro upside.
- US Leading Index data viewed as non-impactful unless surprisingly strong or weak.
Market Behavior:
- Euro attempted rebound following intraday dip to 1.1654, buoyed by lack of negative catalysts.
- Price momentum supported by hopes of ECB policy stability.
- Traders watch resistance around 1.1660 and potential breakout above 1.1714.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 1.1615, 1.1561, 1.1518
- Resistance levels: 1.1660, 1.1714, 1.1762, 1.1810, 1.1913
- Bias: Bearish short-term; neutral to bullish if price sustains above 1.1714
- Intraday Strategy: Longs from 1.1615 with confirmation; cautious shorts near 1.1660 if rejection occurs
Alternative Scenario:
- Sustained break above 1.1714 would likely trigger a fresh bullish wave toward 1.1762 and beyond.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Drivers:
- UK macro remains weak: manufacturing contraction, labor market softening, slow services growth.
- BoE seen as dovish with potential for two more cuts this year.
- Weak dollar environment offers temporary support, but internal UK economic fragility persists.
- Leading Index data from the US unlikely to provoke sharp movements unless highly surprising.
Market Behavior:
- Pound bounced on intraday testing of 1.3436, but rallies remain corrective.
- Sentiment fragile due to fiscal concerns and subdued economic momentum.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 1.3374, 1.3334
- Resistance levels: 1.3485, 1.3532, 1.3619, 1.3680, 1.3712
- Bias: Bearish overall; short-term bullish if 1.3485 is breached
- Intraday Strategy: Short-term longs from 1.3463 toward 1.3515; cautious shorts near resistance
Alternative Scenario:
- If price breaks and consolidates above 1.3485, bulls may target 1.3532 or 1.3619 in follow-through momentum.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Fundamental Drivers:
- Yen supported by safe-haven demand and political stability after elections.
- Dollar weighed down by dovish Fed tones and uncertainty around Trump’s tariff strategy.
- Japanese government spending outlook and US-Japan trade talks to influence sentiment.
Market Behavior:
- Recent downside move from 147.85 validated by broader dollar softness.
- Market closely watching 147.13 and 146.54 for deeper retracement opportunities.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 148.27, 146.72, 146.13, 145.88, 145.28, 144.18
- Resistance levels: 149.16
- Bias: Bullish medium-term; bearish short-term if price breaks 146.72
- Intraday Strategy: Buy near 148.27 with confirmation; no clear short setup unless 146.72 breaks
Alternative Scenario:
- Sustained break below 146.72 could drive a medium-term trend shift, with 145.88 and 144.18 as next targets.
🇳🇿 /🇺🇸 NZD/USD Outlook – New Zealand Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Drivers:
- Mixed inflation data: Q2 CPI below forecast despite annual uptick.
- RBNZ likely to cut rates in August unless global trade and inflation picture changes drastically.
- NZD lifted slightly by weak USD and risk-on sentiment, but constrained by uncertainty over global tariffs.
Market Behavior:
- Pair bounced from intraday lows but remained within Friday’s range, indicating indecision.
- Dollar softening supports recovery, but NZ economic headwinds keep upside limited.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 0.5957, 0.5923
- Resistance levels: 0.5996, 0.6030
- Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish short-term; major bullish breakout requires a firm close above 0.6030
- Intraday Strategy: Buy dips above 0.5957; avoid aggressive longs without confirmation above 0.5996
Alternative Scenario:
Break below 0.5923 would invalidate recovery and re-expose 0.5900 or lower.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Drivers:
- Dovish Fed comments and concerns over Trump’s tariff policy fuel safe-haven demand.
- Uncertainty over Fed’s path – some policymakers prefer cuts; others cautious due to inflation risks.
- Mixed US macro signals restrain upside momentum for now.
- Ongoing global trade tensions and Fed leadership uncertainty increase gold’s appeal.
Market Behavior:
- Gold holding above 3350 with intermittent rallies.
- Bulls await breakout confirmation beyond 3374 to test 3400 and potentially 3444.
Technical Outlook:
- Support levels: 3320, 3309, 3282
- Resistance levels: 3344, 3357, 3374, 3405, 3444, 3500
- Bias: Bullish medium-term; sideways short-term unless breakout above 3374 is sustained
- Intraday Strategy: Look for longs on pullbacks to 3357 with confirmation; cautious at 3374
Alternative Scenario:
- Break below 3309 reactivates bearish bias toward 3280 and 3250 zones.
📊 Summary Table: As of July 22, 2025
| Instrument | Fundamental Bias | Short-Term Trend | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Cautious bullish (ECB) | Sideways/Bearish | 1.1615, 1.1561, 1.1518 | 1.1660, 1.1714, 1.1762 | Bullish above 1.1714 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish (weak UK data) | Bearish | 1.3374, 1.3334 | 1.3485, 1.3532, 1.3619 | Bullish above 1.3485 |
| 🇯🇵 USD/JPY | Mixed (Fed vs. safe haven) | Bearish ST / Bullish MT | 148.27, 146.72, 146.13 | 149.16 | Bullish unless 146.72 breaks |
| 🇳🇿 NZD/USD | Slightly bullish | Rangebound | 0.5957, 0.5923 | 0.5996, 0.6030 | Neutral unless > 0.6030 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish (safe haven) | Bullish | 3320, 3309, 3282 | 3374, 3400, 3444 | Bullish while > 3357 |
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